[nathanbedford]

Try to rreduce this to its irreducable, I woulld say that 1. If Kerry loses any Gore state he loses. 2. If Bush can hold Mo. and Ohio. he probably squeeks in.

This is so because the demographic shift in the census would cover a loss by Bush in W. Va. Ark, N. Hamp. or Ky. But if Bush can hold Iowa and Mo. he will very likely also hold these small border states.

If Bush can take any one of Minn. Wis. Mich or Pa, the whole presumed Kerry strategy will disintegrate which I believe will be a rust belt, mining belt, border state strategy with perhaps a try at Fla. and Ariz.

So Mo. and Ohio bear watching and maximum effort and money. If I were Bush, I would concentrate at least 25% of resources in these two states.

[KantianBurke]

Interesting take on OH and MO being the key battleground states. Posited that very same theory a few weeks back. Let me find the older threads...

[KantianBurke]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1075491/posts

post #36