Free Republic
Browse · Search
GOP Club
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Paths To The Nomination: Trump, Cruz, And Rubio
The Federalist ^ | January 22, 2016 | Robert Tracinski

Posted on 01/24/2016 3:12:56 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

We're far enough along in the Republican primary process -- though not a single vote has been cast -- that the field has winnowed down to a small number, and we can begin to project how each of them might win the nomination.

I see this is as three-man race right now: Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio.

Why? Because for everyone else, the path to the nomination begins with "and then a miracle occurs." Well, maybe not a miracle. But they're basically waiting for some spectacular and unexpected change of events that will break their way and suddenly everyone will discover, or rediscover, a candidate currently languishing at 5 percent or below in the polls. Maybe they're hoping for something like the last Republican primary. In the 2012 cycle, it seemed like every candidate got his shot at being a front-runner. Just about everybody got to be the leading alternative to Mitt Romney for at least three weeks, even Rick Santorum, which might explain what he's doing in the race this time around. (Yeah, he's still officially running. I'll understand if you didn't notice.)

This is true even of poor Jeb Bush, who was supposed to be the "establishment" front-runner but just couldn't get traction. Jeb's only chance, and his actual strategy, is that somehow every other alternative to Trump will implode, leaving Jeb as the only sane choice. This, again, is hoping for a replay of 2012, because that's basically how Mitt Romney won: by watching a series of challengers implode. But this time around, Jeb isn't waiting for guys like Herman Cain to flame out. He needs two or three seasoned, successful, fairly well-tested national-level politicians to implode. And that's really unlikely to happen....

(Excerpt) Read more at thefederalist.com ...


TOPICS: Florida; New York; Texas; Campaign News; Issues; Parties
KEYWORDS: 2016election; bencarson; canada; cruz; cuba; election2016; elections; florida; immigration; jebbush; marcorubio; newyork; progressvietrump; rubio; tedcruz; texas; trump; trumpaliberal; trumpisestablishment; trumplies; trumpwasright
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021 next last
Can Marco Rubio Even Win a Primary?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-gop/3368499/posts
1 posted on 01/24/2016 3:12:56 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

If trump wins Iowa, it is over.


2 posted on 01/24/2016 3:41:35 AM PST by exnavy (good gun control: two hands, one shot, one kill.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Bookmark


3 posted on 01/24/2016 3:52:02 AM PST by samtheman (Elect Trump, Build Wall. End Censorship.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: exnavy

I wish I had a dollar for every time that’s been said here.


4 posted on 01/24/2016 3:55:29 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (TED CRUZ 2016)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Yea, he won the one here in 2010 by propagating a lie so convincingly that it bit him in the hind quarters when he teamed up and co-authored with Schumer. What was really stunning is that he thought he could lie his way out of that one too.


5 posted on 01/24/2016 4:23:39 AM PST by mazda77
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
This is actually a pretty balanced article. There are some things I don't agree with, but taken all in all it is pretty good. I am sure the Trump supporters will think that it is all wrapped up and everyone should just bow down to Donald's greatness, but elections are not won by bluster. I agree with the writer. Only three men remain who can chart a path to nomination, excluding some earth changing event. I think that Rubio has the most difficult path and must win somewhere.

In any event, Trumpers, don't think that everyone who doesn't embrace your man is stupid or unamerican. When this is over, whoever wins must pick up the pieces of the party and beat whichever Socialist that the Dems run against us. That means that Trump (if he serious about being a Republican), Cruz, and Rubio must come together after the Convention. We cannot allow our country to go through Socialism another four years!

6 posted on 01/24/2016 4:33:34 AM PST by gbscott1954 (Why not a real Conservative?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: gbscott1954
Re>That means that Trump (if he serious about being a Republican

Not sure on this. I have seen the damage Republicans can do. The Republican party has betrayed its base. That fact cannot be argued.

7 posted on 01/24/2016 4:47:49 AM PST by IC Ken
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

He’s probably right Rubio picking up support as people drop out of the race, but I think he’s wrong about Carson’s supporters. I think they go to Cruz and Trump when Carson drops out.


8 posted on 01/24/2016 4:50:12 AM PST by FreedomForce ( Cruz 2016 --------- I've come to my senses. Trump is no longer even my second choice.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: IC Ken

Your right there! Actually, the Dems are helping us by running just as far to the left as they can get. I also think that the thing about Bloomberg thinking about running will be a boost to the GOP nominee. He can’t help but pull away votes from the Dems.


9 posted on 01/24/2016 4:56:33 AM PST by gbscott1954 (Why not a real Conservative?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: IC Ken

I think many people assume the “Republican base” is what it was in the Reagan era.


10 posted on 01/24/2016 5:25:10 AM PST by bigbob ("Victorious warriors win first ande then go to war" Sun Tzu.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Hi 2nd DV,

I hope you are well. Thank you for posting the article. As it says, not a single vote has been cast yet.

I’d like to have 50 cents for every Trump victory forecast. :-)

My own little thought, knowing that no vote has been cast, and believing that even the average voter will take their responsibility with the solemnity it deserves, is that Mr. Trump will not “win” any state. Will he get delegates? Yes. But, I believe that the experience of Ventura (who won as a third party candidate) and Schwarzenegger as a liberal Republican, will convince that both are superior to the positions of DJT. Trump’s platform seems to be, “The other guy is bad.” He offers nothing but bumper sticker sound bites. Please forgive me mixing metaphors.

Again, thank you for staying strong.

Gwjack


11 posted on 01/24/2016 5:52:48 AM PST by gwjack (May God give America His richest blessings.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

I especially like the part where he says Rubio isn’t a panderer! Ha ha ha ha!

What was the Gang of Ocho?....What is instate tuition for illegals!? Yeah Rubio doesn’t pander. Ha ha!

What a joke.


12 posted on 01/24/2016 5:57:00 AM PST by vmivol00 (I won't be reconstructed.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: bigbob
Re>I think many people assume the “Republican base” is what it was in the Reagan era

Four sure. I had a long talk with a friend who was a life long Democrats. I told him that the Democrats have come a long way from JFK Democrats. AT one time I think they did support the working man. My how that has changed.

13 posted on 01/24/2016 6:06:53 AM PST by IC Ken
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: bigbob

Yeah....They be biggatime wrong!!!!!


14 posted on 01/24/2016 6:17:08 AM PST by Boonie ("Nuke 'em all...Let Allah sort 'em out...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: All

Trump or Cruz...Either one works for me...In fact, ANY of the republican candidates beats the H%LL outta Hillary or Sanders...I’d write in a dead cat before either of them.....


15 posted on 01/24/2016 6:19:19 AM PST by Boonie ("Nuke 'em all...Let Allah sort 'em out...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: gbscott1954

I only got as far as his proposition that Trump is a successful populist- who only appeals to fringe voters!!!
That’s irrational, but a common base for analysis of the campaign.
I assumed his remarks on the other candidates were as irrational and self-serving.

Yes, we are all going to have to get along when the primary is over.


16 posted on 01/24/2016 6:48:34 AM PST by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat/RINO Party!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

I would say they’re the only ones with a realistic shot at this point. Things could change.


17 posted on 01/24/2016 7:01:53 AM PST by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

It’s well written and thought out even if you disagree with some of his assumptions.

After the Iowa caucuses we will know if Trump has a viable organization and if his supporters are actually able to participate in a Republican party event. If his support is actually disaffected democrats and independents it will make it difficult for Trump to gain the nomination.

The same thing applies in New Hampshire but in a slightly different way. How many of those disaffected democrats will vote for their next door neighbor Bernie Sanders?

If either Cruz or Rubio (or both) do well in South Carolina they stay in the race. I predict one of them will and will ride the Southern Baptist and pro-life voters to the Southern primary. The south will determine this year’s nominee.


18 posted on 01/24/2016 7:05:13 AM PST by Oklahoma
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: exnavy

You may br right. However, many others on FR just a few weeks ago were saying that Iowa means nothing, while many others said it means nearly nothing.


19 posted on 01/24/2016 7:09:54 AM PST by Heart of Georgia
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: exnavy

“If trump wins Iowa, it is over.”

Ding ding ding.. winner.


20 posted on 01/24/2016 7:15:01 AM PST by EQAndyBuzz (The Trump/Cruz war is a media generated war so the establishment can stay in power.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
GOP Club
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson