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Posted on 06/20/2026 1:34:41 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
When Donald Trump signed the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran earlier this week, the accepted narrative was that it was an abject failure of US foreign policy. What had begun with the dramatic assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei in the opening seconds of the war had concluded with America’s hands tied.
But this rhetoric fails to align with the reality within Iran. Beneath the noise, the regime, with its nuclear capabilities and ballistic stockpile severely downgraded, is also in a vulnerable position – perhaps the most weak it has been in its 47 years. I fled the regime myself 28 years ago, and have coordinated protests from within and outside the country, including the bloodiest ones in its near five decade history earlier this year which saw tens of thousands of my fellow countrymen slaughtered. Despite relentless IRGC propaganda, the regime is on the brink.
The war has exposed deep divisions within the government. While the less radical part of it (a relative concept) understands they have no choice but to accept demands dictated by the US if they want to survive, there is no shortage of those that remain ideologically committed to a fight to the bitter end. This has fuelled nightly street protests, with each side accusing the other of betrayal and acting as agents of Mossad and the US.
An under-explored aspect of this conflict is the tension within the regime and the possibility that the two sides could turn their weapons on each other. Two hardliners thirsty for power are consolidating their power bases and engaged in a vicious briefing war: the current commander of the IRGC Ahmad Vahidi is pitted against Mohammad Bagher-Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian parliament and lead negotiator for the regime.
Looming over this volatility is the continuing absence of the supposed...
(Excerpt) Read more at spectator.com ...
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AI Overview
According to a classified CIA assessment, Iran retains roughly 70% of its prewar ballistic missile stockpile and about 75% of its mobile missile launchers.
It’s good the Ayatollah is dead. A whole era died with him. Everything we see now is temporary. Now Neocons need to back off and let God move.
And the U-235 is in lead lined steel bottles...intact.
Anyone with access can retrieve them.
If you’re a political commentator, left or right wing hack, content creator, or influencer, the past four months have been a windfall for “content”. As far as the Iran war working, at this point I don’t believe very many people know what’s really going on, and we’re not going to have a solid answer to the question for at least a few years.
Which CIA made this assessment? The real CIA or the deep state CIA still trying to take President Trump out?
I thought the issue was nukes, and uranium? You know, at a certain point, just drop the pretense and say you want to nuke Iran.
An anti-American AI site, you think?
Behind every AI comment/answer is one or more persons.
Summary: "Did the Iran war work?" by Vahid Beheshti (The Spectator, June 20, 2026)The author, an Iranian dissident who fled the regime 28 years ago and has coordinated protests against it, argues that the recent US-Iran war—despite widespread media portrayal as a failure—has significantly weakened the Islamic Republic, leaving it more vulnerable than at any point in its 47-year history. Key Points:
A statement that becomes meaningless if that vulnerability is not taken advantage of to eliminate the regime. And that would have been far better pursued without all the constraints of this peace agreement.
It looks to me like my riff off Elrond 3 months ago was right target.
They don’t want to nuke Iran or anyone else. They want Trump to be wrong. That’s all
It worked out well for Iran that’s for sure.
That's fair...An Iraqi official wrote an article after Dick Cheney died. And it offered a very nuanced portrait of the impact of the war. Not everything is black and white.
Iraq is doing better apparently...
Afghanistan though? oye...
I believe in St. Paul’s mantra “walk by faith, not by sight.”
How something looks on paper, can be totally opposite of what is God is doing behind the scenes. What’s most important is the well being of the civilian population and the economic livelihood of everyone in the world!
And when people say they want to Trump to “FINISH THE JOB” notice they never really go into detail of what that actually means?
It means complete annihilation...and like a drug, Iran won’t be enough. It’ll be onto the next one after that. Lebanon, Syria, then Turkey?! Can’t do China.
How about waiting till the whole thing is over to ask that?
Begging the question.
The narrative that the whole Iranian expeditionary engagement was an “abject failure” is but one of many assessments of the current state of events. The story is by no means complete, and it may decades before the full import of the toll on that tormented land may be examined in the cold light of logic and history.
The myth of the “invincibility” of the Islamic Republic of Iran is definitely shattered. In the end, the ayatollahs and the IRGC are mere men, and not the supernaturally endowed guardians of Allah. That regime probably lasted a lot longer than the Third Reich of Germany, which only had twelve years and not the “Thousand Years” that Adolf Hitler promised the German people.
The first few days worked. After that not so much.
Vance addressed that at the WH briefing ,said it was inaccufate. I loved that Chomsky (of all people !)quote on yesterday’s thread that AI is just a high capacity plagiarizer ( admittedly 2023 edition )
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