Kerry 45% Bush 44% (Rasmussen Reports)

RasmussenReports.com ^ | Friday, January 30, 2004 | Rasmussen Reports

[Momaw Nadon]

January 30, 2004--Massachusetts Senator John Kerry has taken a one-point lead over President George W. Bush in the latest Rasmussen Reports tracking survey of 1,500 Likely Voters. On the Friday morning after New Hampshire, the Democrat's front runner attracts support from 45% of the nation's voters while the President earns 44% support. Kerry's lead among Democrats is also growing as the nominating process looks forward to February 3.

It has been a remarkable two weeks for the Senator. He trailed the President by 15-points immediately prior to the Iowa caucuses.

Rasmussen Reports will release more detailed comparisons of how the voting public compares Bush and Kerry later today.

There are several reasons for the Senator's surge. Initially, his gains reflected the fact that Kerry became the front runner on the night of the Iowa caucuses. Another is that the Democrats have enjoyed a surge of positive publicity resulting from coverage of Iowa and New Hampshire.

At the same time, things have not gone as well for the President. Just before Iowa, Bush introduced an immigration proposal that was not well received. His State-of-the-Union address was overshadowed by the Democratic nominating process, and confidence in the economy has been declining.

Some Republicans indicate that they believe the public will eventually reject Kerry because he is a Massachusetts liberal. However, at this point in the process, just 37% of Americans identify the Massachusetts Senator as a liberal. Thirty-nine percent (39%) of Americans view him as a moderate while 11% say he is a political conservative.

From this point forward, Rasmussen Reports will continue to monitor the race between Bush and Kerry on a daily basis. However, we will no longer measure ballot tests for other Democrats until and unless the results of future primaries suggest another contender could topple Kerry.

In the race for the Democratic nomination, Kerry now has twice the support of his nearest rivals.

In a match between President Bush and a generic Democrat, the Democrat now leads 49% to 42%.

In addition to our daily political tracking, Rasmussen Reports measures the economic confidence of American consumers and Investors on a daily basis.

The national telephone survey of 1,500 Likely voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports over the past three nights. Margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

[NYCVirago]

I don't buy any of these polls which show Kerry ahead, simply because I doubt many of the voters even know who he is, let alone his record.

[babygene]

This is not surprising to me...

Bush seems to be doing everything possible to get democrat votes. Of course he will never get them. At the same time, he is loosing conservative votes by not supporting (or at least being soft on) conservative issues.

[DM1]

Kerry is dangerous this will be close and i give Bush a 50 50 chance
Kerry should not be underestimated

[hershey]

Ann Coulter put it beautifully: Kerry's a cad and a gigilo who's made a career of marrying rich men's daughters and widows. How in the world does that qualify him to be president?

[xzins]

This is with Kerry getting maximum coverage, the other dems getting maximum coverage, and everyone (including the media) bashing President Bush.

He has not responded at all yet.

He is simply building his war chest for the right time.

[George W. Bush]

Squat.

Advantageous to Kerry. Probably that's Rasmussen's intent.

[dogbyte12]

Gotta be careful with Rasmussen. For those around from 2000, his poll was called Portrait of America. While everybody else had the race as being extremely tight, Rasmussen had Bush blowing out Gore.

Many many freepers tried to ignore all the other polls and rely on Rasmussen and were pissed/angered/chagrined when his prediction of a Bush blow out didn't happen.

I don't know if because of that lesson, they have now adjusted too far over to favor the democrat or what, but if we go by what they did in 2000, this poll is going to be worthless.

[JSloth]

"How in the world does that qualify him to be president?"

Well, I heard that he is a Viet Nam vet (although it's just a rumor)

[dirtbiker]

Have those people who voted for him actually seen him? Or listened to him? What are they thinking?

They are NOT thinking, that is why this Lurch Adams lookalike is doing so well. Bush hasn't and isn't going to spend campaign money to counter ANY Dem yet, they haven't nominated anyone yet! Patience, my friends, patience!

[isom35]

skull & bones 100%

[Rennes Templar]

True. He's like Clinton, only with an air of credibility. Scary.

[hershey]

You notice the media's pretending the Kurds were never gassed. We don't talk about that, ever! It's like the elephant in the living room. The liberals will spin the big lie about WMD until they're blue in the face, hoping the general dumb public is dumb enough to believe them. Their strategy is simple: Keep up the daily drumbeat about US casualties in Iraq, link same to Bush's 'quagmire', and 'lies about leading us to war'. Or Bush's 'stupidity' in believing anything the CIA said about WMD intel. Kerry will drag that Vietnam vet friend of his around the country and brag about his 'superior' qualifications to wear a combat uniform on an aircraft carrier (God forbid that Bush use that footage! The dems are terrified of those images). Couple that with Clinton taking credit for destroying any and all Iraqui WMD's that ever existed, and it's a wonder they don't take credit for the sun coming up in the morning.

[b4its2late]

1,500 Likely Voters

More like unlikely.

[Southflanknorthpawsis]

BTW, I called him that a week ago right here.

[Recovering_Democrat]

Damn. Bush ought to just resign and turn the keys of the White House over to Kerry. <\sarcasm>

[dr_who_2]

There was a lot that the public didn't know about Bill about this time in the year 1992. The Bush in the WH back then was also fast using up his reserve of good will with the electorate and conservatives alike.

[Russ]

From all the comments I've been reading here on FR bashing Bush the last two weeks I would think these poll results would have Freepers dancing in the streets. You might get what you've been wishing for...

[JoeSchem]

So, the Democratic presidential nomination race is over, and it's been decided that Kerry will be the one to select Hillary as his vice-presidential running mate, and then mysteriously die before taking office.

[Don Joe]

There's no substitute for keeping your base happy.

Didn't you hear the news? The base doesn't matter anymore. See my tagline for the new policy.

[Jorge]

No problem folks. This is a poll taken before the Kerry dirt is released.

Yes, I heard Vietnam vets say Kerry smeared them all when he came back and became anti-war, and that he was even connected to a Jane Fonda group.

This alone will turn the "Vietnam vet" advantage that is benefiting him now, into a real liability.