Posted on 04/07/2019 7:41:25 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Donald Trump will win a second term as US president by a landslide, a host of respected pollsters have claimed. Multiple economic surveys with a strong record of predicting presidential winners and losers say Trump will win next year’s midterm elections by a mile – as long as the economy stays strong. Donald Luskin, whose firm TrendMacrolytics correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 win, told Politico: ‘The economy is just so damn strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it.
‘I just don’t see how the blue wall (18 US states and District of Columbia that consistently picked Democrats between 1992 and 2012) could resist all that.’ Luskin’s firm ignores election polls and personal traits of presidential candidates, instead factoring in growth rates, wages, unemployment figures inflation and gas prices. All those metrics are known to strongly influence voters’ decisions when it comes to picking a potential president. Yale economist Ray Fair, who pioneered that type of modeling, also agrees Trump stands a strong chance of romping home to victory in 2020. He explained: ‘Even if you have a mediocre but not great economy – and that’s more or less consensus for between now and the election – that has a Trump victory and by a not-trivial margin.’
Fair, who also predicted Trump’s 2016 win, says he thinks the president will beat off his as yet unannounced Democrat rival by winning 54% of the vote, to their 46%. Luskin added that a gradual economic slowdown between now and next fall is unlikely to damage Trump’s chances, although a sudden downturn could put the president in danger. The Federal Reserve – which sets US interest rates, and dictates the cost of borrowing – is likely to stimulate growth further by keeping those rates low. Mark Zandy from Moody’s Analytics is a vocal critic of Trump, but concedes that his models also show the president winning a second term next year. But he said the presidential’s popularity rating could take a hit if a damaging scandal erupts, and says that could be enough to derail Trump’s entire campaign Zandy told Politico: ‘The only exception is his popularity, which matters a lot. If that falls off a cliff it would make a big difference.’ Trump critics and Democrats are currently eagerly awaiting the publication of special counsel Robert Mueller’s report into alleged Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election campaign. The president has denied any direct involvement, with rivals warning that allegations to the contrary in Mueller’s report could land him in deep trouble.
They’re still counting on the mueller report :)
its hysterical!!!
I raised my tally to 360 EVs possibly.
But what the hell do I know? :)
I expect it to be closer. Overconfidence has killed many monkeys by leopards. I will work my ass off to deliver as many votes in FL as I can.
I’m gonna sleep in.
People are reading words I didn’t type all over the place today :)
I’m going to work very hard too.
Still allowed to make a prediction
Patriots need to support PDJT by electing a new patriot Congress that will promise to support his vision for MAGA.
My $100,0000 will help.
Remember the Carpenters...
Albums were flying off the racks yet how very strange, because no one would admit to listening to their music.
It’s like that. :)
Amen.
Did they factor in:
1. Massive election fraud/ballot stuffing by the crooked Democrats?
2. A last-minute report of a Trump “morals crime” by the lying media?
I’m expecting both of those things to happen.
Never underestimate the effect of five decades lazy parenting and public education.
I think the long awaited illegal crackdown is going to start on the eve of the election.
Except 8th grade I’m a public education student.
Only voter fraud can stop him from winning.
The deep state has begun the crashing of the market and as much of the economy as they can. Recession chatter will grow louder and louder.
These evil loons will risk trashing every bit of America to hinder him.
And I fear for his life.
“But [Mark Zandy] said the presidential’s popularity rating could take a hit if a damaging scandal erupts....”
Has this guy been living under a rock for the last 4 years? Just what does he think could be out there that Trump hasn’t already survived? Bill Clinton wishes he was as scandal-proof as Trump is.
What would be really funny...and the cherry on top of the chit sundae for them is if President Trump does get a majority of the vote....and all those deep deep blue states that just passed laws requiring them to give their electoral votes to the candidate who garners the most votes nationally then have to give their electoral votes to......Trump!
California for Trump! New York for Trump! Massachusetts for Trump! New Jersey for Trump! Hawaii for Trump!
LOLOLOL!!! I’m imagining their faces now. They’ll look as though they are suffering from a sudden outbreak of mass constipation.
That Compact doesn’t kick in unless states with a total of 270 Electoral Votes or more vote to join.
They are nowhere near that total, and even if they were, in November of 2020 after the president is re-elected, those states would quickly vote to repeal their approval of that stupid Compact.
The RATS always have a loophole....for themselves.
AND, to add more pain for Democrats, voters are likely to think more Republicans in other offices (e.g., House and Senate) would be a good thing. Sorry Nan./s
“Did they factor in:”
It’s been a political axiom for ages - people tend to vote their pocketbooks.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.