Posted on 03/19/2025 6:46:08 AM PDT by daniel1212
American military strategists are actively gaming U.S. military response scenarios to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2026. The wargames have already found that the U.S. would have to lose more than 900 fighter jets — up to half of its fighter jet fleet — and a large number of U.S. warships to turn back China, a new report revealed Monday. [...]
The basic details of the war game are that China decided to force reunification with Taiwan, [...]
As of Monday, the war gamers had studied the scenario 22 different times. In 18 of the 22 cases, Chinese missiles destroyed “a large part of” the U.S. and Japanese naval fleets and “hundreds of aircraft on the ground,” Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at CSIS, told Bloomberg News [...] in our last game iteration, the United States lost over 900 fighter/attack aircraft in a four-week conflict,” he told Bloomberg News. “That’s about half the Navy and Air Force inventory.”[...]
the scenarios found that the U.S. could still inflict heavy costs on China despite its own devastating losses.
Feb. 13, 2024 China’s Shipyards Are Ready for a Protracted War. America’s Aren’t.
While Chinese shipyards are thriving and primed to build at wartime rates, U.S. shipbuilding is in disarray
China has built the world’s largest coast guard and fishing fleet, and an extensive merchant marine—adding to the nation’s sea power. - https://www.wsj.com/world/china/chinas-shipyards-are-ready-for-a-protracted-war-americas-arent-d6f004dd
“Potential Forms of Russian Support for China in a Protracted War” - https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/SSI-Media/Recent-Publications/Article/4022081/potential-forms-of-russian-support-for-china-in-a-protracted-war/
Related unless the US turns to the Great God: They have set up kings, but not by me: they have made princes, and I knew it not: of their silver and their gold have they made them idols, that they may be cut off. (Hosea 8:4)
I have written to him the great things of my law, but they were counted as a strange thing. (Hosea 8:12)
Israel hath cast off the thing that is good: the enemy shall pursue him. (Hosea 8:3)
For Israel hath forgotten his Maker, and buildeth temples; and Judah hath multiplied fenced cities: but I will send a fire upon his cities, and it shall devour the palaces thereof. (Hosea 8:14) :
Only one way to find out...
While that dam will be breached and 20-million chicoms will die...
‘Hellscape’ envisions a battlefield filled with tens of thousands of unmanned ships, aircraft, and submarines all working in tandem to engage thousands of targets across the vast span of the West Pacific. Admiral John Aquilino, former commander of the Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), originally coined the term in August 2023 at the Emerging Technologies for Defense Conference and Exhibition. The concept was brought up again at the Shangri-la Dialogue by current INDOPACOM commander Admiral Samuel Paparo in an interview with Josh Rogin of the Washington Post.
The concept, at its core, leverages the Department of Defense’s initiative to rapidly procure and field large amounts of unmanned systems, taking critical lessons from the ongoing War in Ukraine that has revolutionized unmanned warfare. Owing to these lessons, Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks announced the Department’s Replicator initiative at the same conference in 2023. Since then, the program has been hard at work developing new capabilities.
‘Hellscape’ and ‘Replicator’ are closely related to each other and many of the capabilities set to be delivered in the Replicator program will have direct applications to the Hellscape concept envisioned by INDOPACOM. Replicator itself has sought out to deliver the exact capabilities that the Hellscape concept refers to.
INDOPACOM’s ‘Hellscape’ concept will feature unmanned systems in every domain. From High-Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) UAVs like the U.S. Navy’s MQ-4C Triton maritime patrol aircraft, down to one-way attack unmanned surface vessels (USVs) like the Muskie M18 developed by MARTAC. In between will be a myriad of different platforms that provide a number of unique capabilities to the overall ‘Hellscape’ concept.
A major concept being pursued that applies to ‘Hellscape’ is the U.S. Navy’s ‘Project Overmatch’; the branch’s contribution to the overall Department of Defense Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2) effort to mesh information flows into one combined picture. EpiSci was recently awarded a follow-on contract to continue their efforts for this program. Project Overmatch, as a concept, fits directly into the ‘Hellscape’ concept of a networked force of asymmetric systems that can coalesce to deliver solid punches despite being made up of small components of an overall networked force.
Most prominent are the various procurements of one-way attack drones like the AeroVironment Switchblade 600 or UVison Hero-120. The U.S. Marine Corps are specifically focused on loitering munitions and one-way attack drones and have issued contracts in 2021 and 2024 for integration and procurement of various unmanned systems. This year, UVision announced that the Hero-120 would be produced in the U.S.–likely due to demand for the system.
A mix of these systems, alongside countless other classified capabilities and unmentioned procurement efforts highlight the drive to make ‘Hellscape’ a reality. The U.S. Marine Corps unveiled a concept last year of Hero-120 loitering munitions installed on a Long-Range Unmanned Surface Vessel (LRUSV), showcasing just what is possible when these systems are integrated together. The LRUSV, based on the U.S. Navy’s ’40PB’ built by Metal Shark, is yet another example of how ‘Hellscape’ is already becoming a reality.
Si vis pacem para bellum.
I fully expect in the future Taiwan to re-unify, when they rightfully take back the Mainland, to institute a Republic.
Without any full-scale war.
What a load of Bull. Though hopefully the Generals running the show won’t be the same fools who destroyed the U.S. military with their failed Afghanistan withdrawal.
It’s not going to be easy defeating the Chinese hoard, but it can be done with the right equipment and the right military leadership.
Sounds like a one-side wargame scenario. Most the US planes were still on the ground and the US ships were all within striking distance for the Chinese.
I read somewhere that a nation with great manufacturing power was able to win this really big war with logistics sometime in the middle of the last century.
Only is someone has the chutzpah to issue the order.
Bold talk from Taiwan, meant as a deterrent. No "western" countries have the guts for what would be labelled a "war crime".
Crossing 100 miles of open ocean is not an easy task. China may very well be able to inflict much damage and possibly destroy Taiwan, but what will they lose and in the end what have they gained?
BTW a successful invasion requires robust resupply, not an easy task.
We only had to get supplies across the channel with very little resistance from the Germans, and those supply lines were stretched almost to the breaking point, and in some instances did effect operations.
Egos are an amazing thing
The US MIC thinks every problem is a nail that requires the hammer of the military to solve it.
China has been waging war against the US for years, stealing our technology or outright buying from traitors like the Clintons.
China has engaged in a type of opium war against them like the British did in Sanghi years ago.
I think in a conventional military type of war with China, the US population has no stomach for that, and it would be a disaster. The first time a US Aircraft Carrier went to the bottom of the ocean with 5000 sailors dead, the US public would want no part of that.
You need to make sure Taiwan has everything it needs to make any invasion by China as costly as possible, then you arm every willing Taiwan citizen with a rifle making Chinese soldiers really nervous about moving around in the country.
I think then you use non-military means to foster unrest inside of China, hoping for some type of revolution.
Cut China off from our financial markets, a total economic embargo on China in the USA, nationalize any of their assets inside the country.
All I’m saying is we need to think outside of the box to take on China and a conventional military solution would be very costly and likely not have the public’s support over an Island they can’t find on a map.
“Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God! I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me liberty or give me death!”
Quote: The unofficial simulations are being held by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington D.C.-based security and foreign policy think tank. The war games are ongoing and will run through September, with retired U.S. generals, admirals and former Pentagon officials gaming out the still-hypothetical fight with China over Taiwan.
Did the “war gamers” include in their scenarios all of the nukes in IUS subs being launched on all major cities in China...or not? If not, why not???
“...but what will they lose and in the end what have they gained?”
“They” is the senior leadership of the CCP. Their calculation will be based on how much war might enhance their hold on China. Keeping and increasing power is a “gain” for them. A loss for the country.
So “gaining” a burned out husk of Taiwan may be a huge victory for them.
And that’s what I meant by ego.
China is dependent on exports and imports of energy. A war stops most of that so I guess better to rule in hell than serve in heaven
Real question is, are the people actually clamoring for a war to retake a tiny land mass and if they don’t the current power group will be removed?
Been almost 80 years and mainland China seems to have done “okay”, perhaps this is the distraction dictators often use to divert attention from their own failures.
Depending on how far the “allies” go , just removing a few dams will cause almost irreversible damage
FAFO seems to be the order of the day😎
I have a question for CVN experts only.
In WW II, Japan had to sink the Yorktown or the Lexington to take them out of action, because combat ops could run off of an analog deck using pilot eyeballs.
A lot of ink has been spilled about how hard it would be to sink a Nimitz or Ford class carrier. That’s not really the issue, though.
Given the extensive electronics and digital data/effects involved in launching and recovering current carrier air wings - how much damage to things like antenna arrays, landing aids, or even stand off jamming/electronic interference would be needed to take the fighter ops out of action?
I mean, the carriers could sail on, unharmed, as long as they couldn’t launch and recover aircraft.
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