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I agree, Florida is out of the dims' hands this year. Florida's unemployment rate is very low, think it is in the upper 4% and the 2002 election shows the Republicans are not taking things for granted there. Bush should win the state with 51-53% of the votes.

The states Bush will need to watchout this fall is Ohio, me think Missouri is ok, NH/NV/WV are in play, Arizona could be in play if Richardson is the Veep. States Bush will have a chance to pickup, PA (cultural more conservative, not sure gay marriage stuff will fly there), Iowa/MN/Wisconsin all too close to call, Oregon/California/Michigan are probables (not likely, but California's unemployment rate is dropping fast, Bush could pull within 5 pts in CA if the economy is good - but then again, if CA is within 5 pts, Bush gotta pick up a few Midwestern states).

One wildcard is still who Kerry will pick for Veep or better yet, will Cheney be off the ticket, if he is who will be next? Rudy? Rice? or unthinkables like McCain/Powell? I used to think Frist will be a potential pick, but I just notice that Frist wrote a book about his family tree, saying how "WHITE" his family tree is, I think this book will doom him. If Richardson is Kerry's Veep - a Bush/McCain ticket is the perfect antidote. Should be interesting indeed.

Bush is going to get a big bounce once the Republican convention starts because the media has shot its negative ammo too early. Plus his job approval rating is above 50 and will stay above 50 because the economy is improving. Also look for a HUGE boost for Bush following the military's major spring offensive in Afghanistan. They have bin Laden trapped and will kill or capture him- with luck- right at convention time.