Posted on 05/31/2026 9:20:57 AM PDT by MtnClimber
If the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz is a game of chicken, it sounds as though the Iranians will either swerve first – or accelerate. One way or the other, though, the blockade appears to have succeeded in bringing the regime to its crisis point. As discussions around a potential deal (really a pre-deal) continue, the IRGC has begun to demand an end to the US Navy's complete siege on Iranian ports.
That message has come from the top of the food chain today, including the Nepo Babytollah's supposed attaché: [X links at source article]
The "direct action" threat comes with a promise of "utter ruin" as a result:
Iranian officials have used the negotiations to project confidence that they retain significant military options should diplomacy fail. The Revolutionary Guards said any renewed conflict would spread “far beyond the region,” threatening “crushing blows” and “utter ruin” in places opponents “cannot even imagine.”
The warnings come after a war that saw Iran target US bases, Israeli cities and critical infrastructure in Gulf Arab states, while effectively shutting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and triggering a global energy shock.
Last week, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that any future retaliation would “feature many more surprises,” while Iran’s military threatened to open “new fronts” using “new tools.” Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s top negotiator, said the armed forces had used the ceasefire period to rebuild their capabilities “at the highest level.”
Experts say much of the rhetoric is intended to deter further attacks. But they also warn that Tehran retains significant escalation options should diplomacy collapse.
"Experts say" a lot of things, but this is probably correct. The Iranian regime has not exhibited any restraint in its missile and drone attacks in this conflict or in others. They have aimed at practically every Gulf state, including relatively friendly countries such as Qatar and Oman, targeting their energy production infrastructure. The IRGC has sent volleys of ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv and other places in Israel. At the same time, however, the US and Israel destroyed their military-industrial infrastructure on multiple levels. If the Iranians had more gas in the tank for deterrent strategies and tactics, the IRGC would have used them already.
That's not to say that the Iranian regime can't inflict damage. They still have drones and missiles in their inventories, but they lack the industrial capacity to replace them now. Their blue-water navy is gone, and the US is taking out their littoral navy when the IRGC sends those boats into the Strait of Hormuz to harass shipping. This threat isn't exacty empty, but it's entirely insufficient to deter hostilities if the IRGC won't make a deal. To extend the "chicken" analogy," they're pitting a Peugeot against a Peterbilt. In that kind of matchup, it doesn't matter whether Iran accelerates or not – they're going to lose if they push it to a collision.
Vahidi wants to use these threats to force the US into more concessions. It's the Tehran Two-Step, related closely to the Hamas Hokey Pokey, both of which are based on the concept of the hudna. The dance goes like this: Take one step toward your negotiating partner, and when he takes a step toward you, take two steps back and wait for him to come to you. It only works, though, when your partner wants to dance with you and thinks the dance is good enough. That has been the case with the West when it comes to the Iranian regime for the past 47 years.
Is it good enough for Donald Trump, though? That has been the question since the ceasefire, and both his critics and supporters wonder about it. Trump warned in a Truth Social statement this morning that he won't sign a deal without verifiable compliance by Iran on both the Strait and ending nuclear weapons development. His decision will come soon, Trump declared, but he's not going to let Iran off the hook:
Iran must agree that they will never have a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb. The Hormuz Strait must be immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic, in both directions. All water mines (bombs), if any, will be terminated (we have removed, through detonation, numerous such mines with our great underwater mine sweepers. Iran will complete the immediate removal and/or detonation of any mines that are left, which will not be many!). Ships caught in the Strait due to our amazing and unprecedented Naval Blockade, which will now be lifted, may start the process of “heading home!” Say HELLO to your wives, husbands, parents, and families from me, your favorite President! The enriched material, sometimes referred to as “Nuclear Dust,” which is buried deep underground with virtually collapsed mountains, caused by our powerful B2 Bomber attack 11 months ago, sitting on top of it, will be unearthed by the United States (which, it is agreed, is the only Country, along with China, with the mechanical capability of doing so!), in close coordination and conjunction with the Islamic Republic of Iran, plus the International Atomic Energy Agency, and DESTROYED. No money will be exchanged, until further notice. Other items, of far less importance, have been agreed to. I will be meeting now, in the Situation Room, to make a final determination. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
The part about no money being exchanged is significant, Axios' Barak Ravid notes:
The MOU states that Iran will agree to negotiate on its nuclear program, but does not include specific concessions. ...
- U.S. officials say they have verbal commitments from the Iranians on the nuclear material, but that what matters is what is agreed when the sides get in the room for the formal negotiations.
- Trump claimed "no money will be exchanged, until further notice," referring to Iran's frozen funds in accounts around the world.
Even if Trump accepts this MOU, it may not end the game of chicken. The IRGC violated the current ceasefire within 48 hours by threatening traffic through the Strait, which prompted the full blockade by the US Navy that remains in place today. The Iranians are still demanding control of the Strait, which both the ceasefire and the MOU rejected. The Iranians will do what Hamas and Hezbollah have done for decades – sign the agreement, claim it meant something else, then refuse to comply when it comes time to disarm or withdraw. That's exactly what is happening in Gaza and Lebanon at this very moment.
Maybe Trump will sign the MOU and let Iran violate the terms first as a justification for what comes next. Or perhaps he might just stick with the blockade and let the economic collapse take place over the next several weeks, either forcing the IRGC to surrender on Trump's terms or restart the war and give him the political opening at home and in the Gulf for full-scale strikes on what remains of Iran's energy and transportation infrastructure. The blockade is clearly working to force the arrival of a decision point, and maybe Trump will be inclined to let it ride.
Maybe the Iranian Army will tire of the IRGC and eliminate them to get back to being a prosperous country.
With what?
If the Iranian army would just kill them all, many of those everyday problems would get solved. Currently the IRGC and its handpicked maimed Shiite-head is the only problem.
Bark Bark says the mouse.
Bring?
OH NOES IM SHAKING..seriously can we just bomb their asses already so sick of the nonsense could have been done with them a month ago, all the stalling, its a joke already
Sure, to themselves.
I’m curious about how much more oil is being produced by us, Venezuela and other producers since the blockade and what percentage is that of what used to go through Hormuz?
and in other news, joe biden is sharp as a tack....
Another view.
middleeasteye.net
By MEE staff
Published 11 May 2026
World losing 100 million barrels a week of oil with Hormuz closed, Saudi Aramco chief says
Notes disconnect between oil futures prices and physical reality, and warns about ‘demand rationing’
Pic-—CEO of oil giant Aramco, at Saudi-US investment
forum in Riyadh, on 13 May 2025 (Fayez Nureldine/AFP)
Global oil markets are losing 100 million barrels every week that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, as a result of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the head of Saudi Arabia’s state oil producer said on Monday.
“The energy supply shock that began in the first quarter is the largest the world has ever experienced,” Saudi Aramco chief executive officer Amin Nasser told analysts on an earnings call.
Nasser said the world is coping with the shock through “demand rationing” of available supplies.
“We expect demand rationing to continue as long as supply remains disrupted through the Strait of Hormuz. If normal trade and shipping resume, we anticipate a very robust return to demand growth,” Nasser said.
Energy analysts have already said the collapse of oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz is being felt unevenly, with countries in Asia that are almost totally dependent on the Gulf for their oil, rationing. In the West, particularly in the US, energy prices have risen, but there have been no measures to restrict consumption.
snip
IRGC Warns: We Will Bring ‘Utter Ruin’ If Blockade Continues
TRANSLATION:
IRGC Admits: We Will Be In ‘Utter Ruin’ If Blockade Continues
Why is Trump letting himself get punked? Why is the strait closed? How is it being closed? Why don’t we open it not begging these filth to do it? I don’t remember the US dicking around with Germany and Japan this way. We have lost the ability to impose our will since WW2...Korea, Vietnam, Middle East quagmires. It’s a tough world out there..have to have Mike Tyson killer instinct or perish.
Yup
“The “direct action” threat comes with a promise of “utter ruin” as a result...”
They aren’t wrong here. If the do something stupid, and Trump nods his head, they will be clobbered into utter ruin. They just didn’t identify the right direction of who gets hammered. All we have to do is take out a few ships, a couple of missile and drone bunkers we already know about along with their launching pads, and Kharg Island. They reach that “utter ruin” classification right away. Might take an hour but well spent.
wy69
blah, blah, blah, rivers of blood will run in the streets, blah, blah, blah ... haven’t we heard this empty bluster before?
No, you don't.
Do you remember the price of regime change in Germany and Japan?
Do you think a bit of dicking around is OK rather than a mobilization sufficient to conquer and occupy Iran (as if Congress and the People would even consent to such a thing)?
Remember, if President Trump decides to go to real war here, given the risks to the nation, he has to be prepared to win, regardless of cost.
FDR was prepared to win, regardless of cost. Why?
"the President is hereby authorized and directed to employ the entire naval and military forces of the United States and the resources of the Government to carry on war against the Imperial Government of Japan; and, to bring the conflict to a successful termination, all the resources of the country are hereby pledged by the Congress of the United States
President Trump has no such warrant, and he isn't going to get one from this Congress, either.
Said the Theyranians. LOL.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.