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Melting Ice 'Will Swamp Capitals' (Global Warming)
Independent (UK) ^ | 12-7-2003 | Geoffrey Lean

Posted on 12/06/2003 4:05:59 PM PST by blam

Melting ice 'will swamp capitals'

By Geoffrey Lean Environment Editor
07 December 2003

Measures to fight global warming will have to be at least four times stronger than the Kyoto Protocol if they are to avoid the melting of the polar ice caps, inundating central London and many of the world's biggest cities, concludes a new official report.

The report, by a German government body, says that even if it is fully implemented, the protocol will only have a "marginal attenuating effect" on the climate change. But last week even this was thrown into doubt amid contradictory signals from the Russian government as to whether it will allow the treaty to come into effect.

Global warming already kills 150,000 people a year worldwide and the rate of climate change is soon likely to exceed anything the planet has seen "in the last million years" says the report, produced by the German Advisory Council on Global Change for a meeting of the world's environment ministers to consider the future of the treaty in Milan this week.

It concludes that the protocol must urgently be brought into force, but only as a first step, insisting that "catastrophic" climate change "can now only be prevented if climate protection targets are set at substantially higher levels than those agreed internationally until now".

The report, written by eight leading German professors, says that "dangerous climatic changes" will become "highly probable" if the world's average temperature is allowed to increase to more than 2 degrees centigrade above what it was before the start of the Industrial Revolution.

Beyond that level the West Antarctic ice sheet and the Greenland ice cap would begin gradually to melt away, eventually raising sea levels world wide by up to 30 feet, submerging vast areas of land and key cities worldwide. London, New York, Miami, Bombay, Calcutta, Sydney, Shanghai, Lagos and Tokyo would be among those largely submerged by such a rise.

Above this mark too, other "devastating" and "irreversible" changes would be likely to take place. These include a cessation of the Indian monsoon and the ending of the Gulf Stream, which would dramatically worsen the climate in Britain and western Europe, even as the world warms. Another risk is the so-called "runaway greenhouse" where rising temperatures lead to the release of huge reservoirs methane stored in permafrost and the oceans, adding to global warming and starting a self-reinforcing cycle that would eventually make the earth uninhabitable.

To avoid such catastrophe, the report says that industrialised countries will have to cut emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide by at least 20 per cent by 2020, and by up to 60 per cent by 2050. The Kyoto Protocol would at best cut them by 5 per cent by 2012, and probably less, even if it were brought into force and fully implemented.

In the meantime the world looks as if it will greatly exceed the targets. Writing in The Independent on Sunday today, Michael Meacher, the former environment minister, calculates that global emissions of greenhouse gases could increase by 75 per cent by 2020, "putting the world well on the way to doomsday".


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Germany; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: capitals; climatechange; doomsday; endoftheworld; ice; inoftheworld; junkscience; leftistmedia; melting; swamp; theskyisfalling; weredoomed
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To: Mulder

I'll bet HE doesn't buy it!

81 posted on 12/06/2003 6:03:01 PM PST by freedumb2003 (Peace through Strength)
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To: Dan Evans
This Mammoth was viewed by science to have died at the beginning of the last Ice Age. They believed it to have died in this sudden temperature change that continued on through the age.

The current phenomenon in Antarctica where the Northern Ice Shelf is just slipping away from the Continent is due to Sublevel volcanic activity. Which further supports the "Magnetic Shift" hypothesis. There are also factual reports of major anomalies in the Earth's magnetic field within the last few years. These magnetic anomalies have caused compass errors in places previously considered as stable.

Global Warming couldn't possibly have caused it because the heat source is coming from the Earth beneath the Ice Shelf which is several thousand feet thick.

82 posted on 12/06/2003 6:12:19 PM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP
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To: Dan Evans
The people in France died due to lack of airconditioning and the inability to cool off. Turn off the heat and see how many old people die on a cold day.
83 posted on 12/06/2003 6:13:22 PM PST by U S Army EOD (When the EOD technician screws up, he is always the first to notice.)
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To: blam
Michael Crichton addresses the horrors of global warming and other enviro bugaboos petty well on this thread.
84 posted on 12/06/2003 6:15:50 PM PST by Tribune7 (It's not like he let his secretary drown in his car or something.)
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To: Montfort

It is easy to see how they could reach 150K, but are those deaths really attributable to global warming or to negligence?

The cause is a lack of air conditioning. John Daly did a little study comparing Paris, France to Phoenix, Arizona (which recently had 110 degree temperatures). There were no excess deaths in Phoenix because people there had air conditioned homes and cars (I wonder what the temperature was in a Paris city bus this summer).

So, really the cause is lack of money.

85 posted on 12/06/2003 6:17:36 PM PST by Dan Evans (money=life)
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To: U S Army EOD
You hit the nail on the head.....

Global Alarmists claim all drastic weather events are due to GLOBAL ALARMING!

If it floods......GW!

If a long hard winter hits......GW!

If a Hurricane hits........Etc......

86 posted on 12/06/2003 6:18:41 PM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP
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To: redhead

HUH?

87 posted on 12/06/2003 6:19:38 PM PST by DannyTN
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To: Dan Evans
And since the French don't take many baths, it explains why the doctors wanted to go on vacation in the open camping areas, instead of treating these people.
88 posted on 12/06/2003 6:21:30 PM PST by U S Army EOD (When the EOD technician screws up, he is always the first to notice.)
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To: Kay Ludlow

How do they distinguish gobal warming deaths from other deaths?

Since you asked :O)

 

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,95260,00.html

"France claims that the recent European heat wave was responsible for the deaths of 3,000 of its countrymen. But for most of the summer, it has been much hotter in the American West, and no one can find even one body attributable to the heat."

***

"My University of Virginia  colleague Robert Davis and I looked into the issue of heat and mortality in American cities and published our findings in several academic journals. Given all those bodies in France and the big blackout, perhaps it's a good time to get these out of the dusty library stacks and tell what we found.

People who study mortality and climate have known for years that most temperate-zone cities have had some "threshold" temperature at which daily mortality suddenly begins to skyrocket. People who study economics will argue that this is a market ripe for adaptation.

How have Americans adapted to our warming cities? They stopped dying. Even though the local temperature keeps going up and up, the threshold at which deaths skyrocket has become higher and higher, and now is beyond the highest temperatures."

***

"European cities are virtually devoid of air conditioning in large part because the energy to run them is so expensive. And why is that? Pressured by vocal environmentalists, European governments have levied energy tax after energy tax, with the latest excuse being global warming.

The mathematics of this problem are terribly transparent. In order to meet their self-imposed targets from the Kyoto Protocol on global warming, European nations already have taxed energy, but they have not done enough. Consequently, even more restrictions are being proposed, especially by the German government. Unaffordable air conditioning will become even more expensive, killing more and more Europeans the next time the temperature reaches what passes for a few degrees above what is normal in Dallas.

Europe has effectively imposed a continuous blackout on air conditioning, and now it is paying the price."


89 posted on 12/06/2003 6:23:09 PM PST by ancient_geezer
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
During WWII on the Eastern Front, not only were the Germans illprepared, but so were a lot of Russian units, the Russians had an ENTIRE INFRANTRY DIVISION get caught in the open on a road march and freeze to death in a major storm.
90 posted on 12/06/2003 6:24:24 PM PST by U S Army EOD (When the EOD technician screws up, he is always the first to notice.)
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To: blam
Wow. Global warming sounds like a "done" deal. The Earth will be cooked to a "well-done" stage, rather than a "medium-done" one. [/sarcasm]

It's going to be an expensive problem and adapting to it would probably be cheaper, in the long run, than attempting to stop it and (most likely) having to adapt to it anyway.

Governments should spend their money on positive steps, at the point when they really know what effects the warming will have.(If it has any.)

91 posted on 12/06/2003 6:24:30 PM PST by syriacus (Ask Chuck Schumer if he would prefer to do away with lifetime appointments for Federal judges.)
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To: U S Army EOD
I swear I wrote post 85 before I read yours. Really!
92 posted on 12/06/2003 6:27:22 PM PST by Dan Evans
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To: syriacus
I have ZERO sympathy for the French. If they choose to roast their population in city apartments without air conditioning, when they have Nuclear power stations and ample power without burning fossil fuels, then they reap what they sow!
93 posted on 12/06/2003 6:32:29 PM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
"According to Evolution, animals have the ability to change species in mid stream when they see the need. The second law of Thermodynamics contradicts this theory."

It is obvious that your knowledge of evolutionary theory AND the second law of thermodynamics is non-existent.

Dream on.

94 posted on 12/06/2003 6:36:32 PM PST by Wonder Warthog (The Hog of Steel)
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To: Dan Evans
Your comments on post 88 please.
95 posted on 12/06/2003 6:37:42 PM PST by U S Army EOD (When the EOD technician screws up, he is always the first to notice.)
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To: PatrickHenry
Finally someone understands.

I must castigate you for one serious and politically incorrect omission: you neglected to mention that Women, (particularly single moms) Minorities, and Gays and Lesbians (if you are a senior citizen, the term you are used to is "homosexual," which covers alternative life styles in both sexes ... or "genders.") will suffer most as the indisputable tragedy of Bush-caused Global Warming inexorably takes place.

If more of our obscene defense budget were used to prevent the precessionary tilts in the Earth's rotational axis and sunspots, none of this would be taking place and AIDS/Breast Cancer could be cured.

The laws of Nature and Physics, because of Bush cronyism, seem to hit these groups the hardest.

96 posted on 12/06/2003 6:48:21 PM PST by Kenny Bunk
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To: Wonder Warthog
If you are looking at the literal definition of thermodynamics you could not possibly understand how it relates to cell structure and the very basis of life itself.

The study of Thermodynamics is deeply rooted in Physics at a PHD level and my use of it's example is as well.

In your feeble attempt to refute my opinion, you merely extrapolate your lack of study as well as advanced knowlege or lack thereof.

97 posted on 12/06/2003 6:49:30 PM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP
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To: Kenny Bunk
LOL!

This post has to be one of the whitiest I've seen in a long time. (Good intellectual humor!)

98 posted on 12/06/2003 6:56:01 PM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP; Wonder Warthog
I volunteer to be one of the seconds in the up coming duel.
99 posted on 12/06/2003 6:58:15 PM PST by U S Army EOD (When the EOD technician screws up, he is always the first to notice.)
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To: U S Army EOD
Duel?

You mean like bringing your knife to a gunfight?

100 posted on 12/06/2003 7:00:11 PM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP
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