Posted on 10/11/2024 3:32:49 PM PDT by Libloather
The dramatic rise in early voting has led many to think the election might be effectively over days or weeks before Election Day. The data thus far show that won’t be true — and the numbers aren’t comforting for Democrats.
Early voting is nowhere near what some people estimated: 4.2 million Americans have already cast their ballots, per John Couvillon, a Republican political strategist who provides daily updates on early and mail voting.
That sounds like a lot, but it’s a pittance compared with the 158.6 million votes ultimately cast in 2020.
More important, it’s significantly less than this point in 2020: Early voting is down 45%, Couvillon’s numbers show.
The number of early votes will rise substantially in the next two weeks as some states send out their mail ballots and others open in-person early-voting centers. But the share of votes cast early is still likely to be much lower even after this happens.
Virginia, for example, has had in-person early voting since late September. People are coming out, as 459,000 have voted in person as of Oct. 10.
That is down roughly 4%, however, from the same point in 2020.
The bigger news is the significant decline in requests for mail ballots. Those are down by 58% from 2020 in states that don’t send mail ballots to all voters.
The drop is especially steep in the swing states of Georgia and North Carolina, with declines of 84% and 75% respectively.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
No way they can repeat that this time.
They just don’t get it. 2024 isn’t 2020. Because of Covid, they were able to use a lot of tricks in their bag to get the results they wanted. We’re not the same ppl we were 4 yrs ago.
The bigger news is the significant decline in “requests for mail ballots;”
down by 58% from 2020 in states that don’t send mail ballots to all voters.
The drop is especially steep in the swing states of Georgia and
North Carolina, with declines of 84% and 75% respectively.
Wife and I just got back from early voting in New Mexico. Lots of people were early voting, and am glad we did as the worker had trouble with the computer and had to input my information twice before it all went in ok. What concerned me was no ID needed. If you know the name, address, and birthdate they print the ballot with only your signature. I assume they can see an original registration signature but doubt they are trained and capable of verifying authenticity.
FTA-——It’s impossible to know what these statistics mean. It’s also impossible to spin them into good news for Harris. It is possible to say what this means to both candidates: There’s still plenty of time to influence the race with campaign stops, messages and tactics.
More than 96% of likely voters have not yet cast their vote. By the end of next week, that share is not likely to have dropped below 85%.
The race may not come down to Election Day, but tens of millions of people are clearly waiting until the campaign’s final days to vote. Which campaign grasps that simple fact most thoroughly likely has a tiny but real edge.
I voted last week. In person.
Most of those sending mail in ballots are the ones you still see walking around wearing masks..the rest go vote in person, early, but in person..besides, Trump and everyone else in the GOP has been telling everyone to go vote early, bring your friends, your family, your cats, and dogs, bring EVERYONE to vote
It just started in some states. TN starts 10/16
Are you in Bernalillo County? They always manage to screw something up during elections. I remember the incident where a truck carrying voting machines “lost” a few when they fell out the open back door on I-40. Whoops! How did THAT happen?
Sandoval county. Early voting now only at County building, more options on the 18th I think, but I figured if I vote at the Board of Elections headquarters it will be harder to lose.
The inflated "vote" totals in 2020 occured within 45-60 miles of a central point in large blue counties in most every state.
“I assume they can see an original registration signature but doubt they are trained and capable of verifying authenticity.”
Signatures can take days by experts, but are authenticated by machine in Florida elections.
Or, in my mail-in vote for Trump, was INvalidated by machine.
“The drop is especially steep in the swing states of Georgia and North Carolina, with declines of 84% and 75% respectively.”
In Georgia, new laws in 2021 made it much more difficult to request a mail-in ballot. 2022 was an off-year election, but mail-in ballots in the November General Election were down about 80% over 2020, a big decline. Dems in GA have been forced to go back to relying on turn-out for in-person voting, ballot harvesting and middle of the night dumps into drop boxes are not working in GA.
How are those 110 and 120% precincts doing?
Please don't take this the wrong way, but I don't see any hope for you.
I’m holding my vote until as close as possible to the election.
In Georgia, it’s because people are keenly aware of Raffensperger’s dirty tricks in 2020 wrt that consent decree with Democrats to NOT compare mail in signature ballots with registrations. He’s not gonna get away with it this time.
Good to hear.
I voted by email in SC. I’m out of the country.
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