Posted on 04/07/2016 5:11:02 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Donald Trump holds a seven-point lead over Ted Cruz in a new California Field Poll, but his support in Southern California is a mixed bag - as the Republican frontrunner faces a large deficit in Los Angeles County while drawing broad support in surrounding Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties.
The Field Research Corporation poll released Thursday shows Trump holding 39 percent of the support among Republicans identified as likely voters in the June 7 primary, while the Texas senator has the backing of 32 percent. Ohio Gov. John Kasich trailed both with 18 percent, while 11 percent remained undecided.
One thing the real estate mogul has going is that much of his support is coming from people who previously backed former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in the state’s recall of Gov. Gray Davis in 2003.
Schwarzenegger, who is backing Kasich, ran as a political outsider on a crowded ballot in 2003, when anger at Davis resulted in a recall election.
In the new poll, 54 percent of those likely Republican voters who backed Schwarzenegger now support Trump. Cruz had the backing of only 21 percent that supported the former governor and movie star.
Perhaps troubling for Trump — who canceled a speaking engagement Friday at his golf course in Rancho Palos Verdes to stump in New York — is that he trails Cruz by 11 points in the state’s most populous county, Los Angeles.
The poll was conducted between March 14 and April 4, and has a 3.2 percent margin of error. The questions were asked on the heels of what has been widely regarded as Trump’s worst week of the election cycle after his campaign manager was charged with battery against a reporter, and Trump said women who have abortions — if the procedure were made illegal — should be punished.
Still, Mark Vafiades, chairman of the Los Angeles County Republican Party, said the polling is too far ahead of the primary to reveal much.
“It seems like Trump had a rough week, and I know people say you either love Trump or hate him, and you either love Cruz or hate him, but that’s not true,” Vafiades said. “People can go back and forth between the two.”
In surrounding counties — including San Bernardino, Riverside and Orange — Trump has his widest lead: 45 percent to 23 percent for Cruz.
Riverside County Republican Party Chairman Scott Mann said there haven’t been any straw polls conducted in his region, but he thinks the conservative Cruz plays well with the constituency there. But he said because California isn’t a winner-take-all state, “all three will get a handful of delegates.”
He said Cruz and Kasich have been organizing leadership teams in the county and he has heard from the Cruz campaign that they will open offices in Cochella Valley and Temecula in the next couple of weeks. He has not been in contact with the Trump campaign.
“Trump people have been doing corner rallies, but it’s not organized,” he said.
Orange County Republican Chairman Fred Whitaker said Cruz has been building a strong ground game since late last year in California and already has an office in Costa Mesa. He also said while he’s been in touch regularly with the Cruz and Kasich campaigns, he hasn’t heard anything from Trump.
“He’s a mass-media star running a mass-media campaign,” Whitaker said. He noted he didn’t find out about Trump’s now-cancelled Friday speech in Ranch Palos Verdes until a CNN reporter called to tell him about it.
The three candidates are vying for the Republican presidential nomination in Cleveland this summer and Trump leads with 743 delegates to 517 for Cruz. A candidates needs 1,237 delegates to win the nomination outright and avoid a contested or brokered convention.
If it goes to a brokered or contested convention, 52 percent of Republicans in the poll believe the nomination should be given to Trump as the delegate leader, while 36 percent say someone else should be chosen.
But Whitaker said it’s important for a candidate to have more than 50 percent of the delegates to unify around.
California is the big prize with 172 delegates at stake, but they are divvied up by congressional districts - three delegates per district with 10 at-large delegates. The presidential candidate who wins any of the state’s 53 congressional districts will win all three delegates. The 10 at-large delegates are awarded to the candidate who has the highest vote total statewide.
Whitaker said a lot of this in uncharted territory for California Republicans.
“It’s kind of refreshing,” he said. “We haven’t had a significant presidential primary here in a long time.”
Who cares? I am talking about the vote of the people.
Cruz gets KO’d in CA.
Illegals
Who cares? I am talking about the vote of the people.
You've become incoherent. Best to you.
Speaking of incoherent.
Saying it’s a, “closed primary” is meaningless in your response to my #38 comment. If you want to make a point, you might want to add some kind of specificity. Or are you suggesting the vote of the people is now inconsequential?
Is Los Angeles county a stronghold of conservatism? Per Wikipedia, of registered voters, 51.1% are Democrats and 21.6% are Republicans. What gives wit dat if Cruz is the most conservative choice? It all gets so confusing.
His Mobile Strike commercials suck, too.
Trump is a mixture of Arnold and Ventura, IMO. About the only difference between Jesse and Donald is that Jesse actually sued someone (Chris Kyle).
Seriously though, I'm longing for Mr. Trump to demonstrate more presidential bearing, and soon. Most of his attacks are personal in nature, and not based on differences on the issues.
I'm also disappointed with Ted for engaging in responses that are more personal than substantive. He's been doing better, by pointing out the support that Donald has provided to NY liberals.
I’m not actually sure why the comparison to Schwartzenegger is negative. Sure if you actually believe that a real conservative could be elected in California but I think it’s a fairly plain fact that there’s zero chance of that happening any time soon. But Arnold took down a Democrat governor in a recall, and a huge tax increase along with it. Don’t blame him for the actions of the hard left Legislature that he had to deal with for his entire stay in office.
I appreciate your considered posting about Schwarzenegger and the recall.
I see your point but don’t think Schwarzenegger was as central to the recall as you posit.
I think if Schwarzenegger had kept his ego out of it that Issa (who was responsible for the recall) would have governor and done a better job than Arnoldvv
“Seriously though, I’m longing for Mr. Trump to demonstrate more presidential bearing, and soon. Most of his attacks are personal in nature, and not based on differences on the issues.”
The attacks on Ben Carson were the first red flag.
His problem is he personally attacks (usually unfairly and dishonestly) people on our side as well. He is indiscriminately firing.
I wouldn’t have minded if he confined his Alinsky tactics to only leftists and liberals etc.
And he did not need to do these things. He was winning big on issues. He became his own side show.
Yes, you are probably correct that Schwartzenegger himself was not responsible for the recall, and I would agree that Issa would’ve been a better governor. But I’m not sure that he would’ve been elected governor. The fact that he’s never won any kind of statewide office, or even run for one that I can remember would seem to indicate otherwise.
Thank you, Ms. Kael.
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