[PeoplesRepublicOfWashington]

If you multiply the electoral votes in each state by the probability that Bush will get them (a more appropriate method of analysis), Bush's total is 418.49, not 321.

[BlackRazor]

If you multiply the electoral votes in each state by the probability that Bush will get them (a more appropriate method of analysis), Bush's total is 418.49, not 321.

I agree that your methodology is more appropriate, but I'd double-check your 418.49 figure. I come up with 300.