Peggy Noonan: Iowa May Be Howard's End

Opinion Journal ^ | 01/15/04 | Peggy Noonan

[Pokey78]

One way to look at life is that we're all waiting. You're born, you grow into the autonomy of adulthood, and then you have to find a way to pass your time until a) you enter your real life, the one that never ends and is full of joy, or b) you enter the meaningless black void that is death and the silence of the tomb. The trick lies in finding a way to spend your time that is pleasurable, satisfying and honorable. What does this have to do with political prognostication? I really don't know. I just know that political pundits have chosen, as their way to spend the heart of their adult years, gathering the latest facts on and trying to explain politics.

[Pokey78]

Peggy ping!

[hunter112]

It is true the press wants a race. They don't want to spend the next three months filing "Dean Wins Again" and "Why Kerry Failed to Ignite."

Yes, there is the need to sell papers. But, for the reporters, there is a greater need to get a Rat back in the White House, they're even sicker of writing stories about Bush looking good than they are about spending a few months before the Rat convention writing the above headlines. If they lowball Howie enough in Iowa and New Hampshire, and he performs better than the almighty "expectations", he gets a springboard to the nomination, and can reunite the party sooner.

What else to do with the dirt that the anti-Deans are leaking out? Just lowball Howie, knowing that the last minute groping allegations didn't hurt Arnold, either.

[1066AD]

The last time a viable Democrat rose, in 1992, the columnists for the newsmagazines and profile writers for the newspapers loved Bill Clinton with a throbbing love.
LOL
Saw Kerry, Gephardt on the news tonight. Neither has a stroke of appeal as Presidential material for me.

[Sir Gawain]

the columnists for the newsmagazines and profile writers for the newspapers loved Bill Clinton with a throbbing love.

Ewwww.

[Az Joe]

She has got Dean pegged right. He is one not lovable guy. And his wife! Oww! it hurts to look at that woman.

[kingu]

No, no, no, no. Dean has to live for at least a couple more weeks. Then the party can dump him, because he'll have enough support to become a third party candidate and ensure that Bush carries every state.

[Torie]

The charm quotient is low among 3 of the big 4 Dem aspirants (except Dean in his best moments rather than his bad ones), but then Gore lacked charm too, and he ran even with Bush. Edwards has charm, and is struggling rather late to acquire some gravitas. If he toned down his peculiar accent, he might just have a chance. But in the end, it will be a gut call as to who the Dems want to carry the banner in what they strongly suspect is a losing fight. It is that instinct that the nomination is not a real ticket to the presidency, that makes this race so volatile. Everybody wants their own message pushed for later.

[Brimack34]

The polls have hardly moved and even Brit has drank the media coolaide. I thought he was above that BS. Dean will win calm down.

[spokeshave]

" The journalistic establishment has become an anti-Dean mover."

Yeah.....and Shrillary working the phones again

[xzins]

I will not vote for the DemocRat candidate. At the same time there are only 2 candidates really who have a chance of winning....the Repub and the Dem.

Unless we can have the Dems nominate someone who is ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN to lose, then I'm in favor, for the sake of the nation of seeing that candidate nominated who is closest to being a real American. I think that's debatable about who really is (Liebermann?), but I'm certain it's better for the nation.

We don't think any of these others have a chance to win because Bush is so strong, but the truth is that you never know. I wish Zell Miller were the Dem choice. Then I wouldn't fear for the nation, if the dems were to pull one out of the hat.

[GOPJ]

It's hard to comment on perfection. Bump.

[jwalsh07]

Dean is fading fast in Iowa, the long knives are hurting him but he's got a pretty good organization on the ground from what the heads tell me. He'll pull throug in Iowa but it will be close which will weaken him.

Thus far he's holding strong in NH.

Whoever gets the nomination is gonna take a 200 million dollar beating about the noggin bu the Bush campaign and his fellow travelers are doing all the research. Tough being a challenger to an incumbent President, real tough when the perception of a good economy is starting to permeate at the 7/11 gas pumps.

[Congressman Billybob]

Remember the story about Joe Trippi stealing the Iowa caucuses for Mondale away from Cranston, whse people had bought the tickets? Busloads of Trippi people showed up at the checkpoints with Cranston posters on their busses. They got the tickets handed to them. And Trippi is proud of that achievement.

In short, Dean will use dirty tricks, just as he has been accused of in the past. He will get at least a 5% bump over the last reputable pre-caucus polls. And then he will claim that he "did better than expected."

I think Noonan may be right, that the press which is mostly Democrats, doesn't like Dean because they realize he will pull a Dukakis in the general election. And the press wants a Democrat candidate who has a snowball's chance of success. But that will have no more effect on Dean's getting the nomination, than the same principles had on Dukakis' march to his nomination.

Congressman Billybob

Click here, then click the blue CFR button, to join the anti-CFR effort (or visit the "Hugh & Series, Critical & Pulled by JimRob" thread).

[southernnorthcarolina]

Edwards has charm, and is struggling rather late to acquire some gravitas. If he toned down his peculiar accent, he might just have a chance.

Accent? Edwards has an accent? I never noticed.

I'm kidding, of course. I'm a native North Carolinian, and I don't sound anything like he does. Do I? Please, someone, tell me I don't.

[Torie]

The Dem establishment really, really doesn't want Dean. They want someone that has a lower standard deviation of risk of catastrophe down ballot. But since the sense is that the nominee is likely to lose, that makes things more volatile, because folks are more willing to just go for the message. Kerry might be dangerous if only he didn't seem quite so much or a patrician scold. He reminds me of a couple of my female elite grammar school teachers.

I am surprised that Dean has faded quite as fast as he has. I thought he had more teflon. He coasted in the last debate in Iowa however, and that hurt him. He needed to lash out in a focused and controlled way, and did not. He needed a bit of McCain in him for that. McCain was good in debates in projecting effective controlled rage. Of course, off the podium, he was anything but disciplined. And so it goes.

[jla]

^

[Torie]

I don't mean to sound like a bigot. His accent annoys, but I can get over that. But it is a negative up in my zip code. And his NC accent is really quite peculiar. I have never really heard that strain before.

[KellyAdmirer]

Gephardt strikes me as the least bizarre of the bunch, with some genuine middle-America qualities to him, liberal and phony as he is. But I think the Democrats would be best off nominating Edwards, attempting to peel off a Southern state or two now and maybe building something there for the future. No way any of them wins without something dramatic happening, but a Dean or Clark or Kerry in the White House, let alone Kucinich, would be outright freaky.

[garandgal]

The Des Moines Register is exceptionally liberal. I am certain that their editorial board is idealogically in tune with Dean...probably even more so with Kucinich.

I about fell over when they endorsed Edwards. As they conduct in-depth, private, interviews with each candidate...I can only conclude that they really feel he's the only one who has a chance to to beat President Bush (and trust me...that is their wholly consuming motivation).