Al-Qaida will do whatever it takes to assure Bush is re-elected (unbelievable gag alert)

The Salt Lake Tribune ^ | 1/21/2004 | Gwynne Dyer

[Utah Girl]

I have always admired Edward Luttwak, one of the clearest American thinkers in the strategy/security game, and I have nothing but contempt for the U.S. Homeland Security Department (Heimatsicherheitsabteilung, in the original German) and its ridiculous color-coded threat levels.

So I started reading a recent article by the former on the latter with genuine pleasure, anticipating that Luttwak was going to condemn Homeland Security for its habit of running up the levels from puce to magenta and back down to mauve, shredding Americans' nerves with warnings nobody can respond to in a useful way, for no better reason than to cover its own bureaucratic behind.

That's just what he did, and the article was rollicking along with me cheering Luttwak on every line of the way -- when his whole argument suddenly veered off into the ditch, rolled three times, and lay there bleeding.

What he said was: "The successive warnings of ill-defined threats that frighten many Americans are achieving the very aim of the terrorists. Terrorism cannot materially weaken the United States, so their entire purpose is precisely to terrorize, to make Americans unhappy, in the hope that this will induce them to accept terrorist demands."

If one of the most clever security analysts in the country has got no further than this in his thinking about what the terrorists want, then it's no surprise that 60 or 70 percent of Luttwak's fellow countrymen believe that Saddam Hussein sent the terrorists. He thinks that the terrorists are trying to make Americans unhappy in order to "induce them to accept terrorist demands"? What demands could the Islamist terrorists of al-Qaida possibly make that the United States could conceivably grant?

Fly them all to Havana? Convert to Islam? Put the money in unmarked notes in a brown paper bag and leave it behind the radiator? The whole notion that this is some sort of giant extortion operation is as naive (or as wilfully ignorant) as the Bush administration's pet explanation that the terrorists attack the U.S. because "they hate our freedoms." Unfortunately, the post-9-11 intellectual climate in the United States has prevented any serious discussion of the terrorists' goals and their strategies for achieving them.

In the post-9-11 chill, even conceding that the terrorist leaders are intelligent people with rational goals seemed somehow disloyal to America's dead. Instead, it was assumed that their fanaticism made them too blind or stupid for purposeful action at the strategic level. Even terrorist groups as marginal and self-deluded as the Baader-Meinhof Gang and the Weathermen had a more or less coherent analysis, political goals and some notion of how their attacks moved them toward those goals, but the public debate in the U.S. grants none of that to al-Qaida.

Yet the Islamist radicals have always been completely open about their goals. They want to take power in the Muslim countries (phase one of the project), and then unite the entire Muslim world in a final struggle to overthrow the power of the West (phase two). They are still stuck in phase one, with little to show for it despite 30 years of trying, so in the early 1990s Osama bin Laden and his colleagues switched from head-on assaults on the regimes in Muslim countries to direct attacks on Western targets. Yet their first-phase goal remains seizing power in the Muslim world, not some fantasy about "bringing the West to its knees."

Terrorists generally rant about their goals but stay silent about their strategies, so now we have to do a little work for ourselves. If the real goal is still revolutions that bring Islamist radicals to power, then how does attacking the West help? Well, the U.S. in particular may be goaded into retaliating by bombing or even invading various Muslim countries -- and in doing so, may drive enough aggrieved Muslims into the arms of the Islamist radicals that their long-stalled revolutions against local regimes finally get off the ground.

Most analysts outside the United States long ago concluded that that was the principal motive for the 9-11 attack. They would add that by giving the Bush administration a reason to attack Afghanistan, and at least a flimsy pretext for invading Iraq, al-Qaida's attacks have paid off handsomely. U.S. troops are now the unwelcome military rulers of more than 50 million Muslims in Afghanistan and Iraq, and people there and elsewhere are turning to the Islamist radicals as the only force in the Muslim world that is willing and able to defy American power.

It is astonishing how little this is understood in the United States. I know of no American analyst who has even made the obvious point that al-Qaida wants Bush to win next November's presidential election and continue his interventionist policies in the Middle East for another four years, and will act to save Bush from defeat if necessary.

It probably would not do so unless Bush's number were slipping badly, for any terrorist attack on U.S. soil carries the risk of stimulating resentment against the current administration for failing to prevent it.

Certainly another attack on the scale of 9-11 would risk producing that result, even if al-Qaida had the resources for it. But a simple truck bomb in some U.S. city center a few months before the election, killing just a couple of dozen Americans, could drive voters back into Bush's arms and turn a tight election around. Al-Qaida is clever enough for that.

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Gwynne Dyer is a London-based independent journalist whose articles are published in 45 countries.

[Utah Girl]

Words fail me. Except it must be the current dem or leftist theory or something. Mario Cuomo ranted and raved today about the Bushes being in bed with Al Quaida because they had investments in the same international company. Can the Dems get any more out of control???

[texasflower]

Can the Dems get any more out of control???

They seem to have an endless capacity for idiocy.

[11B3]

More alternate reality from the British left. Her "logic" is so screwed up that it defies explanation. The things she cites as being the misconception of Al Qaida's goals are in fact the real ones, not some reverse psychology experiment that she hs in mind. The Caliphate - worldwide - is the final goal of the Islamists, with everyone converted to Islam or dead. Period.

[weegee]

What demands could the Islamist terrorists of al-Qaida possibly make that the United States could conceivably grant?

They could demand the release of the convicted 1993 WTC bombers. They could demand the release of the Gitmo terrorists.

Such demands are made all the time for the release of spies and terrorists. Tourists are kidnapped and held for ransom when money gets tight.

Seems to me that we were told that we wouldn't have had problems with the Middle East if we'd just pull out support of Israel.

The attacks on civilians in Iraq and on our troops have been designed to get the U.S. to weaken resolve and pull out of Iraq.

Yeah. There's nothing that Al Qaida could demand. < /sarcasm >

[lainde]

Ditto!

[zarf]

No, this just the old sneering, eye rolling left.

9/11 never happened, stop the militarism...let's move on and hand out condoms.

[weegee]

Unfortunately, the post-9-11 intellectual climate in the United States has prevented any serious discussion of the terrorists' goals and their strategies for achieving them.

I guess after reading her hit piece that Al Qaida goaded us into war by destroying the World Trade Center, attacking the Pentagon, attempting an attack on another Washington, D.C. target, and killing over 3,000 people. We were tricked.

Bill Clinton had the right response all along. Do nothing. Yep. That tactic sure made us safe. What a big time clymer...

[weegee]

The things she cites as being the misconception of Al Qaida's goals are in fact the real ones, not some reverse psychology experiment that she hs in mind. The Caliphate - worldwide - is the final goal of the Islamists, with everyone converted to Islam or dead. Period.

Not so different than the goal of global socialists. "Enemy of my enemy is my friend..."

[MJY1288]

The liberals around the world are following Howard Dean's lead. The Texas State Legislature is a fine example of what happens after Bush has been in office for a while.

After Bush is reelected in a landslide and gains 5 more seats in the Senate this coming November, I look for the Senate democrats to flee to France when Bush nominates his first Supreme Court Justice next year.

The U.S. Senate Democrats will be reduced to the same level as those cowardly Texas State Legislators who fled the State of Texas in order to block the will of the majority. George W. Bush seems to have a way of driving the democrats over the cliff, I'm not sure how he does it, but the fact is, George W. Bush's path to the White House has been a costly journey for the Democrats, the 2002 mid term elections were costly for the democrats and the upcoming General elections seem to be following the same pattern.

The Democrats are on the brink of a total meltdown and this will be a beautiful thing to watch unfold.

[MJY1288]

Here another fun one to read

[endthematrix]

Nothing like US policy being dictated by Al Qaida's Futurist Society! Those explosive devices in the streets causing civilian casualties sure don't help the terrorist recruiting campaign.

[Grampa Dave]

This writer is a real PIA socialist.

[Dallas59]

"Certainly another attack on the scale of 9-11 would risk producing that result, even if al-Qaida had the resources for it. But a simple truck bomb in some U.S. city center a few months before the election, killing just a couple of dozen Americans, could drive voters back into Bush's arms and turn a tight election around. Al-Qaida is clever enough for that."

I am lost for words. The coldness...the lack of concern other than for the concern of what Bush will do. Amazing. Another one infected with Bushaphobia...everything is connected to Bush.

[JLS]

Anyone who can simply skip by and assert that Al-Quaida's plan was to have the Taliban government removed will say anything.

[Blue_Ridge_Mtn_Geek]

More alternate reality from the British left. Her "logic" is so screwed up that it defies explanation. The things she cites as being the misconception of Al Qaida's goals are in fact the real ones, not some reverse psychology experiment that she hs in mind. The Caliphate - worldwide - is the final goal of the Islamists, with everyone converted to Islam or dead. Period.

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
Gwyne Dwyer is a male (I almost wrote "man").

[Free Vulcan]

Unfortunately Mz. Dyer, we have bin Laden and cronies own quotes as to what they want to do. After they kick the US out of the Mideast, unite the Muslims, and bring down the West, they want to conquer it and everything else for themselves. Their only goal is world Islamic domination, and they have made that clear. Anything else is nothing but your fantasies.

[JoelM]

"What demands could the Islamist terrorists of al-Qaida possibly make that the United States could conceivably grant?

They could demand the release of the convicted 1993 WTC bombers. They could demand the release of the Gitmo terrorists.

Such demands are made all the time for the release of spies and terrorists. Tourists are kidnapped and held for ransom when money gets tight.

Seems to me that we were told that we wouldn't have had problems with the Middle East if we'd just pull out support of Israel.

The attacks on civilians in Iraq and on our troops have been designed to get the U.S. to weaken resolve and pull out of Iraq.

Yeah. There's nothing that Al Qaida could demand. < /sarcasm >"

Interesting. They've demanded all of this? When?

Oh you people are probably right. These people *must* be idiots. It's not like 9/11 took any mental effort to pull off.

Sarcasm? Take a wild one...

[Blue_Ridge_Mtn_Geek]

http://www.gwynnedyer.net/

OK, so I can't spell. The writer is still a guy, kind of.

[Blue_Ridge_Mtn_Geek]

Biography of Gwynne Dyer
http://www.gwynnedyer.net/

Gwynne Dyer was born in Newfoundland in 1943. After studying at universities in Canada, the United States and the United Kingdom, he received his PhD in military and Middle Eastern history from the University of London.

Dyer served in the Canadian, American, and British navies. He taught military history and war studies for two years at the Canadian Forces College in Toronto and for four years at the Royal Military Academy in Sandhurst.

Since he left teaching in 1973, Dyer has worked as a freelance journalist, broadcaster and lecturer. His syndicated columns on international affairs appear in a dozen languages in nearly 200 newspapers published in more than 40 countries around the world.

In 1980, Gwynne Dyer and Tina Viljoen collaborated on a seven-part television series for the National Film Board of Canada (NFB): War first telecast in Canada in 1983. Eventually, War was shown in 45 countries and one episode, "The Profession of Arms," was nominated for an Academy Award. With Viljoen, Dyer wrote a book based on the series: War, published in 1985. For the NFB and the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC),Dyer and Viljoen again collaborated on Defence of Canada, a three-part series aired in 1986. Their book The Defence of Canada: In the Arms of the Empire was published in 1990. In 1994 Dyer completed a four-part series, The Human Race, which looked at the roots, nature and future of human politics. In 1995, his three-part series on peacekeeping in Bosnia, Protection Force, first aired.

Dyer has also made several radio documentaries, including a seven-hour series, The Gorbachev Revolution, and a six-hour series entitled Millennium, which aired on the CBC in the spring of 1996.

Gwynne Dyer is frequent lecturer. His reflections on Globalization and the Nation-State were published in 1996 by the Canadian Institute of International Affairs in its series Behind the Headlines.

[tallhappy]

Anyone who can simply skip by and assert that Al-Quaida's plan was to have the Taliban government removed will say anything.

It is ludicrous. The author actually says they wanted the US to attack Afghanistan so it's people would then turn to Islamic radicals.

I guess the Taliban weren't already radical enough.