Posted on 09/05/2024 5:48:24 AM PDT by Red Badger
Historian Allan Lichtman has finally revealed his prediction for the 2024 election winner, after determining that Kamala Harris has met the critical objectives for victory.
The American University professor, 77, has fashioned his own election model that has correctly forecast every presidential winner since 1984.
He relies on an unorthodox system - ignoring the polls and pundits - based on what he calls '13 keys' to the White House, a model he developed in 1981 alongside his geophysicist friend Vladimir Keilis-Borok.
The model is based on 120 years of presidential election outcomes and even enabled Allan to call Trump's unexpected 2016 victory a month before the election.
He then used his tactic to correctly predict the outcome in the 2020 elections.
Explaining the mysterious 13 keys to the New York Times, Allan said: 'They are 13 big picture, true-false questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House party.
The 13 keys include: Midterm gains, incumbency, primary contest, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, White House scandal, incumbent charisma, challenger charisma, foreign policy failure, and foreign policy success.
Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate needs to lose six of them in order to be declared a loser under the model.
As of last month, she was down only three: having a Party Mandate/Midterm gains, Incumbency, and Incumbent Charisma.'
Two other keys were looking 'shaky' weeks ago: foreign policy and social unrest.
But Allan explained that only two of the 13 keys have anything to do with candidates - incumbent and challenger charisma.
Allan said the White House party gained House seats between midterm elections - stating the Democrats did better than expected in 2022 despite them still losing House seats - meaning the Midterm gains key is false.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...
Needed that!
Alan Lichtman! is very annoying and frequently on TV, as they like his schtik.
“Lichtman created the Keys to the White House model with Soviet seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Lichtman
What a fool. She has no "Charisma." She comes across as an obnoxious idiot who cackles when seriousness is called for.
I cannot stand to listen to that ignorant bitch, and I very much doubt anyone else likes her nails on a chalkboard style of speaking.
More like The Whore of Babble on and on and on.....
They already tried killing him once. Trying it again and succeeding may very well not have the effect they want. It may end up with all of them fleeing for their lives.
At this point, the only way they stop him is to kill him. He's gonna beat that stupid ignorant bitch like someone clubbing a baby seal.
She's toast. Not even cheating will be enough to win this time.
“She’s toast. Not even cheating will be enough to win this time.”
I can’t express how much I hope you’re right.
That's a good one!
I agree. But whose blood?
He then used his tactic to correctly predict the outcome in the 2020 elections.
= = =
So he accounts for cheating?
Probably has ‘connections’......................
I AGREE! In the meantime, we'll have to endure the "pearl clutchers" and their fearful prognostications!
Sounds VERY ACCURATE to me. They'd have to MANUFACTURE MORE VOTES than there are VOTERS for Harris to win.
almost
And how does one address issues like vote fraud, systemic media bias, fraudulent economic data, candidate and campaign quality, or unexpected events? In the last year, Lichtman has gone from "Biden can't lose" to "Harris can't lose." Oops. All it took for Trump to defeat Biden was one debate. Perhaps history will repeat itself when Harris and Trump debate.
Finally, I do not like Lichtman. I am simply not inclined to regard a smug, smarmy liberal Democrat professor with a bad toupee as an unimpeachable and always right election forecaster. As a now old GOP political hack with many election campaigns behind me, I look to four things in election forecasting: candidate quality and experience; campaign strength and skill; public sentiment as measured by reliable polls; and events with political impact.
This year, I see Trump winning if the election is not upended by events and stolen as it was in 2020.
Did this guy pick Biden in 2020? I mean Biden actually lost….. or does he take into account fraud?
That name has been predicted!
The Left vilifies anyone who owns weapons of any kind. That is because of what they have in mind for us. Enslavement with no path out.
The number of firearms owned by citizens in the USA is enormous. The past 20 years the number has seen a huge increase in sales. The public knows something is wrong with where we are going. They are right to be concerned.
States where Communist Democrats and Globalists are not in control, will refuse to surrender even a small number.
Blue States in some cities have almost no weapons already. But many people have recently fled those cities in large numbers.
Here in Texas, confiscation is NOT going to happen. Many other places are the same. They will resist subjection.
Lichtman is NeverTrump IIRC.
Left out...
Billions in free advertising and advocation by the media for democrats.
Electronic cheat machines
Illegal alien and non citizen voting
Those are huge for democrats
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.