[BlackRazor]

If you multiply the electoral votes in each state by the probability that Bush will get them (a more appropriate method of analysis), Bush's total is 418.49, not 321.

I agree that your methodology is more appropriate, but I'd double-check your 418.49 figure. I come up with 300.

[PeoplesRepublicOfWashington]

You are correct--my spreadsheet had some errors.

For giggles and laughs I performed a stochastic analysis and arrived at a mean estimate of Bush's electoral votes of 304.6, with 88.3% of the estimates meeting or exceeding the magic 270.

[supercat]

If you multiply the electoral votes in each state by the probability that Bush will get them (a more appropriate method of analysis), Bush's total is 418.49, not 321.

I agree that your methodology is more appropriate, but I'd double-check your 418.49 figure. I come up with 300.

Alabama	95%	8.6	0.4
Alaska	94%	2.8	0.2
Arizona	75%	7.5	2.5
Arkansas	70%	4.2	1.8
California	17%	9.4	45.7
Colorado	80%	7.2	1.8
Connecticut	20%	1.4	5.6
Delaware	40%	1.2	1.8
District	2%	0.1	2.9
Florida	68%	18.4	8.6
Georgia	90%	13.5	1.5
Hawaii	13%	0.5	3.5
Idaho	95%	3.8	0.2
Illinois	34%	7.1	13.9
Indiana	87%	9.6	1.4
Iowa	42%	2.9	4.1
Kansas	92%	5.5	0.5
SUBTOTAL		103.6	96.4

Kentucky	88%	7.0	1.0
Louisiana	83%	7.5	1.5
Maine	43%	1.7	2.3
Maryland	18%	1.8	8.3
Massachusetts	4%	0.5	11.5
Michigan	51%	8.7	8.3
Minnesota	37%	3.7	6.3
Mississippi	94%	5.6	0.4
Missouri	65%	7.2	3.8
Montana	88%	2.6	0.4
Nebraska	95%	4.8	0.3
Nevada	70%	3.5	1.5
New Hamps	58%	2.3	1.7
New Je	16%	2.4	12.6
New Me	58%	2.9	2.1
New	15%	4.7	26.4
North Ca	88%	13.2	1.8
SUBTOTAL		80.0	90.0

North	95%	2.8	0.2
Ohio	65%	13.0	7.0
Oklahoma	93%	6.5	0.5
Oregon	43%	3.0	4.0
Pennsylvania	51%	10.7	10.3
Rhode	5%	0.2	3.8
South Ca	82%	6.6	1.4
South	95%	2.8	0.2
Tennessee	85%	9.4	1.6
Texas	93%	31.6	2.4
Utah	95%	4.8	0.3
Vermont	7%	0.2	2.8
Virginia	85%	11.1	2.0
Washington	35%	3.8	7.2
West Vir	52%	2.6	2.4
Wisconsin	49%	4.9	5.1
Wyoming	95%	2.8	0.2
SUBTOTAL		116.9	51.1

FINAL TOTALS:

BUSH 300.4

KERRY 237.6