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Posted on 06/15/2026 5:27:07 AM PDT by Red Badger
The national average for U.S. gasoline prices has hovered above the politically sensitive $4-per-gallon level for 76 days, or roughly 2.5 months, as the Gulf energy shock tightened physical markets and forced emergency SPR draws.
But with President Trump declaring late Sunday, just 30 minutes before NY futures opened, that a US-Iran peace deal has been secured, and with WTI and Brent futures tumbling, pressure at the pump could begin to ease in the very near term.
National gasoline prices could slip back below $4 in the coming days or weeks if the crude selloff holds and traders begin pricing in a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Still, normalization of crude energy flows will likely take months, if not longer, to return to pre-war levels.
As of Sunday evening, AAA data show the national average for 87-octane gasoline stands at around $4.074.
Patrick De Haan, a petroleum analyst at GasBuddy, wrote on X shortly after Trump announced the peace deal that the national average for gas could fall to $3.75 by July 4.
De Haan wrote:
The U.S. and Iran signaling a deal has been struck. The next few days will be key to see if the agreement sticks, and if traffic begins moving in the Strait. WTI crude down 5%, as more confirmations come in days ahead, national average price of gasoline may continue to fade.
Beyond that, the national average could fall below $3.75/gal by July 4, under a optimistic timeline, but hurricane season could be a major wildcard for the rest of summer- tight global inventories mean it will take months or beyond to fully restore global oil inventories.
The next several weeks will be key- one major slip up could impact greatly prices moving forward. And with so many speedbumps in this situation, it may be foolish to think this problem is now completely over. Time will tell.
Surging gas and diesel prices over the last 2.5 months have added downward pressure on consumers, especially working-class households, who were hit with sticker shock at the pump. This shift in spending patterns is a concerning trend we have meticulously detailed:
LINKS AT SITE.................
Here’s What Happened Inside Convenience Stores When Gas Hit $4
Here’s What Happened Inside Gas Stations When Gas Hit $4
Beer Demand Goes Flat As Even Alcoholics Pull Back With Gas Above $4
Energy Drinks Become Latest Casualty As Fuel Shock Shifts Consumer Behavior
Three Factors Leave Salty-Snack Demand Stale
The combination of elevated gas prices and fading tax-refund tailwinds had already begun to expose cracks in the consumer economy, particularly among lower- and middle-income households. That likely served as a warning signal for the Trump administration: resolve the Middle East conflict before worsening consumer sentiment and pain at the pump become much larger political liabilities heading into the midterms.
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Was $3.99 at Costco in NJ the other day.
The gas is under $3 in Indiana.
It has been around 3.30 here for awhile now.
Where was it when I was paying $5/gal under Obama....and Obama caused it.
Kochul is causing the high utility prices here in NY with her Green policies. We have so much gas available...and they're still funding wind and solar.....Soooooo....I'm paying twice....mine and a piece of someone else's.
If the price of gasoline at the pump goes up within MINUTES of a crude price rise, it should go down at the same rate. It doesn’t. Someone is price gouging one way or another.
Why should it go down immediately?
The producers and retailers of refined products still have to try to make a profit on the sales of product made with more expensive oil.
You think they should just eat the loss?
I see these articles that keep saying $4, when I am almost $1 less than that. The real story in all this is voters in Blue states should be angry that they pay so much. I know that won’t happen, but it should.
Europeans laff at us.
Gasoline in Berlin is equivalent to about $8.50 per gallon today.
Paris, $5.54 - $6.00,
London, $8.00
Rome $7.62..................
That’s not how it works.............
Per AI...
“Refineries process a 42-gallon barrel of crude oil into over 6,000 different products. While the majority of the barrel is dedicated to transportation fuels, the byproducts create countless everyday items, ranging from plastics and cosmetics to clothing and asphalt.”
Just something to keep in mind.
Another poster with no idea how the industry works.
1. Gasoline margins are low
2. Cash flow is critical
3. Therefore the current price charged is based on the anticipated cost of the next delivery, in order to have cash to buy it
4. Therefore, nearly instant adjustments when the price goes up.
“Why should it go down immediately?”
Because the price goes up IMEDIATELY. If the price of crude rises in the morning, then the price at the pump rockets up 20 to 50 cents by noon. That product was paid for days or weeks ago at a lower price. They’ve already covered the “loss” with preemptive price rises. They’re either gouging at the front end or the back end. They can’t have it both ways.
5. It doesn’t go the other way, because then there is a loss on the gasoline in the current tanks
6. So it can only go up instantly, not down.
7. Eventually it can go down with continued price declines. Sometimes dramatically.
Gasoline prices rise quickly and fall slowly due to a combination of replacement cost economics, asymmetric consumer search behavior, and supply chain lags. This phenomenon is known by economists as “rockets and feathers.”
Replacement Costs and Margins:
Gas stations price fuel based on what it costs to replace the inventory, not what they paid for it. Because profit margins are razor-thin (typically 3-7 cents per gallon), stations must raise prices immediately when wholesale costs spike to avoid selling at a loss. However, when costs fall, they hold prices high to recover margins on existing inventory, only lowering prices once they purchase cheaper replacement stock.
Consumer Search Behavior:
When prices rise, consumers aggressively shop for the lowest price to save money, forcing all stations to raise prices quickly to avoid losing customers. Conversely, when prices fall, consumers become less motivated to search, allowing stations to lower prices slowly without significant competitive pressure or loss of market share.
Supply Chain Dynamics:
The physical supply chain moves slowly. While futures markets and refineries adjust prices instantly, physical gasoline moves through terminals and distributors over weeks. Stations and wholesalers often sit on inventory purchased at higher prices, delaying the pass-through of price drops to the consumer.
NY- $4.59 / gallon
MD- $3.69 / gallon
I suspect high state taxes per gallon.
Careful, screaming “gouging” is the siren call of a collectivist leftist.
“Gas stations price fuel based on what it costs to replace the inventory, not what they paid for it.”
Then prices should fall just as quickly as the inventory they are replacing is cheaper.
They can’t have it both ways.
They are gouging at either the front or back end. The equation doesn’t balance the way you describe it.
Ok. Retard.
IF the war is over - and that’s a big if - gas prices will go down. Trump’s energy policy is good, and he has set the stage internationally for low energy prices with his deals with Venezuela and Saudi Arabia and his containment of China (and his showing the world what a paper tiger China is and who little their allies can rely on them). And the war has caused Middle Eastern oil producers to get serious about alternatives like pipelines to circumvent the straits. So, if the Iran War is over, energy prices should plummet. Maybe not in time for the election but over the next year, they will plummet.
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