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Scientists Find “Up to a 40% Chance” Theoretical ‘Planet Nine’ Exists Given the Correct Conditions
The Debrief ^ | May 28, 2025 | Christopher Plain

Posted on 05/29/2025 11:45:00 AM PDT by Red Badger

Scientists modeling planetary system formation scenarios say there could be a 40% chance that a hypothetical ‘Planet Nine’, believed by many to lurk at the outer reaches of the Sun’s orbit, could exist.

The study, conducted by researchers at Rice University, also suggests most of these planets don’t end up captured by their host star’s gravity but instead get ejected from the star’s orbit altogether and spend the rest of their lives roaming the galaxy as “rogue planets.”

“Our simulations show that if the early solar system underwent two specific instability phases—the growth of Uranus and Neptune and the later scattering among gas giants—there is up to a 40% chance that a Planet Nine-like object could have been trapped during that time,” said André Izidoro, assistant professor of Earth, environmental and planetary sciences at Rice and the study’s lead author.

Theoretical Planet Nine One of Many “Pinballs in a Cosmic Arcade”

Most stellar planetary system formation models restrict planets’ orbits within the system’s final version to a specific range. However, several unexplained gravitational readings in our solar system have suggested the presence of an undiscovered ninth planet orbiting well outside of this range. Known as ‘Planet Nine’ by advocates for its existence, the theoretical space body belongs to a broader group called wide-orbit planets that are considered rare, in cosmic terms.

In their new study, the Rice University team modeled several distinct scenarios that could result in a planet orbiting well beyond the planetary formation disc. The same research also evaluated several more scenarios in which such planets are ejected from the system completely.

According to a statement announcing the study’s findings, the researchers ran thousands of computer simulations of various multi-planet systems “embedded in realistic star cluster environments.” To increase the accuracy of the models, the team tried several alternative permutations, including systems that feature a mix of gas and ice giants like our solar system and binary systems featuring planets with two suns like Luke Skywalker’s fictional home, Tatooine, in Star Wars.

After comparing the thousands of models, the team found a recurring pattern. When a newly forming star system experienced certain internal instabilities, planets formed within the disc could be pushed to extreme distances. In some cases, such as the theoretical Planet Nine scenario, the gravitational influence of nearby stars in the modeled cluster helps to stabilize the ejected planet in an orbit between 100 and 10,000 Astronomical Units (AUs). This distance is considered relevant since unusual readings from distant Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) seem to place the likely orbit of Planet Nine somewhere between 250 and 1,000 AU.

“When these gravitational kicks happen at just the right moment, a planet’s orbit becomes decoupled from the inner planetary system,” explained study co-author Nathan Kaib, senior scientist and senior education and communication specialist at the Planetary Science Institute. “This creates a wide-orbit planet — one that’s essentially frozen in place after the cluster disperses.”

“Essentially, we’re watching pinballs in a cosmic arcade,” added André Izidoro, assistant professor of Earth, environmental, and planetary sciences at Rice and the study’s lead author. “When giant planets scatter each other through gravitational interactions, some are flung far away from their star. If the timing and surrounding environment are just right, those planets don’t get ejected, but rather they get trapped in extremely wide orbits.”

Ejected Planets More Likely to Go Rogue

While the study supports proponents of the theoretical Planet Nine, it also found that the majority of planets ejected during a stellar system’s formation would escape their host star’s gravitational pull. These difficult-to-detect space bodies end up wandering the cosmos as rogue planets.

“Not every scattered planet is lucky enough to get trapped,” Kaib explained. “Most end up being flung into interstellar space.”

An image showing the location of 115 potential rogue exoplanets in Upper Scorpius and Ophiucus. These are from a wider batch of orphan worlds, of which 70 the team confirmed as star-less planets, N. Risinger/ESO.

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Still, the Rice researcher noted that understanding what percentage of these planets end up in orbit and how many go rogue “gives us a connection between the planets we see on wide orbits and those we find wandering alone in the galaxy.” Known as “trapping efficiency,” the measurement lets the researchers assign a level of probability that each type of simulated planetary system has a Planet Nine of its own.

Surprisingly, the team found that systems like ours had trapping probabilities ranging between 5 and 10%. As previously noted, they also found that when these types of systems experience certain instabilities during their formation, those chances can increase to as much as 40%. The rate of wide-orbit planets was markedly lower in other system types, including lower efficiency systems like those with only ice giants or circumbinary planets.

“We expect roughly one wide-orbit planet for every thousand stars,” Izidoro said. “That may seem small, but across billions of stars in the galaxy, it adds up.”

Christopher Plain is a Science Fiction and Fantasy novelist and Head Science Writer at The Debrief. Follow and connect with him on X, learn about his books at plainfiction.com, or email him directly at christopher@thedebrief.org.


TOPICS: Astronomy; History; Outdoors; UFO's
KEYWORDS: astronomy; panspermia; science; xplanets
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1 posted on 05/29/2025 11:45:00 AM PDT by Red Badger
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To: MtnClimber; SunkenCiv; rktman; mowowie; SuperLuminal; Cottonbay; telescope115; laplata; ...

Ping!.....................


2 posted on 05/29/2025 11:45:28 AM PDT by Red Badger (Homeless veterans camp in the streets while illegals are put up in 5 Star hotels....................)
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To: Red Badger
Yeah, its called Pluto you idjits. We've know about it forever.


3 posted on 05/29/2025 11:47:18 AM PDT by Magnum44 (...against all enemies, foreign and domestic... )
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To: Red Badger

4 posted on 05/29/2025 11:47:28 AM PDT by Fido969
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To: Fido969

I see a mouse when I look at this Rorschach test.


5 posted on 05/29/2025 11:52:50 AM PDT by Waverunner
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To: Red Badger

I’m waiting for the documentary :

“Planet Nine from Outer Space”


6 posted on 05/29/2025 11:53:33 AM PDT by Disambiguator
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To: Red Badger

The ancient Sumerian civilization knew about this planet, they called it Nibiru.


7 posted on 05/29/2025 11:54:02 AM PDT by philippa
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To: Red Badger

Weren’t we calling Sedna our 9th planet back in 2003?


8 posted on 05/29/2025 11:56:44 AM PDT by Antihero101607
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To: Red Badger

Ruh roh! Not planet 9.


9 posted on 05/29/2025 11:57:40 AM PDT by rktman (Destroy America from within? Check! WTH? Enlisted USN 1967 to end up with this💩? 🚫💉! 🇮🇱👍!)
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To: Red Badger

Could “Planet 9” smash into Pluto to take it out of contention to be reinstated as a planet?


10 posted on 05/29/2025 12:04:59 PM PDT by MtnClimber (For photos of scenery, wildlife and climbing, click on my screen name for my FR home page.)
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To: Red Badger

Someone make sure Godzilla is prepared, because I think that’s where Gidra comes from


11 posted on 05/29/2025 12:05:55 PM PDT by suasponte137
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To: Antihero101607

It’s a trans planet..................


12 posted on 05/29/2025 12:07:22 PM PDT by Red Badger (Homeless veterans camp in the streets while illegals are put up in 5 Star hotels....................)
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To: Red Badger

Is this like Schrodinger’s Planet, where it both exists and doesn’t exist until somebody flies out there and has a look?


13 posted on 05/29/2025 12:08:42 PM PDT by HartleyMBaldwin
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To: Red Badger
We KNOW Pluto is out there but it's not a planet. No one has yet to find this mystery planet that should be as obvious as Pluto which we can see.

They can find exoplanets near stars light year away by virtue of dimming but they can't find a planet on the edge of our solar system.

Maybe it's made of glass and transparent or blacks and made of obsidian, if it exists.

14 posted on 05/29/2025 12:10:09 PM PDT by yesthatjallen
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To: Red Badger

Na it’s just another Dwarf planet


15 posted on 05/29/2025 12:10:44 PM PDT by butlerweave
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To: HartleyMBaldwin

No, it’s Heisenberg’s Planet.

You can know its speed but not its location!...............


16 posted on 05/29/2025 12:13:55 PM PDT by Red Badger (Homeless veterans camp in the streets while illegals are put up in 5 Star hotels....................)
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To: Red Badger

Or vice versa.


17 posted on 05/29/2025 12:14:52 PM PDT by HartleyMBaldwin
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To: yesthatjallen

A planet with a low albedo located beyond Pluto or even the Oort Cloud would be nigh impossible to see. If it ran into something and suddenly gave of a burst of energy and we happened to be looking in that direction at the time we ‘might’ see it .....................


18 posted on 05/29/2025 12:16:15 PM PDT by Red Badger (Homeless veterans camp in the streets while illegals are put up in 5 Star hotels....................)
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To: Red Badger

Going rogue sounds misleading. Makes it seem the planet moves without external forces. More likely if such a planet exists it is on dramatically different orbit, possibly the way Neptune and Uranus are thought to swap proximities from the sun, as their orbits are much more oblong. It’s possible that a planet 9 (if it exists) also has a more pronounced oblong orbit and being so distant from the sun it has stronger gravitational forces from other planets or even other so load systems at times.


19 posted on 05/29/2025 12:57:13 PM PDT by monkeyshine (live and let live is dead)
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To: yesthatjallen

I heard General Zod is trapped there.


20 posted on 05/29/2025 12:59:01 PM PDT by monkeyshine (live and let live is dead)
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