Election Report pt 2 (2000 Bush and 2002 Posthumus results compared by county

Unfortunately, we lost another close race in 2002 in Michigan. Turnout is much lower in off year races, so it is sometimes hard to compare, but this can show where many ticket splitters are at. Dick Posthumus lost to Jenny Granholm by 127,692 votes (Bush lost by 217279). Granholm had 51.4%(same as Gore), Posthumus had 47.4%(Bush 46). The rest had about 1-2%.

The UP:
Posthumus 47685 – 46.66%
Granholm 52857 – 51.72%
Greens – 1100, Taxpayers(Michigan's name for Constitution Party) - 565
Granholm won by 5172 votes.

Posthumus unperformed Bush (who won by 6462) in the UP. Much of this had to do with state issues. There are a lot of State workers up North, and many of them did not like John Engler at all. The DNR wasn’t popular among the hunters. The gun issue was a factor, but not the same way it was in 2000, since Granholm ran away from the gun issue and even said she was wrong on what would happen on CPL. The UP still leans democrat, and if Bush wants to win, he’ll need to equal or better his performance here in 2000.

Alger County
Posthumus 1623 – 46.02%
Granholm 1855 – 52.59%, won by 232
Posthumus Best votes – Munsing Township by 97
Posthumus best % - Munsing Township – 55.27%
Granholm’s best votes – Rock River by 122
Granholm’s best % - Mathias Township – 64.57%

Home of Pictured Rocks Lakeshore on Lake Superior. Between Marquette and Newberry. Bush won this area with 49% in 2000. Posthumus was swept here outside of Munsing.

Baraga County
Posthumus 1170 – 47.18%
Granholm 1263 – 50.93%, won by 93
Posthumus Best votes – Covington Township by 21
Posthumus Best % - Covington Township – 52.38%
Granholm’s best votes – L’anse Township by 90
Granholm’s best % - L’anse Township – 52.96%

West of Marquette in the western UP. Bush won here too, this time with 54%. All these areas were close % wise in 02. Ironically, Bush’s best township was Granholm’s as well.

Chippewa County
Posthumus 5357 – 49.16%
Granholm 5428 – 49.81%, won by 71
Posthumus best votes – Pickford Township by 57
Posthumus best % - Chippewa Township – 63.27%
Granholm best votes – Sault Ste Marie City by 139
Granholm best % - DeTour Township – 58.21%

This is a key swing county. Bush won here by 1156(52%). This is where Sault Ste Marie is, where 1/3 of the county’s votes are. Bush won there by 67. Tahquamenon Falls is here and a major tourist attraction (as is the Soo). The GOP has a state rep here, so this is more friendly to the GOP than other UP counties.

Delta County
Posthumus 6590 – 48.37%
Granholm 6862 – 50.32%, won by 272
Posthumus best Votes – Bark River Township by 205
Posthumus best % - Bark River – 67.26%
Granholm Best votes – Escanaba City by 228
Granholm best % - Garden Township 57.38%

Another key county. Bush won with 51% This is a historicaly democrat area, but conservative. Tom Casperson won a big upset election for state rep here, so the tide is starting to turn here. This is not far from Green Bay, WI on Lake Michigan.

Dickinson County
Posthumus 4358 – 52.17%, won by 476
Granholm 3882 – 46.47%
Posthumus best Votes – Breitung Township by 224
Posthumus best % - Breen Township – 62.50%
Granholm best votes – Norway City by 101
Granholm best % Norway City – 54.48%

Gogebic County
Posthumus 2308 – 40.59%
Granholm 3292 - 57.90%, won by 984
Posthumus Best votes – Watersmeet Township by 50
Posthumus Best % - Watersmeet Township – 52.23%
Granholm best votes – Ironwood City by 494
Granholm best % - Wakefield Township – 70.99%

The 2nd most democrat county in the UP. Gore won it with 49% and underperformed. Covers Ironwood in the Westernmost UP. Posthumus was nearly swept here and only won two townships.

Houghton County
Posthumus 5119 – 49.46%, won by 93
Granholm 5026 – 48.56%
Posthumus best votes – Chassel Township by 125
Posthumus best % - Duncan Township – 59.43%
Granholm best votes – Adams Township by 104
Granholm best % - Adams Township – 56.20%

Iron County
Posthumus 2017 – 44.44%
Granholm 2429 – 53.51%, won by 412
Posthumus Best Votes – Iron River Township by 71
Posthumus best % - Iron River Township – 57.24%
Granholm best votes – Crystal Falls City by 176
Granholm best % - Crystal Falls City – 63.15%

3rd most democrat county in the UP. Gore won it with 49% and struggled here. Locally very strong dem. Posthumus lost every city and township except for two. The numbers would be higher for Granholm, but Iron River Twp is strongly GOP.

Keweenaw County
Posthumus 545 - 52%, won by 63
Granholm 482 – 45.99%
Posthumus best votes – Eagle Harbor Township by 38
Posthumus best % - Houghton Township – 60.61%
Granholm best votes – Grant Township by 4
Granholm best % - Sherman Township – 52.78%

One of the least populated areas in the state. Granholm only won Sherman by three votes. Bush won with 55 and by 200 votes. Nothernmost Michigan by Lake Superior where Isle Royale and Copper Harbor are.

Posthumus 889 – 45.73%
Granholm 1016 – 52.56%, won by 127
Posthumus Best votes – Lakefield Township by 27
Posthumus Best % - lakefield Township – 52.09%
Granholm best votes – McMillan Township by 93
Granholm best % - Columbus Township – 57.14%

Erractic county near Newberry. Bush swept Gore here, and Granholm nearly returned the favor winning all but one.

Posthumus 2425 – 51.97%, won by 219
Granholm 2206 – 47.28%
Posthumus Best votes – Clark Township by 144
Posthumus Best % - Marquette Township – 61.19%
Granholm best votes – Moran Township by 57
Granholm best % - Moran Township - 55.84%

A very large county that goes from Drummond Island, west through, St Ignace, Mackinac Island, all the way almost to Mantistique. Bush got 55% here.

Marquette County
Posthumus 8906 – 40.21%
Granholm 12779 – 57.69%
Posthumus best Votes – West Branch Township by 42
Posthumus best % - West Branch Township – 53.69%
Granholm best votes – Marquette City by 1290
Granholm best % - Richmond Township – 68.48%

The most dem county in the UP. Marquette, Ishpeming, and Neqaunee are a 1,2,3 punch that makes it almost impossible for a Republican to win here. Bush lost by 10% here. Heavily union, and Northern Michigan University is up there as well. I hope for a major snowstorm, although Marquette is used to it.

Posthumus 3576 – 50.84%, won by 241
Granholm 3335 – 47.41%
Posthumus best Votes – Ingallston Township by 100
Posthumus best % - Gourley Township – 64.93%
Granholm best votes – Menominee City by 284
Granholm best % - Menominee City – 55.78%
Menominee City is heavily dem, but the rest of the county leans GOP. It now had a state rep who is GOP thanks to an upset win. The tide is turning in the southern UP!!!! This is Bart Stupak’s home area, so this is still not an easy county. This is right near Green Bay, WI.

Ontonagon County
Posthumus 1334 – 49.61%, won by 33
Granholm 1301 – 48.38%
Posthumus best Votes – Ontonagon Township by 117
Posthumus best % - Ontonagon Township – 55.06%
Granholm best votes – Interior Township by 38
Granholm best % - Bohemia Township – 67.35%

Bush swept Gore and did 10% better than Posthumus here, who lost more townships than Granholm did here. On Lake Superior between Houghton and Ironwood.

Posthumus 1468 – 45.62%
Granholm 1701 – 52.86%, won by 233
Posthumus best Votes – Gemfask Township by 37
Posthumus best % - Gemfask Township – 61.54%
Granholm best votes – Manistique City by 160
Granholm best % - Manistique City 56.84%

Bush overperformed here and won it. Between Escanaba and St Ignace on Lake Michigan.

NE Lower:
Posthumus 32868 – 50.04%
Granholm 32006 – 48.73%
Greens – 484, Taxpayers - 327
Posthumus won by 862 votes.

Posthumus slightly underperformed Bush here, due completely to his trouncing in Alpena County. He did win Roscommon, which Bush lost. Fiscally liberal, pro-union, and pro-gun.

Cheboygan County
Posthumus 5268 – 55.53%, won by 1161
Granholm 4107 – 43.29%
Posthumus Best Votes – Tuscorara Township by 255
Posthumus Best % - Wilmont Township – 66.16%
Granholm Best votes – Ellis Township by 21
Granholm Best % - Ellis Township – 54.95%

Presque Isle County
Posthumus 2862 – 50.72%, Posthumus by 145
Granholm 2717 – 48.15%
Posthumus Best Votes – Belknap Township by 81
Posthumus Best % - Belknap Township - 64.26%
Granholm Best votes – Pulawski Township by 43
Granholm Best % - Pulawski Township – 64.79%

Between Alpena and Cheboygan on Lake Huron. Swing County. Posthumus and Bush performed equally here.

Montmorency County
Posthumus 2231 – 55.64%
Granholm 1722 – 42.94%
Posthumus Best Votes – Albert Township by 133
Posthumus Best % - Rust Township – 64.85%
Granholm was swept

Between Alpena and Gaylord in Elk Country. Bush and Posthumus performed equally here in this solid GOP county.

Alpena County
Posthumus 4722 – 42.07%
Granholm 6391 – 56.95%, won by 1669
Posthumus Best Votes – Ossinkee Township by 52
Posthumus Best % - Wellington Township – 58.76%
Granholm Best votes – Alpena City by 903
Granholm Best % - Alpena City – 60.94%

Bush held Gore to 50% here, and Granholm did 7% better. The DNR isn’t popular here(this is the deer TB area), and the area is heavily union. The major city in NE Michigan.

Oscoda County
Posthumus – 1669 – 56.42%, won by 427
Granholm - 1242 – 41.99%
Posthumus Best Votes – Comins Township by 241
Posthumus Best % - Comins Township – 68.79%
Granholm was swept

Posthumus ran slightly ahead of Bush here. Solid GOP, centered by Mio between Grayling and Harrisville on M-72.

Alcona County
Posthumus – 2387 – 52.04%, won by 222
Granholm - 2165 – 47.20%
Posthumus Best Votes – Harrisville Township by 108
Posthumus Best % - Mikado Township - 60.07%
Granholm Best Votes – Hawes Township by 63
Granholm Best % - Hawes Township – 57.14%

Posthumus ran similar to Bush here. East of Mio on Lake Huron between Alpena, and Tawas City along US-23.

Ogemaw County
Posthumus 3689 – 49.04%
Granholm 3727 – 49.54%, won by 38
Posthumus Best Votes – Rose Township by 75
Posthumus Best % - Rose Township – 57.42%
Granholm Best Votes – Mills Township by 153
Granholm Best % - Hill Township – 56.94%

Posthumus did much better than Bush in Mills Township(where Bush lost by 400), but didn’t win West Branch as big. On I-75 west of Tawas City, South of Mio, and East of Roscommon.

Iosco County
Posthumus 4817 – 48.17%
Granholm 5031 – 50.32%
Posthumus Best Votes – Baldwin Township by 70
Posthumus Best % - Alabaster Township – 54.51%
Granholm Best Votes – Plainfield Township by 135
Granholm Best % - Whittemore City 56.20%

Bush and Posthumus performed similar here. On Lake Huron between Standish and Tawas City along US-23.

Roscommon County
Posthumus 5223 – 50.93%, won by 214
Granholm 4817 – 48.17%
Posthumus Best Votes – Gerrish Township by 196
Posthumus Best % - Nester Township – 56.62%
Granholm Best Votes – Richfield Township by 180
Granholm Best % - Richfield Township – 55.47%

Posthumus 68719 – 57.18%
Granholm 49681 – 41.34%
Greens – 1219, Taxpayers - 43
Posthumus won by 19038.

Posthumus performed equally to Bush here, percentagewise. This is a solid GOP area.

Emmet County
Posthumus – 7111 – 61.05%, won by 2781
Granholm -4330 – 37.16%
Posthumus Best Votes – Bear Creek Township by 565
Posthumus Best % - Pleasant View Township – 71.82%
Granholm was swept.

Solid GOP county. Stretches from Mackinac City to Petoskey on Lake Michigan, and Little Traverse City. Big money at Harbor Springs and Petoskey. Posthumus got 3% higher than Bush here.

Charlevoix County
Posthumus 5607 – 58.31%, won by 1772
Granholm 3836 – 39.89%
Posthumus Best Votes – South Arm Township by 221
Posthumus Best % - South Arm Township by 67.05%
Granholm was swept

Posthumus got 2% higher than Bush here. Solid GOP area SW of Petoskey on Lake Michigan and Lake Charlevoix. Big Money and some rural areas here. Big outdoors county.

Antrim County
Posthumus 5576 – 58.96%, won by 1824
Granholm 3752 – 39.67%
Posthumus Best Votes – Banks Township by 285.
Posthumus Best % - Banks Township - 69.56%
Granholm Best Votes – Jordan Township by 6
Granholm Best % - Jordan Township – 50.00%

South of Charlevoix and West of Gaylord. Bush and Posthumus fared about the same here. Granholm only won one township. Covers Mancelona and Elk Rapids. Elk Rapids is on Grand Traverse Bay near Traverse City. Mancelona is between Gaylord and Traverse City.

Otsego County
Posthumus 4982 – 58.80%, won by 1636
Granholm 3346 - 39.49%
Posthumus Best Votes – Bagley Township by 447
Posthumus Best % - Elmira Township - 62.95%
Granholm was swept

On I-75 North of Grayling, South of Cheboygan, major petroleum and outdoors area. Solid GOP and rapidly growing with retirement homes. Bush and Posthumus performed equally.

Crawford County
Posthumus 2566 – 52.45%, won by 333
Granholm 2233 – 45.65%
Posthumus Best Votes – Grayling Township by 153
Posthumus Best % - Maple Forest Township – 58.94%
Granholm Best Votes – South Branch Township by 52
Granholm Best % - South Branch Township – 53.33%

GOP leaning county on I-75 between Roscommon and Gaylord. Home of a major National Guard base and a socially conservative area. The Au Sable River is one of the best fly fishing areas in the state.

Kalkaska County
Posthumus 3010 – 56.62%, won by 776
Granholm 2234 - 42.02%
Posthumus Best Votes – Kalkaska Township by 198
Posthumus Best % - Oliver Township – 66.94%
Granholm was swept

Between Grayling and Traverse City. Solid GOP area, most known by it’s school that closed early because they ran out of money. That was back in the bad old days before proposal A. (Engler’s big legacy)

Grand Traverse County
Posthumus 17382 – 57.69%, won by 5052
Granholm 12330 – 40.92%
Posthumus Best Votes – Garfield Township by 879
Posthumus Best % - Grant Township - 63.85%
Granholm Best Votes – Traverse City by 262
Granholm Best % - Traverse City – 51.39%

Anchors the GOP base in NW Michigan and is the major county here. Bush won Traverse City, but Granholm won it, largely due to soccer moms and the like that couldn’t pass up voting for a woman solely for that reason. Posthumus and Bush got similar percentages anyway, and made up for some of it in outlying areas.

Leelanau County
Posthumus 5501 – 55.71% won by 1260
Granholm 4241 – 42.95%
Posthumus Best Votes – Elmwood Township by 336
Posthumus Best % - Glen Arbor Township - 61.96%
Granholm Best Votes – Empire Township by 18
Granholm Best % - Traverse City – 63.33%

Posthumus underperformed Bush (57%) slightly here. Bush swept Gore, and Posthumus lost two areas here. The Traverse City precinct here only had 30 voters, so it’s not as bad as it looks. Michigan’s wine country, NW of Traverse City.

Benzie County
Posthumus 3480 – 52.53% won by 444
Granholm 3036 – 45.83%
Posthumus Best Votes – Almira Township by 230
Posthumus Best % - Weldon Township – 60.54%
Granholm Best Votes – Frankfort City by 64
Granholm Best % - Frankfort City 59.12%

Marginal GOP County west of Traverse City on Lake Michigan. Bush and Posthumus performed about equally here.

Manistee County
Posthumus 4401 – 49.45%, won by 12
Granholm 4389 – 49.31%
Posthumus Best Votes – Pleasanton Township by 90
Posthumus Best % - Pleasanton Township – 62.97%
Granholm Best Votes – Manistee City by 134
Granholm Best % - Filer Township – 52.93%

Bush lost this county, which Posthumus won. Swing County on Lake Michigan South of Frankfort.

Wexford County
Posthumus 5640 – 56.37%, won by 1410
Granholm 4230 – 42.28%
Posthumus Best Votes - Cadillac City by 277
Posthumus Best % - Colfax Township – 64.31%
Granholm Best Votes – Slagle Township by 15
Granholm Best % - Slagle Township - 53.97%

Missaukee County
Posthumus 3462 – 66.11%, won by 1738
Granholm 1724 – 32.92%
Posthumus Best Votes – Richland Township by 371
Posthumus Best % - Clam Union Township – 84.26%
Granholm was swept

Largely settled by Dutch farmers, which accounts for its high GOP returns. Between Cadillac and Roscommon. The 2nd highest GOP % in the state year after year.

Saginaw Valley
Posthumus 127605 – 43.90%
Granholm 159441 – 54.85%
Greens – 2371, Taxpayers - 1251
Granholm won by 31836.

Posthumus lost here, but did better than Bush, who only got 41% here. Midland is heavily GOP, but the rest of the counties lean democrat.

Arenac County
Posthumus – 2611 – 47.34%
Granholm - 2821 – 51.14%, won by 210
Posthumus Best Votes - Turner Township, won by 50
Posthumus Best % - Turner Township, 65.22%
Granholm Best Votes – Deep River Township by 117
Granholm Best % - Standish Township, 58.65%

Socially conservative area on Saginaw Bay, but heavily union. Many GM workers commute to nearby Bay City 25 miles south. Posthumus and Bush performed equally here. Between Bay and Ogemaw counties on I-75.

Gladwin County
Posthumus 4569 – 50.59%, won by 219
Granholm 4350 – 48.17%
Posthumus Best Votes - Butman Township by 100
Posthumus Best % - Grout Township – 56.61%
Granholm Best Votes – Hay Township by 91
Granholm Best % - Hay Township - 59.82%

Posthumus slightly outperformed Bush in this locally dem leaning county. Bush won here as well. A lot of corrections officers. Socially conservative area. Between Arenac and Clare Counties.

Midland County
Posthumus 17156 – 57.43%, won by 4814
Granholm 12342 – 41.31%
Posthumus Best Votes - Midland City by 2661
Posthumus Best % - Larkin Township - 66.51%
Granholm was swept.

Between Mt. Pleasant and Bay Counties. The main GOP area. Dow Chemical headquarters is here and dominates the area. Posthumus ran 2% higher than Bush here.

Bay County
Posthumus 18001 – 45.28%
Granholm 21190 – 53.30%, won by 3189
Posthumus Best Votes - Frankenlust township by 314
Posthumus Best % - Midland City – 64.29%(one precinct)
Granholm Best Votes – Bay City by 2440
Granholm Best % - Bay City 59.50%

GM Country. Bay County amazes me. Very pro-gun. Pro-life. Catholic. Somewhat populist, but they keep voting for the dems (party of da workin man….), even a Klinton clone. Granholm underperformed Gore by 2% here. It IS possible for a GOP’er to win here (Joel Gergeron, John Engler), but it’s very tough. Social issues can cut into the dem base here though. Probably easier to win than Saginaw because of less minorities.

Saginaw County
Posthumus 33440 – 46.27%
Granholm 38051 – 52.65%, won by 4611
Posthumus Best Votes - Frankenmuth Township by 975
Posthumus Best % - Frankenmuth City – 76.60%
Granholm Best Votes – Saginaw City by 7051
Granholm Best % - Buena Vista Township – 78.94%

Another GM Union county, although regional. Western Saginaw County is rural and the west suburbs are Republican leans. Frankenmuth is extremely Republican, Bavarian, and conservative. It’s not “Gertude Schroeder” German. The City of Saginaw however is a democrat stronghold, as are the east burbs like Bridgeport and Buena Vista. Granholm again ran 2% behind Gore here. It’s not impossible to win Saginaw County(Mike Goshka won here, so did Engler). Some of the local seats are now going GOP now which would never happen in the past. Between Bay County and Genesee County. Most of the dem areas are along I-75.

Genesee County
Posthumus 51828 – 38.62%
Granholm 80687 – 60.12%, won by 28859
Posthumus Best Votes - Fenton Township by 744
Posthumus Best % Atlas Township – 58.95%
Granholm Best Votes – Flint City by 18091
Granholm Best % - Flint City – 80.48%

Flint is the birthplace of the UAW, and this is the Rat’s number two county. This county is tougher to win than Rhode Island. Only John Engler did it and that was against Fieger. Granholm underperformed Gore here by 3%, but still got 60% here. Only Wayne County is more democrat. The only area that sometimes goes GOP here is the southern end of the county. Fenton and Grand Blanc. Flushing swings. Other than that, it’s solid D. Where I-75, I-69, and US-23 all meet.

Posthumus 38543 – 53.11%
Granholm 33212 – 45.76%
Greens – 544, Taxpayers - 275
Posthumus won by 5331 votes.

Bush and Posthumus performed about the same here. Mostly rural and small towns. The western counties are more GOP, the eastern one more democrat.

Osceola County
Posthumus 4399 – 59.13%, won by 1426
Granholm 2973 – 39.97%
Posthumus Best Votes - Highland Township by 173
Posthumus Best % - Highland Township – 71.90%
Granholm was swept.

Rural area between Cadillac and Big Rapids. Very GOP. Posthumus ran 2% higher than Bush here.

Clare County
Posthumus 4578 – 48.56%
Granholm 4719 – 50.05%, won by 141
Posthumus Best Votes - Grant Township by 123
Posthumus Best % - Arthur Township 71.98%
Granholm Best Votes – Hayes Township by 143
Granholm Best % - Franklin Township – 62.72%

“Gateway to the North” on US 127. Should be ours with all the outdoors and Jay Sporting Good dominating, but the dems won here again. Between Roscommon and Mt Pleasant. Granholm and Gore both won it with 50%.

Mecosta County
Posthumus 6197 – 54.66%
Granholm 5020 – 44.28%
Posthumus Best Votes - Morton Township by 219
Posthumus Best % - Deerfield Township – 64.19%
Granholm Best Votes – Martiny Township by 80
Granholm Best % - Martiny Township – 57.50%

West of Mt. Pleasant. Big Rapids is the main city there. Posthumus and Bush ran about equal there. M-20 and US 131.

Isabella County
Posthumus 7428 – 48.80%
Granholm 7534 – 49.50%, won by 106
Posthumus Best Votes - Deerfield Township by 157
Posthumus Best % - Broomfield Township – 60.69%
Granholm Best Votes – City of Mt Pleasant by 724
Granholm Best % Clare City(one precinct) 85.71%

Engler’s home county(Beal City). Only one precinct of Clare was in Isabella. Most of it was in Clare County, and the city overall went slightly GOP. Mt Pleasant however is a dem city and over 25% of the votes. It’s the home of Central Michigan University. The rest of the county leans GOP, even with the Chippewa reservation. Between Midland and Big Rapids, and Between Gratiot and Clare. Granholm and Gore performed about the same here.

Gratiot County
Posthumus 6252 – 54%, won by 1049
Granholm 5203 – 44.94%
Posthumus Best Votes - Wheeler Township by 185
Posthumus Best % Lafayette Township – 62.88%
Granholm Best Votes – City of Alma by 145
Granholm Best % - City of Alma – 52.39%

Solid GOP County, but Bush outperformed Posthumus by 1% here. Most of that was from Alma which was much more friendly to Granholm than Gore (who won it by 8 votes) I think Alma College had a lot to do with that. Granholm claims to be Catholic and I think Alma is a Catholic College. Between Mt Pleasant and Clinton County.

Montcalm County
Posthumus 9689 – 55.14%, won by 1926
Granholm 7763 – 44.18%
Posthumus Best Votes Pierson Township by 290
Posthumus Best % - Pierson Township - 65.23%
Granholm Best Votes – Greenville City by 79
Granholm Best % - Evergreen Township - 52.83%

West of Gratiot County. SW of Mt Pleasant. Bush and Posthumus performed about the same percentagewise here.

West Michigan
Posthumus 352218 – 57.59%
Granholm 253832 – 41.50%
Greens – 3777, Taxpayers - 1778
Posthumus won by 98386 votes.

Lake County
Posthumus 1671 – 45.84%
Granholm 1904 – 52.24%, won by 233
Posthumus Best Votes – Chase Township by 47
Posthumus Best % - Pinora Township – 59.07%
Granholm Best Votes – Yates Township by 126
Granholm Best % - Yates Township – 82.11%

Gore Got 55% here. This is the poorest county in the entire state, and also has a sizable black population. Between Ludington and Reed City.

Mason County
Posthumus 5594 – 53.09%, won by 792
Granholm 4802 – 45.58%
Posthumus Best Votes – Hamlin Township by 159
Posthumus Best % - Meade Township – 73.85%
Granholm Best Votes – Free Soil Township by 56
Granholm Best % - Free Soil Twp – 56.98%

Ludington Area. Posthumus won everywhere except Free Soil Township. He did slightly less than Bush here.

Oceana County
Posthumus 4637 – 53.91%, won by 751
Granholm 3886 – 45.18%
Posthumus Best Votes – Shelby Township by 145
Posthumus Best % - Elbridge Township – 62.55%
Granholm Best Votes – Newfield Township by 126
Granholm Best % - Newfield Township – 57.63%

Newaygo County
Posthumus 8910 – 58.06%
Granholm 6268 – 40.84%
Posthumus Best Votes – Fremont City by 320
Posthumus Best % - Monroe Township – 71.11%
Granholm Best Votes – Merrill Township by 51
Granholm Best % - Merrill Township – 61.65%

Muskegon County
Posthumus 22600, 42.72%
Granholm 29884, 56.49%, won by 7284
Posthumus Best Votes – Fruitport Township by 238
Posthumus Best % - Raveena Townshipt – 61.45%
Granholm Best Votes – City of Muskegon by 3480
Granholm Best % - City of Muskegon Heights – 92.78%

This is the dem stronghold of West Michigan. Granholm even bested Gore’s 55% here. Granholm’s 92% in Muskegon Hgts, 69% in Muskegon, and 57% in Muskegon Township and Roosevelt Park led the way. Heavily union. Muskegon Heights is also about 90% black.

Kent County
Posthumus 117755 – 60.63%, won by 42932
Granholm 74823 – 38.53%
Posthumus Best Votes – City of Wyoming by 4064
Posthumus Best % - Bowne Township – 83.27%
Granholm Best Votes – City of Grand Rapids by 968
Granholm Best % - City of Grand Rapids – 50.30%

Posthumus was from here, and this is the anchor of the GOP in Michigan. Posthumus ran 1% better than Bush, mostly from his improvement in Grand Rapids, where Gore won by 2859. Posthumus ran 55% or better in every city or township here besides GR.

Ionia County
Posthumus 10232 – 55.88%, won by 2313
Granholm 7919 – 43.25%
Posthumus Best Votes – Boston Township by 439
Posthumus Best % - Campbell Township – 74.70%
Granholm Best Votes – City of Ionia by 173
Granholm Best % - City of Ionia – 54.91%

Strongly GOP between Lansing and Grand Rapids. BAD county for Posthumus though since Bush got about 58% there. There’s a prison(State or federal I’m not sure) in Ionia, and that’s likely where the difference was made. Corrections workers. Particulary if it is state workers.

Ottawa County
Posthumus 62464 – 71.22%, won by 37810
Granholm 24654 – 28.11%
Posthumus Best Votes – Georgetown Township by 10563
Posthumus Best % - Jamestown Township – 89.15%
Granholm was swept.

One of the most GOP counties in the US, and the top county in the state. Anchored by Holland in the SW, Grand Haven in the NW, and the Grand Rapids Suburbs in the NE. 6 townships here were more than 80% Posthumus. Bush also received 71% here.

Barry County
Posthumus 11943 - 58.93%, won by 3807
Granholm 8136 – 40.15%
Posthumus Best Votes – Thornapple Township by 1006
Posthumus Best % - Irving Township - 72.13%
Granholm was swept.

Barry County is another strong county for the GOP. It’s between Lansing and Kalamazoo, and between Grand Rapids and Jackson.

Allegan County
Posthumus 21695 – 62.28%, won by 8923
Granholm 12272 – 36.66%
Posthumus Best Votes – Holland City by 1212
Posthumus Best % - Overisel Township – 90.23%
Granholm Best Votes – Sawgatuk Township by 113
Granholm Best % - Sawgatuk City – 55.68%

One of the best 5 GOP Counties for the GOP. Bush got 63% here. Just South of Ottawa County, and part of Holland is in both counties.

Kalamazoo County
Posthumus 34795 – 46.54%
Granholm 39090 – 52.29%, won by 4295
Posthumus Best Votes – Texas Township by 681
Posthumus Best % - Wakeshma Township – 64.56%
Granholm Best Votes – Kalamazoo City by 5108
Granholm Best % - Kalamazoo City – 64.26%

One of Posthumus’s worst Counties, especially compared with Bush who lost it by 558 votes total. The city is heavily dem, with Western Michigan University in the West End, and a large black population in the north end. Kalamazoo College is here too. The suburbs aren’t as GOP here anymore either. Portage was almost 50/50, and Comstock went for Gore AND Granholm. Same with Kzoo Township. The GOP needs to rebound here, or make up votes elsewhere.

Van Buren County
Posthumus 10685 – 49.93%, won by 167
Granholm 10518 – 49.15%
Posthumus Best Votes – Hartford Township by 153
Posthumus Best % - Hartford Township - 62.15%
Granholm Best Votes – Paw Paw Township by 238
Granholm Best % - Covert Township – 72.26%

Marginal County between Kalamazoo and Berrien Counties. Covert is a bigtime dem area with a large black population. Hartford is strongly GOP.

Berrien County
Posthumus 23378 – 57.24%, won by 6284
Granholm 17094 – 41.85%
Posthumus Best Votes – Lincoln Township by 1834
Posthumus Best % - Bainbridge Township – 73.44%
Granholm Best Votes – City of Benton Harbor by 1273
Granholm Best % - City of Benton Harbor – 94.44%

Southwesternmost Michigan. Benton Harbor(Mostly known for rioting lately) and Benton Township are dem strongholds, and Niles(city) leans dem, but they don’t have enough votes to affect most of the county. The rest of the county is largely 60%+ GOP. Posthumus ran 2% higher than Bush, probably most of that has to do with Benton turnout.

Cass County
Posthumus – 6845 – 53.77%, won by 1104
Granholm – 5741 – 45.10%
Posthumus Best Votes – Porter Township by 370
Posthumus Best % - Porter Township - 66.07%
Granholm Best Votes – Dowagiac City by 199
Granholm Best % - Dowagiac City – 58.13%

Mostly GOP County outside LaGrange and Dowagiac. Posthumus and Bush ran about the same here.

St Joseph County
Posthumus 9014 – 58.10%, won by 2673
Granholm 6341 – 40.87%
Posthumus Best Votes – Sturgis City by 454
Posthumus Best % - Mottville Township - 68.79%
Granholm Best Votes – Three Rivers City by 57
Granholm Best % - Three Rivers City – 51.14%

Solid GOP. Between Berrien and Branch Counties on the Southern Border. Bush ran about the same as Posthumus here.

Posthumus 150606 – 46.97%
Granholm 166306 – 51.86%
Greens – 2488, Taxpayers - 1264
Granholm won by 15700 votes.

Shiawassee County
Posthumus – 12971 – 51.53%, won by 1128
Granholm – 11843 – 47.05%
Posthumus Best Votes – Burns Township by 304
Posthumus Best % - Burns Township – 6238%
Granholm Best Votes – Hazelton Township by 76
Granholm Best % - Hazelton Township - 54.19%

A swing county between Flint and Lansing with a lot of ticket splitters. Bush ran 2-3% lower than Posthumus here. Very blue collar county and socially conservative with a populist streak. Posthumus got within 24 votes of Granholm in Owosso as well, which is much of the difference in the county.

Clinton County
Posthumus – 13711 – 52.61%, won by 1641
Granholm – 12070 – 46.32%
Posthumus Best Votes – Dallas Township by 470
Posthumus Best % - Dallas Township – 75.16%
Granholm Best Votes – DeWitt Township by 270
Granholm Best % - East Lansing City(small area) – 56.90%

Just North of Lansing. This was a Posthumus “win”, but in truth, this is a butt kicking for what is usually a solid GOP County. This is due to the state workers in the Southern end (Bath and DeWitt), many of whom that would normally vote Republican. Bush SWEPT every part of the County except East Lansing. This is a big gun county and is socially conservative. The good news is that state workers do not work for George Bush. Bush got 56% here last time.

Eaton County
Posthumus 18247 – 47.47%
Granholm 20395 – 52.61%, won by 2148
Posthumus Best Votes – Eaton Township by 144
Posthumus Best % - Brookfield Township – 57.68%
Granholm Best Votes – Delta Township by 1328
Granholm Best % - Lansing City 80.40%

Just West of Lansing. In my opinion, this was Posthumus worst county. State Workers are the reason once again.Bush won this county with 50%, and outperformed Posthumus by 3%. The part of Lansing here is a rough area. Charlotte, Grand Ledge, and Delta Township are all tough areas to win(Lansing commuters), but Bush won all three. Granholm got over 53 ½ % in all of them. I think this is more of an aberration though, and expect this to be a 50/50 county in 04.

Ingham County
Posthumus 34414 – 37.74%
Granholm 55571 – 60.95%, won by 21157
Posthumus Best Votes – Locke Township by 144
Posthumus Best % - Locke Township – 58.53%
Granholm Best Votes – City of Lansing by 12170
Granholm Best % - City of East Lansing – 70.58%

A complete blowout. Granholm ran about 4% ahead of Gore here, again the State Workers being key. Granholm not only won big in the expected areas of Lansing, Lansing Twp, and East Lansing, she got 58% in Meridian Township(Soccer moms and state workers), and won both areas of Williamston. Williamstown Township was Bush’s best area last time. Ironically, despite a Dem trouncing in this county, Mike Rogers not only won it big, he even won the city of Lansing, and only lost in East Lansing. The GOP is going to have to regroup here, but I think they will. The chair here seems like a good guy, and I’ve seen him active. If they can hold the dem under 55%, it will be good.

Jackson County
Posthumus 24344 – 51.83%, won by 2308
Granholm 22036 – 46.92%
Posthumus Best Votes – Spring Arbor Township by 888
Posthumus Best % - Spring Arbor – 66.15%
Granholm Best Votes – City of Jackson by 1479
Granholm Best % - City of Jackson – 58.84%

Considering there is a lot of state workers(prison) here too in this County South of Lansing, this could have been worse. Posthumus ran slightly under Bush here. The City of Jackson is mostly democrat, and the rest of the county mostly leans republican.

Calhoun County
Posthumus 18759 – 46.36%
Granholm 21298 – 52.63%, won by 2539
Posthumus Best Votes – Clarence Township by 139
Posthumus Best % - Clarendon Township – 61.72%
Granholm Best Votes – City of Battle Creek by 1969
Granholm Best % - Albion City – 70.06%

Granholm did 2% better than Gore here too. Not sure the reasons, but some state workers down I-69 might commute to Lansing or Kalamazoo for colleges. Albion is solid dem, and Battle Creek leans strongly dem, but is winnable in a very good year.

Branch County
Posthumus – 6012 – 54.14%, won by 1011
Granholm – 5001 – 45.04%
Posthumus Best Votes – Quincy Township by 128
Posthumus Best % - Noble Township – 71.81
Granholm was swept.

Clean Sweep here, but Bush got about 1% better than Posthumus. On the Indiana Border along I-69 between Ft Wayne and Lansing.

Hillsdale County
Posthumus – 7498 – 60.33%, won by 2720
Granholm – 4778 – 38.45%
Posthumus Best Votes – Adams Township by 273
Posthumus Best % - Ransom Township – 68.78%
Granholm was swept.

On the Ohio Border East of Coldwater. Most known for its college that takes no government money. Very conservative area.

Lenawee County
Posthumus 14650 – 51.86%, won by 1336
Granholm 13314 – 47.13%
Posthumus Best Votes – Adrian Township by 201
Posthumus Best % - Odgen Township – 64.18%
Granholm Best Votes – City of Adrian by 816
Granholm Best % - City of Adrian 58.18%

Posthumus 71311 – 56.24%
Granholm 53342 – 42.09%
Greens – 1126, Taxpayers - 921
Posthumus won by 17969.

Huron County
Posthumus 7218 – 59.48%, won by 2435
Granholm 4783 – 39.41%
Posthumus Best Votes – Sebewaing Township by 308
Posthumus Best % - Bloomfield Township 75.12%
Granholm was swept.

Posthumus cleaned up here and ran 4% higher than Bush did in 2000. Northernmost Thumb County. I think much of this was due to Granholm’s “rich suburban lib” personality, which does not play well in aggie, working class, blue collar country.

Sanilac County
Posthumus 8581 – 60.94%, won by 3316
Granholm 5265 – 37.39%
Posthumus Best Votes – Marlette Township by 308
Posthumus Best % - Flynn Township – 73.61%
Granholm Best Votes – Austin Township by 3
Granholm Best % - Austin Township 50.25%

Posthumus ran slightly ahead of Bush here and almost swept Granholm. Along the Lake Huron Shore.

Tuscola County
Posthumus 10824 – 56.32%, won by 2727
Granholm 8097 – 42.13%
Posthumus Best Votes – Denmark Township by 454
Posthumus Best % - Denmark Township - 67.29%
Granholm Best Votes – Indianfields Township by 12
Granholm Best % - Indianfields Township – 49.04%

Posthumus ran 3% ahead of Bush here. More union than other parts of the thumb since it’s not far from Saginaw and Bay City. Very pro-2a here, and also very Independent. Dems can win here, and they have had (may still have) a democrat sheriff.

Lapeer County Posthumus 17041 – 58.98%, won by 5657
Granholm 11384 – 39.40%
Posthumus Best Votes – Dryden Township by 567
Posthumus Best % - Burnside Township – 73.77%
Granholm Best Votes – Marathon Township by 39
Granholm Best % - Marathon Township – 50.10%

Posthumus ran about 4% higher than Bush here. Southernmost Thumb county and heavily building since it’s North of Suburban Oakland County and East of Flint.

St Clair County
Posthumus 27647 – 52.76%, won by 3834
Granholm 23813 – 45.44%
Posthumus Best Votes – Clay Township by 583
Posthumus Best % - Brockway Township - 64.70%
Granholm Best Votes – City of Port Huron by 937
Granholm Best % - City of Port Huron - 54.54%

A big win for Posthumus since Bush won with only 49% here. Port Huron is dem, as is Marysville and Kimball Township, but the rest of the county leans GOP. One of the most pro-2a areas in the entire state.

SE Michigan (Outside 3 county Detroit area)
Posthumus 97624 –46.85%
Granholm 107846 – 51.76%
Greens – 2202, Taxpayers - 687
Granholm won by 10222.

Livingston County
Posthumus – 36669 – 61.86%, won by 14693
Granholm – 22006 – 37.09%
Posthumus Best Votes – Brighton Township by 2221
Posthumus Best % - Iosco Township – 68.80%
Granholm was swept.

Well, we did our part. Posthumus ran 2% better than Bush did here, although we couldn’t crack 65% like we wanted. We did have higher than normal turnout for an off year though. The two townships that sometimes go dem went for Posthumus with 57% and 59%, probably due to the same reason the Thumb overachieved for Posthumus, and due to an aggie running for state representative. Guns, abortion, and taxes/spending are three huge issues in this county on the national level. Roads are big as well.

Washtenaw County
Posthumus 39659 – 35.90%
Granholm 65995 – 61.41%, won by 26336
Posthumus Best Votes – Lodi Township by 476
Posthumus Best % - Saline Township - 58.68%
Granholm Best Votes – City of Ann Arbor by 18126
Granholm Best % - City of Ann Arbor - 74.10%

Usually the 3rd most democrat county in the state behind only Genesee County and Wayne County, but Granholm did even better here than in Genesee thanks to an even better performance in Ann Arbor than Gore. Between Ann Arbor, Ypsilanti, Scio, Superior, and Pittsfield, it is almost impossible for a Republican to win. Only John Engler did it recently, and that was against Geoffrey Fieger(who lost Ann Arbor) of all people. Granholm ran 1% better than Gore here.

Monroe County
Posthumus 21266 – 51.17%, won by 1421
Granholm 19845 – 47.75%
Posthumus Best Votes – Bedford Township by 819
Posthumus Best % - Whiteford Township - 62.12%
Granholm Best Votes – City of Monroe by 570
Granholm Best % - City of Luna Pier - 56.80%

A good win for Posthumus in a tough county which Gore won. Dingell Country, and very pro-2a. The home of Cabelas, which is a sportsman’s paradise. A lot of blue collar social conservatives here, as well as a lot of union support.

Detroit Area
Posthumus 518896 – 41.22%
Granholm 725268 – 57.61%
Greens – 9912 Taxpayers – 4755
Granholm won by 206372

Macomb County
Posthumus 132853 – 51.64%, won by 11518
Granholm 121065 – 47.16%
Posthumus Best Votes – Shelby Township by 4910
Posthumus Best % - Lake Township – 78.95%
Granholm Best Votes – City of Warren by 3472
Granholm Best % - City of Mt Clemens - 60.01%

Posthumus had his best win here and ran 3-4% higher than Bush did. Gore won Macomb by 8360. St Clair Shores was a huge win and a bellwether of the county. Sterling Heights is a tough area, but both Posthumus and Bush won there. The Northern Townships went big for Posthumus, and he also cut his losses in Warren by almost half. Gore won it by 15% He only lost Mt Clemens by over 20%, while Bush lost Center Line, East Pointe, Mt Clemens, and Roseville by 20%. A populist county known for the ‘Reagan democrats”, this is a pro-gun, pro-life, anti-tax, anti-NAFTA/GATT, and pro-union county.

Oakland County
Posthumus 210414 – 48.30%
Granholm 220082 – 50.52%, won by 9668
Posthumus Best Votes – Rochester Hills by 5050
Posthumus Best % - Addison Township - 66.99%
Granholm Best Votes – City of Southfield by 19339
Granholm Best % - Royal Oak Township(Not city) – 93.42%

Granholm ran 1% of Gore here, and demographics are turning this county more and more RAT. A lot of the old type Reaganites in this county are moving to the ends of the county and to others areas like Lapeer, Livingston, and Macomb Counties, while a lot of Detroiters are moving to Southfield and Oak Park.

The North and West ends of the county are the most GOP. Novi, Milford, Orion, Independence (Clarkston), Oakland, etc. These are the exhurbs and fastest growing areas of the county. The Livingston County and Lapeer County Borders are the best areas.

SE end – Oakland’s Democrat Base. Below 13 or 14 mile and east of Telegraph, there are few republicans. Ferndale is known as the gay friendly area of Michigan. Royal Oak is liberal, although some republicans do win there. Southfield has a black majority, as does Oak Park and Royal Oak Township, all of which border Detroit to the south. Pleasant Ridge is Jim Blanchard’s home, and Huntington Woods is Gilda Jacobs country. Blanchard is the taxman, and Gilda is our state’s Dianne Feinstein. An election day snowstorm here would be nice.

Central to Central East – Rochester and Troy are solid GOP areas. Pontiac is a dem stronghold and a GM town. Auburn Hills(Home of the Pistons) leans dem with Diamler-Chrysler, but isn’t solid dem. Tom McMillan won there several times, and just won a county commish seat from there. He’s ultra conservative and fights the RINOS as much as the dems. Waterford is a blue-collar marginal GOP area that the dems have been trying and failing to win for years. Birmingham is more liberal, but republican. West Bloomfield (heavily Jewish) will be interesting. It went GOP for congress (Knollenberg) several times, but Gore won by 14% there, and Granholm won by 19%. How will the Middle East affect the vote there. The other Bloomfields are more GOP. Farmington Hills is the Meridian Township of Oakland County and currently leans slightly dem. If Bush can carry all these areas, he should take it. Mike Cox was able to do it without running to the left, despite his opponent being from one of the Bloomfields. It’s not impossible

Wayne County
Posthumus 175899 – 31.05%
Granholm 384121 – 67.81%, won by 208222
Posthumus Best Votes – City of Livonia by 3657
Posthumus Best % - Grosse Point Township – 76.48%
Granholm Best Votes – City of Detroit by 191037
Granholm Best % - City of Highland Park – 95.10%

Posthumus ran 2% higher than Bush here, but this is still an ass kicking. A very Regional County.

Detroit is the brick wall all Republicans need to get by. If Detroit GOTV, we lose. They didn’t vote massively for Granholm like they did for Gore turnout wise, but it was enough to win. Bush and Posthumus both got 5% in Detroit.

Grosse Points – Solid GOP. Granholm ran slightly ahead of Gore here, but that’s to be more expected since a Granholm type of democrat plays better in that area. Posthumus still won big here.

South Wayne/Downriver – Traditionally social conservative but Democrat and union, Bush only won two Downriver Areas. Dearborn and Grosse Ile. Posthumus did much better here than Bush, winning Allen Park (+6 over Bush), Gibraltar (+8 over Bush), and Huron Township (+ 10 over Bush), as well as Grosse Ile. He lost Dearborn though. Gore got 60%+ in Lincoln Park, Melvindale, Southgate, Taylor, Wayne, and Wyandotte. Granholm failed to get 60% in all of those areas. However, Romulus, Ecorse, River Rouge, Inkster all went 68%+ for Granholm with their large black populations.

West Wayne – more GOP friendly than the rest of the county, but Granholm is from here and cancels out some of this. Bush got 62% in Northville Township and 56% in the City of Northville, but Posthumus was held to 56% and 52% in those areas since Granholm is from there. Posthumus lost Plymouth City which Bush won, and ran 3% behind Bush in Plymouth Township. Dems win big again in Westland. Livonia was 53-54% GOP once again. Redford 54% dem again. Granholm was held to 50-51% in Dearborn Heights.

What I said then:
Disadvantage – Economy, economy, economy. If anything causes the dem to lose, this will be it. Especially out in the hinderlands where tourism is the number one industry. No money means no vacation, means up north is hurting bad, which means no votes. The other one – REVENGE. Bush “stole” the election. The dems hate Bush like we all hated Klinton. They will be out voting. Count on it.

Now – Agree. In Michigan, the economy is still rough, and we are losing JOBS. This is the biggest problem that Bush will have. Revenge will be a factor, and if the dems can wave the racist card and get away with it, they will.

Then:
Advantage – Foreign policy. The papers hate it, but Americans love winners and hate wimps. Simplistic, but accurate. The dems crybaby fest helps us. Several swing voters I know want then to shut the hell up. Another advantage is the primary. The dems will be beating the crap out of each other, and we have an early primary in this state. That helps us, since we see the heat flying and whoever wins will be hurting. Dem arrogance is another advantage. Most of the dems Bush-bashing isn’t specific policy critique. They turn the nose up and call Bush, moron, top gun, etc. The advantage to that is that it causes conservatives to go f-you to them. Much like 98 was a good year for the dems(outside Michigan thanks to our friend Fieger). Conservatives went off on Klinton’s affairs and stuff,(They should have gone after him for China) which was viewed as minor stuff. Compared to China, FBI files and the Travel Office, it’s real minor. This time, it goes to our advantage. The dems can beat themselves here.

Still agree, but to a lesser extendt. The WMD may be a factor. The primary is starting to be a factor. The sneering is still around there. What happens in Iraq is key.

Wildcards – Judges, ballot initiatives, Guns. – What will SCOTUS hear near that time. That may influence decisions. I was not a republican in 2000. I was indy. I finally switched from Harry Brown to Bush based on SCOTUS and Janet Reno. Ballot initiatives are the most unpredictable. With Granholm as govenor, something can be expected there. School Vouchers brought a lot of teachers and their friends to the polls. Lastly, guns. If Bush signs the AW ban, I really think Michigan will go dem again, because of the Northlands and Macomb. If the AW ban doesn’t pass, gunowners will forgive him for the talk. If Bush signs the gun lawsuit ban, gunowners will walk precincts for him. We’ll see what happens there.

So far there are petitions out on affirmative action and abortion. This is going to be a huge wildcard this November. I still agree with this 100% SPENDING and IMMIGRATION will kill him here though unless that is in control, ASAP.

Then
Overall - John Kerry’s elitism won’t play well here. Gephart’s populism though on the otherhand may win him this state. Gore went populist at the end here last time and won. Graham scares me as well, and Dean’s gun stance (same as W’s) may make things interesting. He;s a former governor too, and they are the presidents, not senators. I think the biggest key swing areas are the Northlands, Macomb, St Clair, Monroe, Lenawaee, Shiawassee and Eaton. Will those conservative dems and independents go for Bush in 04? Oakland is also important. If Bush can walk a tightrope and get those Oakland moderates (and Meridian) to back him WITHOUT alienating the other swing areas, he has a good shot unless Detroit pulls more tricks than usual. It’s real early though. Mike Cox did it. Can Bush repeat it?

Now:
Agree on Kerry. Gep is retired, thank God. Dean hurt himself bad with Sit Down and Yeawwwwwwww. Other than that, I agree.

Then Odds so far? IMO Bush vs Kerry – 55% chance to win Michigan (55% chance to win, not 55% of the vote) – Kerry is too elitist for this state and his wife’s a loose cannon. We’re a blue collar state and wear that on our sleeve. Two words. Dukakis and Tank. One more word. WEAK.

I have to knock that down to 52% with the jobs leaving in West Michigan, and Oldsmobile likely being discontinued.

Bush vs Edwards – 57% win - Trial Lawyers aren’t liked here. John, meet Geoff Fieger, 1998 disaster.

I think I was being overconfident on Edwards. I didn’t expect him to do as well as he did so far. 52% odds with the jobs, southern accent, and soccer moms. That goes to 50% if he gets organization.

Bush vs Dean – 50% - I have to see him in action more, but his stances could give a few surprises. The dem base seems to really like him though.

52% now. Dean is still dangerous with organization, but he opened his mouth BADLY.

Bush vs Hillary – 55% - She won’t play well in the hinderlands or Macomb. Abrasive, elitist, and uberliberal. She’s not Bill.

My Hitlery prediction stays the same. Bob Graham, Gep, and Lieberman(will be soon) are gone so I didn’t cover them.

Wesley Clark - 50% - Unknown still, some organization, outsider and general. Could be a big problem.

Lastly, I think it will be within 5% either way who wins here. We’re gonna have a fight, and need to be prepared for one.

If Bush wins Michigan on election night it will be a long depressing night for the Rats. A win in Michigan means an electoral landslide. I hope he campaigns a lot there, as well as Mn, and WI. I think he is likely to win the latter states rather than the former.

Excellent analysis, as usual. I think the secret for Bush will be to increase the GOP vote in the Detroit suburbs (traditionally GOP, but which trended RAT in the post-Cold-War 1990s) while keeping the Reagan Democrat vote in blue-collar areas (I don't think Bush needs to increase his percentages in the UP or in most other rural areas, just do as well as he did last time). I think Kerry would have a hard time winning blue-collar social conservatives---Gore was a better fit for such voters. But if Kerry picks Gephardt as his running mate, he may end up being a tougher cookie than he appears.

Incredibly, my one comment on the numbers is on the tiny bit of Midland City that lies in Bay County. You said that Posthumus got 64.29%in the one precinct of Midland City in Bay County, but I am positive that Gore got over 60% of the vote in that part of Midland City.

They didn't turn out there

Turnout says it all. TV ads have little impact on turnout. Knocking on doors. Talking to neighbors. Talking to friends at work, at church, at whereever is the way to get turnout.

'94 ? We really changed no more minds in '94 than any other year. But the Moral Majority peaked in its effort to register and GOTV (Get Out The Vote). That was true in Michigan. It was certainly true in Chicagoland and downstate Illinois when we took every statewide office. It was true nationwide.

Michigan generally boils down to Detroit. They stay home...we win.

Dont give the RATS anything to use as 'Racism" charges. Generally they make something up anyhow, but still be careful.

Joel Gergeron(I may be spelling his name wrong) was a state senator from Bay City. He was one of the few Republicans to win out in Bay County. His district covered Bay County and a few thumb counties(Tuscola, probably Huron)

The seat he holds now is now held by former congressman Jim Barcia(who isn't bad for a democrat) who was redistricted out since he had to likely face Dale Kildee otherwise.

I was way off on the name. Joel Gougeon was who won, and won enough to be term limited out. He last won in 98(Although Geoff Fieger was on the Ticket then), but he won in 94 as well, and likely before that from state rep or another spot. Arenac, Bay, and Ogemaw are all democrat leaning. Huron is solid GOP, and Tuscola marginal.

Joel Gougeon vs Tom Alley(D) - 1998

TOTAL - Gougeon - Alley
06 ARENAC 5,311 2,232 3,079
09 BAY 38,842 21,785 17,057
32 HURON 11,787 9,069 2,718
65 OGEMAW 7,710 2,727 4,983
79 TUSCOLA 17,827 11,591 6,236

Totals 81,477 47,404 34,073

That's a solid win, even with major coattails in a bigtime GOP year.

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