Posted on 04/07/2019 7:41:25 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Donald Trump will win a second term as US president by a landslide, a host of respected pollsters have claimed. Multiple economic surveys with a strong record of predicting presidential winners and losers say Trump will win next year’s midterm elections by a mile – as long as the economy stays strong. Donald Luskin, whose firm TrendMacrolytics correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 win, told Politico: ‘The economy is just so damn strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it.
‘I just don’t see how the blue wall (18 US states and District of Columbia that consistently picked Democrats between 1992 and 2012) could resist all that.’ Luskin’s firm ignores election polls and personal traits of presidential candidates, instead factoring in growth rates, wages, unemployment figures inflation and gas prices. All those metrics are known to strongly influence voters’ decisions when it comes to picking a potential president. Yale economist Ray Fair, who pioneered that type of modeling, also agrees Trump stands a strong chance of romping home to victory in 2020. He explained: ‘Even if you have a mediocre but not great economy – and that’s more or less consensus for between now and the election – that has a Trump victory and by a not-trivial margin.’
Fair, who also predicted Trump’s 2016 win, says he thinks the president will beat off his as yet unannounced Democrat rival by winning 54% of the vote, to their 46%. Luskin added that a gradual economic slowdown between now and next fall is unlikely to damage Trump’s chances, although a sudden downturn could put the president in danger. The Federal Reserve – which sets US interest rates, and dictates the cost of borrowing – is likely to stimulate growth further by keeping those rates low. Mark Zandy from Moody’s Analytics is a vocal critic of Trump, but concedes that his models also show the president winning a second term next year. But he said the presidential’s popularity rating could take a hit if a damaging scandal erupts, and says that could be enough to derail Trump’s entire campaign Zandy told Politico: ‘The only exception is his popularity, which matters a lot. If that falls off a cliff it would make a big difference.’ Trump critics and Democrats are currently eagerly awaiting the publication of special counsel Robert Mueller’s report into alleged Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election campaign. The president has denied any direct involvement, with rivals warning that allegations to the contrary in Mueller’s report could land him in deep trouble.
That Compact doesn’t kick in unless states with a total of 270 Electoral Votes or more vote to join. They are nowhere near that total, and even if they were, in November of 2020 after the president is re-elected, those states would quickly vote to repeal their approval of that stupid Compact. The RATS always have a loophole....for themselves.
Ah OK. Damn. There goes that delightful mental image. It would have been SOOOO delicious if it had happened as I envisioned. Any smaller state that signs up for that is beyond stupid.
Ummm...next year is not a midterm election. Midterm election was last year.
Too late.
Trump will not win in a landslide, period. Not gonna happen. There is a ceiling to the number of people who will vote R. About 46%-47% will not vote R regardless of candidate. Trump could be running against Vladimir Putin with a D by his name, and they would vote D. If Trump hits 50%, it will be a huge victory, but not a landslide.
That’s all? :)
Not only underestimating the ILLEGAL ALIEN vote but also tremendous voter FRAUD.
Article said it doesn’t look at that factor. These are economic models. As James Carvelle said, “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Thanks 2ndDivisionVet.
bbb
Everyone must not only go out and vote, they need to get other folks to vote. I am going to Pennsylvania myself to help there.
JoMa
I’m not so sure Trump will run for re-election .
Maybe they are assuming Trump wins and therefore it becomes a mid term election if you define his "term" as being 8 years.
Sure, but decades ago. I bet it was before 1968.
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