With Assad’s Fall, Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ Unravels

The New York Times ^ | Dec. 8, 2024, 11:41 a.m. ET | Alissa J. Rubin

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Over the past four decades, Iran devoted its best military minds, billions of dollars and sophisticated weapons to a grand project — countering U.S. and Israeli power in the Middle East through what it called the “axis of resistance.”

The alliance, made up of like-minded armed groups or governments in five Middle Eastern countries, allowed Iran to project power as far west as the Mediterranean and south to the Arabian Sea.

But in a breathtakingly short time, it has largely unraveled.

Syrian rebel groups ousted the country’s longtime dictator, Bashar al-Assad, in less than two weeks as the government’s military forces put up little resistance. The Lebanese militant and political group Hezbollah and the Palestinian faction Hamas in Gaza are both weakened by more than a year of warfare with Israel.

Still intact are the Iran-linked Iraqi militias and the Houthi militia in Yemen, but they are more peripheral players in the alliance. And even if Iran were intent on rebuilding that alliance, it would likely take years to return to its former strength.

“The most significant regional development is this Iranian strategic loss,” Robert Ford, a former U.S. ambassador to Syria and a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, a Washington-based think tank, said of the collective defeats suffered by Iran’s allies.

Syria under Mr. al-Assad was critical to the alliance because it provided a land corridor for Iran to supply weapons and money to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel sought to sever this pipeline. Defending it was just as important to Iran.

With the ouster of Mr. al-Assad this weekend and the future leadership of Syria now in question, it is not clear whether Iran can retain this strategic route.

[dfwgator]

We are now seeing the Rise of Turkey.

[blueunicorn6]

I’m glad Assad is gone, but I’m not sure things will be better.

[suasponte137]

I haven’t been paying much attention to this, I’m too focused on the trump and the incoming administration. With that said, is the Mossad pulling the strings on this coup, or is it more naturally occurring?I

[DeplorablePaul]

With Assad’s Fall, Obama’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ Unravels

There fixed it. Barack Hussein Obama is having a bad month.

[fso301]

With that said, is the Mossad pulling the strings on this coup, or is it more naturally occurring?I

Look to a murky combination of Turkey, America and NATO.

[ModelBreaker]

“We are now seeing the Rise of Turkey.”

That has been my suspicion since the first reports from Aleppo.

Many do not know the long history of animosity between Turkey/Ottomans and Russia. Russia holding Crimea sticks in Turkey’s throat badly. Russia holding almost the entire north shore of the Black Sea sticks in Turkey’s throat badly. And the same for Russian aggression in the Caucasus.

This move in Syria eliminated a substantial Russian presence on Turkey’s southern front at almost no cost to Turkey. Next step, the Caucasus.

[Arlis]

PERFECT TIME for Iranians to take back their country from the mullahs and for Lebanon to take back their country from the Islamists....

[outofsalt]

The “axis of resistance” is Antifa, the teacher’s union and liberals.

[Uncle Miltie]

Is there any evidence the U.S. or Israel directly assisted ISIS and Turkey in their overthrow of Assad?

[rdcbn1]

Exactly - and Turkey is far more capable than Iran and a lot more dangerous for Israel.

[rxh4n1]

***I’m glad Assad is gone, but I’m not sure things will be better.***

“Syria under Mr. al-Assad was critical to the alliance because it provided a land corridor for Iran to supply weapons and money to Hezbollah in Lebanon.”

I’m with you. I’m not so sure things will be better. Iran still has a lot of money and the new gang hates Israel too. i think they’ll help Hezbollah now.

[fso301]

Is there any evidence the U.S. or Israel directly assisted ISIS and Turkey in their overthrow of Assad?

None that I am aware of but this suddenly happened all by itself about as much as hussein's Arab Spring happened organically.

One can glean much from things the media chooses not to mention. In this case, the US has forces in Syria.

[Uncle Miltie]

So “No News” means “U.S. Guilty”?

[fso301]

So “No News” means “U.S. Guilty”?

I expect that to be the case. After all, U.S. forces haven't been fighting in Syria to prop up Assad.

[fso301]

So “No News” means “U.S. Guilty”?

Yes but now we have confirmation from the horses mouth.

https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2024/12/08/biden-claims-credit-for-toppling-assad/

[Uncle Miltie]

In my opinion, Joe didn’t make Assad fall, hamass did.

Follow me here:

1) hamass invades Israel October 7, 2023.
2) Israel fights back, starting October 7, 2023.
3) hezbollah initiates near daily rocket attacks on Northern Israel in explicit support of hamass, unwilling to stop until there is a “ceasefire” (read: Israeli loss) in gaza.
4) 60,000 Israelis become internal refugees because they can’t live under daily risk of rockets.
5) Israel fights back, especially in September with pager bombs, radio bombs, JDAMs, bunker busters, etc., decimating hezbollah leadership, munitions, rockets, launchers, personnel, morale, etc.
6) ISIS / Turkey invade Syria from the North, because Syria last time in civil war relied on hezbollah retreating to Syria to prop up the regime. However, this time, hezbollah could not respond, having been more than decimated by Israel.

Assad fell, in large part, because Israel took out hezbollah, the essential prop to the regime, without which Assad fell. He survived last time (barely) with huge help from hezbollah.

Biden thinks he’s freaking g-d, but he admits in his statement doing not much at all, and nothing different. What was different was NO POSSIBLE RESPONSE from hezbollah.

hamass’s miscalculation made Israel make this happen.

It may not turn out so well for Israel in the long run, ISIS + Turkey being potentially worse than hezbollah + Iran.

We’ll see.

[Uncle Miltie]

3) hezbollah initiates near daily rocket attacks on Northern Israel in explicit support of hamass

October 8, 2023!

[MinorityRepublican]

This move in Syria eliminated a substantial Russian presence on Turkey’s southern front at almost no cost to Turkey. Next step, the Caucasus.

Putin needs to play the board game "Risk". He's lousy at his attempts to dominate the world.

[fso301]

hamass’s miscalculation made Israel make this happen.

I can partially agree. Israel made Assad (and Iran) look weak in a part of the world where only power is respected.

I don't believe these different groups spontaneously got together a couple of weeks ago and decided to launch a major attack.