Posted on 10/28/2024 5:41:50 PM PDT by DallasBiff
For weeks before the presidential election, the gurus of public opinion polling were nearly unanimous in their findings. In survey after survey, they agreed that the coming choice between President Jimmy Carter and Challenger Ronald Reagan was “too close to call.” A few points at most, they said, separated the two major contenders.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearhistory.com ...
I miss the days when you had to produce tables like that on a typewriter. I can still remember setting up those margins and tabs.
I think both parties want the press to report that the election is 50/50, or a “dead heat”, or “too close to call”. I think everyone on our side needs to treat it that way, and get out and vote. My wife and I did our part to make America great again. Did you?
I though very highly of Pat Caddell.
You are correct. The demographics now are much different than they were back then—and certainly NOT for the better!
Read my tag line FRiend.
its not the polls that worry me...its the trend the country seems to be taking. The House is full of straight up left wing female psychos...worse than the pyscho men. The Senate also...what they did during Kavanuaghs SC hearing is still shocking. Some of these elected dem Governors are scary. Trannys openly serving in the White House. Elected officials letting cities burn in riots...if Trump doesn’t beat her by at least 10-12 points. I dunno, all very discouraging.
Pearl clutchers...you call folks names like dems do when they fear a diagreement :)
No genius, demographics are Insanetly different.
But it seems like a rational discussion with you would be a waste of time.
Trump can win up to 330 EVs. Possible.
But the 49 state days are gone.
And I wont waste time explaining why to you
Caddell appeared on Fox on occasion in recent years and struck me as me as a straight shooter, unlike most Democrats these days. RIP, Pat.
.......I already voted by mail for Trump/Vance in 2024. Hope they win......
Same here!
But I’ll keep my tagline!
Polls are in business to make money and the perception of a tight race generates more money.
I have not ever been polled. Ever!! Have you? Yes, they do know who they can count on to deliver the numbers they need.
I remember how, the night before the election, Carter was still making campaign stops. On his last one, outdoors, as he gave his last “get out the vote” harangue, he started to break. The polling done for the presidential nominees is on the nose, not like this published rubbish. Carter and Reagan already knew it wasn’t close.
The most trusted poll in America at the time was Gallup.
Even after the last debate they generated a poll showing a one point Reagan lead.
They lied.
There is no other way to spin it.
The parallels with this year suggest that Trump will also get the support of late deciders. Moreover, like Reagan, Trump is an exceptionally good salesman with a talent for closing deals. To adapt the famous movie line, the oval office is for closers.
bttt
In 1980, I remember the visceral hatred of Ronald Reagan by my teachers when I was in high school. They disparaged him as an cowboy actor, a fool, and that he would be a huge disaster for America if elected. The media was pushing the same narrative.
1984 was almost a sweep by Reagan. I remember he only lost Minnesota and DC.
Lying to a pollster is one of the most satisfying things to do in life.
I don’t think it’s going to be 1980, but I do expect Trump to win, there has never been a realisticallly possible path to 270 for the Dems.
Right now I’d say Trump’s up about 3ish +/- nationally with the wind at his back.
I expect he 2016 map more or less with a few additional states.
If momentum continues Trump certainly can wind up 5+/- and if he ends up there expect more than a few additional states.
Thanks so much!
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