Paths To The Nomination: Trump, Cruz, And Rubio

The Federalist ^ | January 22, 2016 | Robert Tracinski

[2ndDivisionVet]

We're far enough along in the Republican primary process -- though not a single vote has been cast -- that the field has winnowed down to a small number, and we can begin to project how each of them might win the nomination.

I see this is as three-man race right now: Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio.

Why? Because for everyone else, the path to the nomination begins with "and then a miracle occurs." Well, maybe not a miracle. But they're basically waiting for some spectacular and unexpected change of events that will break their way and suddenly everyone will discover, or rediscover, a candidate currently languishing at 5 percent or below in the polls. Maybe they're hoping for something like the last Republican primary. In the 2012 cycle, it seemed like every candidate got his shot at being a front-runner. Just about everybody got to be the leading alternative to Mitt Romney for at least three weeks, even Rick Santorum, which might explain what he's doing in the race this time around. (Yeah, he's still officially running. I'll understand if you didn't notice.)

This is true even of poor Jeb Bush, who was supposed to be the "establishment" front-runner but just couldn't get traction. Jeb's only chance, and his actual strategy, is that somehow every other alternative to Trump will implode, leaving Jeb as the only sane choice. This, again, is hoping for a replay of 2012, because that's basically how Mitt Romney won: by watching a series of challengers implode. But this time around, Jeb isn't waiting for guys like Herman Cain to flame out. He needs two or three seasoned, successful, fairly well-tested national-level politicians to implode. And that's really unlikely to happen....

[exnavy]

I am in no way a trump supporter, however, it is obvious. Not sure how he will do against the dem nominee, probably not going to be Hillery, maybe biden.