Why Is Trump Gaining With Black and Hispanic Voters?

The New York Times ^ | Oct. 13, 2024 Updated 8:58 a.m. ET | Nate Cohn

[E. Pluribus Unum]

In 2016, Donald J. Trump became the Republican nominee and ultimately won the presidency after calling many Mexican immigrants rapists and falsely claiming that Barack Obama was not born in the United States.

Eight years later, the polls suggest that he might well return to the White House by faring better among Black and Hispanic voters combined than any Republican presidential nominee since the enactment of the Civil Rights Act in 1964.

How is this possible? It’s a question I get often, and the latest New York Times/Siena College polls of Black and Hispanic voters nationwide represent our best effort at answering it.

Like our other surveys this cycle, the polls find Mr. Trump faring unusually well for a Republican among Black and Hispanic voters. Overall, Kamala Harris is ahead, 78 percent to 15 percent, among Black voters, and she’s leading, 56-37, among Hispanic voters.

Almost any way we can measure it, Mr. Trump is running as well or better among Black and Hispanic voters as any Republican in recent memory. In 2020, Joe Biden’s Black support was 92 percent among major-party voters; his Hispanic support was 63 percent, according to Times estimates.

The poll offers plenty of insight into Mr. Trump’s strengths and Ms. Harris’s weaknesses, but it does not offer a simple, definitive answer. This may be unsatisfying, but it should not be surprising. After all, analysts are still debating whether Mr. Trump’s strength among white working-class voters is attributable to the economy, racism, ideology, sexism, Hillary Clinton’s liabilities or one of countless other theories. There still isn’t a definitive answer, even with the benefit of the final results and almost a decade of research.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

...analysts are still debating whether Mr. Trump’s strength among white working-class voters is attributable to the economy, racism, ideology, sexism, Hillary Clinton’s liabilities or one of countless other theories.

The NYT sure does hate "working-class" people.

[Mr. K]

Because they’re sick of being lied to every four years by the democrat party?

The party of illegal immigrants and trans people?

[Mr. Jeeves]

There still isn’t a definitive answer, even with the benefit of the final results and almost a decade of research.

Just because they can't fit the answer into their flawed worldview does not mean there is no answer. :)

[Signalman]

Because black, Hispanic, Asian and white voters realize that Harris a fraud, who is completely unqualified to be President and Commander-In-Chief.

[reasonisfaith]

Because the scales are falling from their eyes.

[No name given]

Just like the WaPo.

[No name given]

And the party of slavery, Trail of Tears, Indian wars, Jim Crow, the kkk and Japanese internment camps.

[MinorityRepublican]

The Democratic Party used to represent the working class. And you had Country Club folks (like George W. Bush) in the Republican Party.

But now the Democratic Party is for the Liberal Elite who happens to be wealthy. Ideally, they want 90% of their voters to be on the dole so they'll be dependent on the state.

So if you're a middle class person and you're not dependent on the government, by default you're a Republican. Many Hispanics and some black men are finding that out now.

[SaxxonWoods]

Blacks have realized Dems are still trying to keep them on a plantation, just a more modern one.

[MinorityRepublican]

Blacks have realized Dems are still trying to keep them on a plantation, just a more modern one.

Only Black men are trying to escape. Which is why the Dems had to call their o****eer aka former President Obama to bring them back in.

[DIRTYSECRET]

Maybe we’re finally true about who we are and they’re true about who they are.

[In_Iowa_not_from]

The Democrat party is now the party of inherited and windfall wealth. They live off the sweat and toil of their ancestors, parents, and ex-husbands.

[laplata]

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ui=2&ik=dd7417bfb4&attid=0.1&permmsgid=msg-a:r4639208095636616696&th=192867d92c1494c9&view=fimg&fur=ip&sz=s0-l75-ft&attbid=ANGjdJ_bKjYGWdPL8vHXAFgX3NsOChBPWRiPMg9GJo_7ZqqKa6Nj9ul8A0Mizeqrv-GS8KZf3luptrzxC0Q721Zc5Ol8A8Ogoj8zWDjoFvXjiVfc5pe4kB-fEC0nZGc&disp=emb&realattid=ii_m27qkold0

[MinorityRepublican]

The Democrat party is now the party of inherited and windfall wealth. They live off the sweat and toil of their ancestors, parents, and ex-husbands.

Gavin Newsom is going to try to realign the Democratic Party in 2028 to reach out to the Middle Class. Assuming Trump is able to win this time.

[j.havenfarm]

Tired of the democrats trying to convince them that it’s ok, even desirable, to be ruled by flamboyant goofballs?

[Ann Archy]

Because he
s NOT A STUPID GIGGLING GIRL!

[Owen]

Trump has not attracted those minorities by supporting some policy or other that they are focused on.

He has attracted them via populism.

THIS IS NOT AN ELECTION ABOUT POLICY. No one has an answer for inflation. There is no answer. Immigration? Yes, he has an answer, but is that answer what has pried 10% of Black voters to him?

No.

It’s about his Drain the Swamp focus, and the Swamp is both parties. It is about crushing elites and political careerists. Rejection of the college degree being somehow definitive of anything (excluding medicine or STEM). All those degrees in sociology that led to gov’t jobs counseling people about whatever . . . that crap is being voted against.

That is where the black male vote is coming from. The guys who resurface roads. Who install new storm drains in neighborhoods. Fix the plumbing. DRIVE TRUCKS.

They don’t care one whit about tax and spend policy. They want an end to elitism.

[Betty Jane]

Democrats are also the party of those who receive government largesse, either through entitlement benefits or government jobs.

[cuban leaf]

Fewer and fewer people “hate” Trump, and Trump hatred is the strongest arrow in Kam’s quiver.

I expect this to be the biggest electoral slaughter in the last century or maybe even more. If they don’t bother to cheat, this will be one for the history books.

[2nd Amendment]

Some know what it’s like to be targeted by the justice system.