Wall Street legend Gary Shilling warns 'tremendous speculation' is setting up stocks to tumble 30%

Business Insider ^ | October 22, 2025 | The Ron Mohamed

[Whatever Works]

- Forecaster Gary Shilling warned of a heady stock market and a looming recession.

- The veteran economist said the S&P 500 could sink 30% but he doesn't expect an economic catastrophe.

- Shilling brushed off concerns about the dollar, saying no other currency can replace it.

Renowned forecaster Gary Shilling, who predicted the US housing market's collapse in 2008, has told Business Insider that stocks could crash 30% amid "extreme speculation" in financial markets

[Nextrush]

Political motivation in all this? To hurt Trump?

[Nextrush]

Trump manipulates his messaging to talk stocks up.

Do his enemies message to talk stocks down?

[SaveFerris]

[The AI shell game will not end well.]

I just can’t wait until they put AI
in charge of nuclear-tipped ICBMs

And then it becomes self-aware
at 2:14 a.m.....

In a panic, they’ll try to shut it down...

[catnipman]

Grock: “Quantitative analyses peg his broad market forecast accuracy at around 34-38% — worse than random chance (50%) for up-or-down calls”

[Mariner]

There’s a froth developing and 30% is not unreasonable.

[montag813]

Colossus: The Forbin Project did it first.

[SaveFerris]

Such an awesome movie

With Hans Gudegast

Just after he became Eric Braeden

I watched Rat Patrol a bit back then

[Red Badger]

There has been rumors for years that they are going to remake that movie with modern special effects. It would be great!...........

[Red Badger]

Victor Newman!...............

[JesusIsLord]

The S&P 500 lost 57% of its value in the 2007-08 crash. It took 5.5 years for it to recover to its pre-crash level. If we experience a 30% loss as predicted, hopefully we'll see a faster recovery compared to 2007-08.

Here's the problem/challenge I see. If you sell your stocks to avoid a drop in the market, you will pay 15% tax of your gain. If you hold (don't sell) and it takes 2-3 years to recover - will you do better than if you had sold to avoid a recession?

I believe your time-horizon for investing is the key to answering the sell or hold question.

Like many investors, I bailed in the 2000 dot.com recession and the 07-08 recession. Mistake both times !!!!

[Larry Lucido]

“Economists have predicted 5 of the last 2 recessions.”

Yes. And I’ve noted that Biblical prophesy experts have predicted two hundred or so of the last zero raptures.

[Larry Lucido]

"predicted the US housing market's collapse in 2008"

[dennisw]

For sure food inflation is as bad as under Biden Zombie. I see examples every time I am in the grocery store. One sticker shock was a bag of prepped coleslaw vegetables went from 1.69 to 2.09. Simple hamburger meat is climbing all the time.

[ChuckHam]

There’s more upside at this point IMO. I’m going to let it ride for a bit longer and then hold for a while.

[Right_Wing_Madman]

I’m with Gary. Shades of the dot.com bubble. Irrational exuberance.

[crusty old prospector]

Not that Gary.