Posted on 05/28/2019 11:54:51 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Allan Lichtman doesn't mind swimming against the political tide.
Lichtman, a professor at American University in Washington, DC, was the most prominent voice predicting Donald Trump's victory in the run-up to the 2016 election. When Trump won, it marked the 9th(!) straight presidential election where Lichtman had correctly predicted the Electoral College winner. (That's all the way back to 1984, for you math wizards.)
In short: Lichtman is someone the political world should listen to. So I reached out to him on Tuesday to see what he thought of Trump's current chances at a second term next November.
Here's what he told me:
"Trump wins again in 2020 unless six of 13 key factors turn against him. I have no final verdict yet because much could change during the next year. Currently, the President is down only three keys: Republican losses in the midterm elections, the lack of a foreign policy success, and the president's limited appeal to voters."
Lichtman's prediction system is based on 13 true/false statements about the party that holds the White House. If six or more of the statement are false, the incumbent loses. If less than six are false, the incumbent wins. Simple!
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
I did not!
Oh... more than one person predicted he would win. Probably several.
Was he the ONLY one to make that prediction in 2016?
Defeating ISIS was not a foreign policy success?
>> When Trump won, it marked the 9th(!) straight presidential election where Lichtman had correctly predicted the Electoral College winner. (That’s all the way back to 1984, for you math wizards.) <<
I hope he didn’t get 1980 wrong. That would be embarrassing. I hope he simply hadn’t predicted 1980.
Replace Trump's name with that of every other Republican President for the next fifty years, if not forever.
You mean the JV team?
the lack of a foreign policy success, and the president’s limited appeal to voters....
As judged by who? The Professor?
Personally I believe Trumps appeal to voters is greater than he thinks, ask Hillary how that works.
On Foreign policy, Norks are behaving and trade policy is putting the world in its place.
They’ve been trying as hard as they can for the past 2+ yrs now.
exactly wrong 180 degrees
if the D’s want to ever have a chance of winning elections again, they need to..
1. IMMEDIATELY stop all their sedition and impeachment talk, its getting almost every Democrat we know or meet... ANGRY AS HELL at the D party bosses
2. have the leading D party spokespersons like Pelousy (plus has-beens like HilLIARy, JFKerry, Obammy, and of course Puppetmeister SorozNazi himself) APOLOGIZE .. for real...
not half-assed, deceptive statements
for...all the above krap they’ve dumped on USA these past several years, and
3. find a credible candidate...at least one who is SANE and not obviously anti-American, anti-Jewish, anti-Catholic, anti-Christian, anti-morality, etc...
if they keep up this impeachment and seditious krap, they will give the next 5 elections, at least, to whomever runs against them. the D party is finished, kaput, over with, self-destructed, dead as a dodo
Hey Liberals, here’s one for ya! Too late for the ‘I’ move!!
He’s gonna get re elected for sure and the impeachment thingy will only assure MORE votes!
He is assuming that lies and impeachment equal “scandal”, which it does not. In fact, it is being viewed as a partisan witch hunt that it is.
Lol
He’s been virulently anti-Trump for a long time. I saw a book of his in a bookstore calling for Trump’s impeachment a long time ago, maybe in 2017.
He was one of the few because he factors in mostly decisions that are none political or after-the-results of a political move. Here he is pointing to a political decision as the only way possible to for Dems to stop Trump but we already know that it will be disastrous for the Dems if they do impeach
Considering the Senate will kill any attempt at impeachment, hey... go for it, dems.
You’re right about this
I don’t think the Liberals will be sitting at the grown-up table for a very long time.
I still say Impeachment will help Trump and hurt the Democrats, and the Democrats know that.
They just want to keep the “Sword of Damocles” above Trump’s head during the campaign.
I correctly-—almost exactly-—predicted Trump’s victory at “between 300 and 320 electoral votes”.
Impeachment won’t happen.
This is from CNN which has an agenda. In this case it is not so much to promote news that this professor predicts a win for Trump in 2020 but a dog whistle to Congressional Democrats to impeach Trump as a way to victory in 2020.
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