2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, February 16, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Dem Electoral Votes
Alabama	95.0	9	0
Alaska	94.0	3	0
Arizona	75.0	10	0
Arkansas	70.0	6	0
California	17.0	0	55
Colorado	80.0	9	0
Connecticut	20.0	0	7
Delaware	40.0	0	3
District of Columbia	2.0	0	3
Florida	68.0	27	0
Georgia	90.0	15	0
Hawaii	13.0	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	34.0	0	21
Indiana	87.0	11	0
Iowa	42.0	0	7
Kansas	91.5	6	0
Kentucky	88.0	8	0
Louisiana	83.0	9	0
Maine	43.0	0	4
Maryland	17.5	0	10
Massachusetts	4.0	0	12
Michigan	51.0	17	0
Minnesota	37.0	0	10
Mississippi	94.0	6	0
Missouri	65.0	11	0
Montana	88.0	3	0
Nebraska	95.0	5	0
Nevada	70.0	5	0
New Hampshire	58.0	4	0
New Jersey	16.0	0	15
New Mexico	58.0	5	0
New York	15.0	0	31
North Carolina	88.0	15	0
North Dakota	95.0	3	0
Ohio	65.0	20	0
Oklahoma	93.0	7	0
Oregon	43.0	0	7
Pennsylvania	51.0	21	0
Rhode Island	5.0	0	4
South Carolina	82.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	85.0	11	0
Texas	93.0	34	0
Utah	95.0	5	0
Vermont	7.0	0	3
Virginia	85.0	13	0
Washington	35.0	0	11
West Virginia	52.0	5	0
Wisconsin	49.0	0	10
Wyoming	95.0	3	0
Totals		321	217

[no dems]

One thing we must remember: Since the 2000 election, the census has taken ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES away from states like New York and Michigan and they have gone to Bush states such as Texas, Florida, etc. As a matter of fact, all the state that gained Electoral Votes were Bush states. All the states that lost Electoral Votes were Gore states. THAT'S GOOD NEWS FOR OUR TEAM.

[nathanbedford]

Try to rreduce this to its irreducable, I woulld say that 1. If Kerry loses any Gore state he loses. 2. If Bush can hold Mo. and Ohio. he probably squeeks in.

This is so because the demographic shift in the census would cover a loss by Bush in W. Va. Ark, N. Hamp. or Ky. But if Bush can hold Iowa and Mo. he will very likely also hold these small border states.

If Bush can take any one of Minn. Wis. Mich or Pa, the whole presumed Kerry strategy will disintegrate which I believe will be a rust belt, mining belt, border state strategy with perhaps a try at Fla. and Ariz.

So Mo. and Ohio bear watching and maximum effort and money. If I were Bush, I would concentrate at least 25% of resources in these two states.

[KantianBurke]

Interesting take on OH and MO being the key battleground states. Posited that very same theory a few weeks back. Let me find the older threads...

[AuH2ORepublican]

"As a matter of fact, all the state that gained Electoral Votes were Bush states. All the states that lost Electoral Votes were Gore states."

---

Not quite. California gained 1 EV, and it was most certainly a Gore state. And Oklahoma, Mississippi, Ohio and Indiana each lost one EV, and they were all Bush states. But overall, Bush states gained 7 EVs and Gore states lost 7 EVs, so if Bush wins the same 30 states as last time he would have 278 EVs instead of 271.

[CSM]

Good information on your links. 115K votes is doable, you very well may be correct. I will keep my fingers crossed.

[CSM]

I hope I am wrong. It will be close, and I can hope.

[KantianBurke]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1075491/posts

post #36

[KantianBurke]

Alabama - R
Alaska - R
Arizona - R
Arkansas - R
California - D
Colorado - R
Connecticut - D
Delaware - D
District of Columbia - D
Florida - R
Georgia - R
Hawaii - D
Idaho - R
Illinois - D
Indiana - R
Iowa - D
Kansas - R
Kentucky - R
Louisiana - R
Maine - D
Maryland - D
Massachusetts - D
Michigan - D
Minnesota - D
Mississippi - R
Missouri - D
Montana - R
Nebraska - R
Nevada - R
New Hampshire - R
New Jersey - D
New Mexico - D
New York - D
North Carolina - R
North Dakota - R
Ohio - D
Oklahoma - R
Oregon - D
Pennsylvania - D
Rhode Island - D
South Carolina - R
South Dakota - R
Tennessee - R
Texas - R
Utah - R
Vermont - D
Virginia - R
Washington - D
West Virginia - R
Wisconsin - D
Wyoming - R

Electoral Totals: Rat gets 291, Bush gets 247. If Dubya signs the AWB and Kerry picks Gephardt (who brings in OH and MO) for VP, this result coming to pass becomes quite possible.

http://www.archives.gov/federal_register/electoral_college/calculator.html

[chimera]

I'd put OH as a tossup at this point. Big demographic shifts here. That and the unemployment issue will hurt Bush.

The GOP can't take anything for granted this time around. Without FL and OH we're done. Dreaming about MI, PA, and IL is nice but just whistling past the graveyard. Rats are too strong and well-organized in those states. All have been trending Rat lately.

[Ingtar]

Bush in Illinois, Alabama, and California = 0% chance at the moment. These states, and supposedly three others, have filing deadlines before President Bush will be certified. I am trying to find out the names of the other three states.

[TSgt]

Ohio has Taft to thank for being a battleground state.

He's given Republicans a very bad name.

I’m going to get out and do what I can for Bush. I already have bumper stickers on all of my cars.

I was stopped by the local media, Channel 12, during lunch while downtown Cincinnati and asked if the election were to be held today who would I vote for. I of course responded with Bush due to his work on the war on terror and the economy.

[Ingtar]

West Virginia and DC.

[SamAdams76]

Bottom line is this: If Bush can just hold on to the states he won last time, he wins. If he can't, then maybe he doesn't deserve to win.

Personally, I am not worried at all. Not complacent. But not worried either. Kerry has to pretty much run the table (of non-Bush 2000 states) and then pick up one or more Bush states.

[Gunder]

I agree with most of these, although I think Minnesota may go for Bush (very narrowly). I'm worried about Pennsylvania.

[raloxk]

also, of the close states, only two, FL and NH went for Bush. IA, WA, OR, NM, MI, PA, WI, MN all went Gore. Kerry has to win all those, plus even if he won NH and WV Bush would have 270. OH and FL could go Kerry, OH more than FL I think because FL's economy is doing quite well while OH has lost lots of jobs.

[Owen]

It is analyses like this that point where the resources go. The movement of Electoral Votes from the Census is a big advantage, but it is not enough unless we pick up a battleground state or two. That is absolutely required. We must have this or there is no margin.

What are you doing about it? Many of us live in states that are safe, and frankly, there our activism is not very important. We must export our activism. Be prepared to drive to an adjacent battleground state and GOTV on election day. Drive elderly conservative veterans to the polls. See to it NOW that they are registered. Contact that state's GOP for organizational support.

But the time is now. And it is not near home. This will require sacrifice. Put in at work to have Election day off, now. Know where to go to pick up voters.

I live in Utah and I plan to help in Northern Nevada, which is marginal. Find a marginal state and help.

[FRgal4u]

Look pretty encouraging from those who bet their real money onto the outcome. Interesting.

One think worth noting is beware of the Kerry bubble. Kerry is riding on a wave of momentum, not unlike the tech stocks of early 2000, people voting for Kerry (buy tech stocks) because everyone is doing it. People ignore why the vote for Kerry (other than he can beat Bush) - sorta like buying tech stocks at 200X earnings, people buy the stocks not because they are cheap or fundamentally sound, but rather it keep on going higher. As long as the national polls for Kerry look good (ahead of Bush or stay competitive), the dims will keep on voting for Kerry regardless.

Now here is the dilemma, much like the collapse of NASDAQ in March 2000, what goes up must come down! The issue is what will collapse the Kerry bubble and when will that happen. Most voters don't know where Kerry stands on issues (people actually think he is a moderate LOL) and the minute that Bush is pulling ahead of the polls is the exact moment dawn on these people who voted for Kerry on beating Bush (but not necessarily on issues). What will they do?

Finally, one has to be very careful on polls. In 1999 (the year before the GOP primary), Bush was ahead of Gore by double digits (an avg of 12-14 pts when Bush announced his candidacy) 0- a period when most voters don't know who Bush is, just know he is a likable guy. Even after the GOP primary (after the poundings by the media, McCain - blah blah), Bush was ahead of Gore by 10-12 pts. So the Bush 44, Kerry 48 or Bush 43, Kerry 51 stuff seems very tame indeed. It won't take much to flip back to Bush 48-51 Kerry 42-44.

If I were the WH Bush campaign team, I'd want the Kerry bubble to continue. Kerry is untested in the primaries by his opponents (look at last nite's debate, nobody come out swing at him and Kerry has long dreadful, droning answers on Iraq, patriot act blah blah).

If Dean is the Amazon dot com of tech stocks, Kerry is more like a Lucent of techs. Amazon peaked in late 1999 when TIME has its CEO as the person of the year (vs the dual magazine covers of Dean in Dec 2003). Lucent was a slow boring company selling boring stuff, dressed up by the momentum folks and only get busted from 70 to single digits in 2000. Should be interesting in the months ahead.

[Holden Magroin]

I think you're all dreaming. Bush will lose Arizona and Nevada because of Hispanic population growth alone; New Mexico is now firmly in the Democrat column. If Bush gets his way on amnesty, Republicans can say "adios" to the Southwest forever.

As for Ohio and Missouri, they were toss-ups to begin with but have been hemmoraging jobs like crazy. In all likelihood, that won't help Bush. To make matters worse, Bush's Treasury Secretary, John Snow, shot his boss in the foot the other day when he remarked that it was a good thing that American jobs were going overseas. Now Kerry is going to go around the Midwest repeating this statement. Dubya deserves to lose just for appointing loose cannons like Snow and O'Neil. That such dithering idiots got to be the CEOs of Fortune 500 companies is incredible. ,p> Meanwhile, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are trending further away from Republicans. If Bush couldn't win Wisconsin and Michigan with movers and shakers like Tommy Thompson and John Engel pulling strings for him, I don't see how he'll win with popular Democrat governors and energized unions campaigning against him. Once again, we see the supposed genius Karl Rove spreading the word that Republicans are "exploring ways to win without Pennsylvania and Michigan." Good luck.

Then there's the South. Conventional wisdom is that this is solid Republican territory. Not so. So monolithically Democrat is the black vote that all a Democrat has to do to win a Deep South state like Mississippi is get 30% of the white vote. If Kerry wins one out of ten South Carolinians who voted for Bush, he's in like Flynn. That's not inconceivable: some of these Southern states - South Carolina in particular - have been crippled by free trade policies that this President supports.

As for the upper South, things just get worse. Bush barely won Arkansas and Tennessee the last time around. Even in Virginia, Bush only got 52% of the vote.

The outlook is bleak. The National Guard and WMD scandals have taken a toll on Bush's popularity. What propped up Bush's approval ratings even in the midst of corporate scandals, a recession, and the turmoil in Iraq - events that would've doomed any other President - was the perception that Bush was a man of integrity. If there are indictments over the leak that Ambassdor Joe Wilson's wife was a CIA agent, that could be the coup de grace for Bush's re-election hopes.

The bitter irony of all this is that the legacy of the first Republican-led government in 50 years will be an amnesty bill that will give Democrats a lock on the White House for generations.

[Milligan]

Don't rely on chance.

[My Favorite Headache]

CNN/ABC/CBS/FOX/NBC/NPR has already called the following states for John Kerry: Winner in New York, Mass,Connecticut,California,Michigan,D.C.,Hawaii,Delaware,Vermont, New Jersey,and Washington State.

Do the math...the rest are in play.