[AuH2ORepublican]

Excellent analysis, as usual. I think the secret for Bush will be to increase the GOP vote in the Detroit suburbs (traditionally GOP, but which trended RAT in the post-Cold-War 1990s) while keeping the Reagan Democrat vote in blue-collar areas (I don't think Bush needs to increase his percentages in the UP or in most other rural areas, just do as well as he did last time). I think Kerry would have a hard time winning blue-collar social conservatives---Gore was a better fit for such voters. But if Kerry picks Gephardt as his running mate, he may end up being a tougher cookie than he appears.

Incredibly, my one comment on the numbers is on the tiny bit of Midland City that lies in Bay County. You said that Posthumus got 64.29%in the one precinct of Midland City in Bay County, but I am positive that Gore got over 60% of the vote in that part of Midland City.

[Dan from Michigan]

It was 31-17 Gore in that part of Midland.

And 9-5 Posthumus. They didn't turn out there.