Posted on 01/24/2016 3:12:56 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
We're far enough along in the Republican primary process -- though not a single vote has been cast -- that the field has winnowed down to a small number, and we can begin to project how each of them might win the nomination.
I see this is as three-man race right now: Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio.
Why? Because for everyone else, the path to the nomination begins with "and then a miracle occurs." Well, maybe not a miracle. But they're basically waiting for some spectacular and unexpected change of events that will break their way and suddenly everyone will discover, or rediscover, a candidate currently languishing at 5 percent or below in the polls. Maybe they're hoping for something like the last Republican primary. In the 2012 cycle, it seemed like every candidate got his shot at being a front-runner. Just about everybody got to be the leading alternative to Mitt Romney for at least three weeks, even Rick Santorum, which might explain what he's doing in the race this time around. (Yeah, he's still officially running. I'll understand if you didn't notice.)
This is true even of poor Jeb Bush, who was supposed to be the "establishment" front-runner but just couldn't get traction. Jeb's only chance, and his actual strategy, is that somehow every other alternative to Trump will implode, leaving Jeb as the only sane choice. This, again, is hoping for a replay of 2012, because that's basically how Mitt Romney won: by watching a series of challengers implode. But this time around, Jeb isn't waiting for guys like Herman Cain to flame out. He needs two or three seasoned, successful, fairly well-tested national-level politicians to implode. And that's really unlikely to happen....
(Excerpt) Read more at thefederalist.com ...
If trump wins Iowa, it is over.
Bookmark
I wish I had a dollar for every time that’s been said here.
Yea, he won the one here in 2010 by propagating a lie so convincingly that it bit him in the hind quarters when he teamed up and co-authored with Schumer. What was really stunning is that he thought he could lie his way out of that one too.
In any event, Trumpers, don't think that everyone who doesn't embrace your man is stupid or unamerican. When this is over, whoever wins must pick up the pieces of the party and beat whichever Socialist that the Dems run against us. That means that Trump (if he serious about being a Republican), Cruz, and Rubio must come together after the Convention. We cannot allow our country to go through Socialism another four years!
Not sure on this. I have seen the damage Republicans can do. The Republican party has betrayed its base. That fact cannot be argued.
He’s probably right Rubio picking up support as people drop out of the race, but I think he’s wrong about Carson’s supporters. I think they go to Cruz and Trump when Carson drops out.
Your right there! Actually, the Dems are helping us by running just as far to the left as they can get. I also think that the thing about Bloomberg thinking about running will be a boost to the GOP nominee. He can’t help but pull away votes from the Dems.
I think many people assume the “Republican base” is what it was in the Reagan era.
Hi 2nd DV,
I hope you are well. Thank you for posting the article. As it says, not a single vote has been cast yet.
I’d like to have 50 cents for every Trump victory forecast. :-)
My own little thought, knowing that no vote has been cast, and believing that even the average voter will take their responsibility with the solemnity it deserves, is that Mr. Trump will not “win” any state. Will he get delegates? Yes. But, I believe that the experience of Ventura (who won as a third party candidate) and Schwarzenegger as a liberal Republican, will convince that both are superior to the positions of DJT. Trump’s platform seems to be, “The other guy is bad.” He offers nothing but bumper sticker sound bites. Please forgive me mixing metaphors.
Again, thank you for staying strong.
Gwjack
I especially like the part where he says Rubio isn’t a panderer! Ha ha ha ha!
What was the Gang of Ocho?....What is instate tuition for illegals!? Yeah Rubio doesn’t pander. Ha ha!
What a joke.
Four sure. I had a long talk with a friend who was a life long Democrats. I told him that the Democrats have come a long way from JFK Democrats. AT one time I think they did support the working man. My how that has changed.
Yeah....They be biggatime wrong!!!!!
Trump or Cruz...Either one works for me...In fact, ANY of the republican candidates beats the H%LL outta Hillary or Sanders...I’d write in a dead cat before either of them.....
I only got as far as his proposition that Trump is a successful populist- who only appeals to fringe voters!!!
That’s irrational, but a common base for analysis of the campaign.
I assumed his remarks on the other candidates were as irrational and self-serving.
Yes, we are all going to have to get along when the primary is over.
I would say they’re the only ones with a realistic shot at this point. Things could change.
It’s well written and thought out even if you disagree with some of his assumptions.
After the Iowa caucuses we will know if Trump has a viable organization and if his supporters are actually able to participate in a Republican party event. If his support is actually disaffected democrats and independents it will make it difficult for Trump to gain the nomination.
The same thing applies in New Hampshire but in a slightly different way. How many of those disaffected democrats will vote for their next door neighbor Bernie Sanders?
If either Cruz or Rubio (or both) do well in South Carolina they stay in the race. I predict one of them will and will ride the Southern Baptist and pro-life voters to the Southern primary. The south will determine this year’s nominee.
You may br right. However, many others on FR just a few weeks ago were saying that Iowa means nothing, while many others said it means nearly nothing.
“If trump wins Iowa, it is over.”
Ding ding ding.. winner.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.