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Why 1980 Polls Missed Landslide
Real Clear History ^ | 11/4/16 | Massimo Calabresi,

Posted on 10/28/2024 5:41:50 PM PDT by DallasBiff

For weeks before the presidential election, the gurus of public opinion polling were nearly unanimous in their findings. In survey after survey, they agreed that the coming choice between President Jimmy Carter and Challenger Ronald Reagan was “too close to call.” A few points at most, they said, separated the two major contenders.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearhistory.com ...


TOPICS: Chit/Chat; History
KEYWORDS: 1980; carter; landslide; reagan; reagan1984
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Just me but 2024 reminds me of 1980. I know the pearl clutchers will pounce and flame away.
1 posted on 10/28/2024 5:41:50 PM PDT by DallasBiff
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To: DallasBiff

I agree. I think everything is falling apart for the Democrats.


2 posted on 10/28/2024 5:44:10 PM PDT by ClearCase_guy (My decisions about people are based almost entirely on skin color. I learned this from Democrats.)
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To: DallasBiff

It’s not ‘pearl clutching’ to note that the voting technology we use now is very different from what we used in 1980.

I remain optimistic about Trump’s chances; but there are lots of ways to cheat now than there were in 1980.


3 posted on 10/28/2024 5:52:42 PM PDT by Jamestown1630 ("A Republic, if you can keep it.")
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To: Jamestown1630

JFK’s cheating was actually brilliant in both Illinois and Texas.

If you go back to the election of 1876 the record high turnout was totally due to massive cheating on both sides.

Cheating in elections is as American as apple pie.


4 posted on 10/28/2024 5:55:49 PM PDT by cgbg ("Our democracy" = Their Kleptocracy)
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To: DallasBiff

Your excerpt linked to a longer teaser, which then linked to the actual article.


5 posted on 10/28/2024 5:57:01 PM PDT by ansel12 ((NATO warrior under Reagan, and RA under Nixon, bemoaning the pro-Russians from Vietnam to Ukraine.))
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To: cgbg

Well, I guess we’re doomed, then.

There’s no way we can win, so I wonder why we’re still talking about it.

/s


6 posted on 10/28/2024 5:57:21 PM PDT by Jamestown1630 ("A Republic, if you can keep it.")
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To: Jamestown1630

My point is just that cheating has always been there to a greater or lesser extent.

It has limited utility in special cases—such as the crazy high mail in volume of the 2020 election.

The number of mail in ballots this year is much much lower and is tracked by all states.

Will there be some cheating this year?

Yes.

Will it determine the outcome this year?

Imho no.


7 posted on 10/28/2024 6:00:09 PM PDT by cgbg ("Our democracy" = Their Kleptocracy)
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To: DallasBiff

According to what I’ve read, the 1980 race was close, but over the weekend before the Tuesday election, Carter’s top pollster Pat Caddell gathered data showing a massive late swing toward Reagan. Caddell informed Carter on that Sunday night he was going to lose decisively to Reagan.


8 posted on 10/28/2024 6:02:40 PM PDT by Dan in Wichita
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To: DallasBiff
America is a VERY different country than 1980

The WWII gen that is still around is less than 1% of the population

...not pearl clutching, just being realistic.

Thinking people like Johnny Carson/many others in entertainment would get fired with today's sensitive woke society.

9 posted on 10/28/2024 6:06:01 PM PDT by RckyRaCoCo (Time to throw them out of the Temple...again)
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To: DallasBiff

I’m thinking one of two outcomes: 2016 or 2020.


10 posted on 10/28/2024 6:07:24 PM PDT by CatOwner (Don't expect anyone, even conservatives, to have your back when the SHTF in 2021 and beyond.)
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To: DallasBiff

I want to be optimistic about 2024. But the cheating worries me.


11 posted on 10/28/2024 6:08:30 PM PDT by thirdgradeteacher
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To: DallasBiff
This story is ahistorical. Polls showed Reagan pulling ahead, way ahead after the last debate, with multiple polls showing him up 10+.
12 posted on 10/28/2024 6:14:43 PM PDT by Wayne07
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To: DallasBiff
The premise is wrong: the LAAP-dog media didn't miss the landslide in 1980, they were just as deceitful back then as they are today.

In 1980, the Democrat narrative was that Reagan was conspiring with Iran to have them keep the hostages until Reagan won the election, and then Iran would release them once Reagan became President.

It was a desperate ploy by Democrats and supported by the LAAP-dog media to paint Reagan as a puppet of Khomeini just like they tried to paint Trump as a puppet of Putin.

-PJ

13 posted on 10/28/2024 6:18:07 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ( * LAAP = Left-wing Activist Agitprop Press (formerly known as the MSM))
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To: Wayne07

Notice some of the silly polls that had the race close to even in the Reagan race as late as a couple of weeks before the election.

More got it wrong than right during that period.

Imho the lefty media pollsters were playing their dirty games even back then.

The notion that millions of voters changed their mind at the last minute was absurd.

Both Carter and Reagan were very well known quantities by almost every voter months before the election.


14 posted on 10/28/2024 6:25:01 PM PDT by cgbg ("Our democracy" = Their Kleptocracy)
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To: thirdgradeteacher

“But the cheating worries me.”

Your concern is legitimate. None of the cheaters have been held accountable for their actions. There’s no incentive for them to stop.

Voting harder may work in this election but it won’t work in future elections.


15 posted on 10/28/2024 6:25:10 PM PDT by Mr. N. Wolfe
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To: Political Junkie Too

“In 1980, the Democrat narrative was that Reagan was conspiring with Iran to have them keep the hostages until Reagan won the election, and then Iran would release them once Reagan became President.”

I’m sorry, isn’t that exactly what happened? Please reply, because I have a lot of confusion in my life right now and I don’t need to be confused about this!

I understand Regan was not conspiring with Iran, LOL.


16 posted on 10/28/2024 6:27:59 PM PDT by jocon307
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To: thirdgradeteacher

“I want to be optimistic about 2024. But the cheating worries me.”

Me and hubby too. Plus this is so critical, esp. the inflation stuff. Said to hubby the other day: if I was the kind of person who throws up when they are nervous I’d be puking from dawn to dusk!


17 posted on 10/28/2024 6:29:20 PM PDT by jocon307
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To: cgbg

The final debate was Oct 28th 1980 - 24 years ago today! It was the “There you go again” debate, just 7 days before the election. It is a reasonable read of history that people broke late for Reagan, not that the polls were fixed.


18 posted on 10/28/2024 6:31:03 PM PDT by Wayne07
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To: Wayne07

The “tell” that there was no “late break” was that some early polls (before the debate) had Reagan way ahead.

Look at the wild variation between polls in October.


19 posted on 10/28/2024 6:33:14 PM PDT by cgbg ("Our democracy" = Their Kleptocracy)
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To: jocon307
The Iranians did release the hostages after Reagan became President, but it wasn't because Reagan negotiated a deal with Khomeini to keep the hostages until Carter lost. Reagan wouldn't do that.

The Iranians knew that Reagan would retaliate if they kept the hostages any longer; plus the Iranians were making it personal because Carter gave aid and comfort to the Shah after he fled Iran. For that alone, Iran wanted to keep the hostages until Carter was driven from office.

-PJ

20 posted on 10/28/2024 6:40:55 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ( * LAAP = Left-wing Activist Agitprop Press (formerly known as the MSM))
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