Posted on 07/30/2024 6:56:58 AM PDT by Phoenix8
NEW: Forecaster who has predicted almost every election since 1984, says Kamala Harris will likely win the election in November.
Allan Lichtman, who correctly predicted Trump would win in 2016 & Biden in 2020, says his forecasts point to a Harris win.
Lichtman uses '13 keys' to make his predictions:
The "keys" are: – party mandate – contest – incumbency – third party – short-term economy – long-term economy – policy change, – social unrest – scandal – foreign/military failure – foreign/military success – incumbent charisma – challenger charisma
As of now, Harris has 6 keys and Trump only has 3.
Lichtman still has four keys to hand out but Harris is already at 6 meaning, in his own words, "a lot would have to go wrong for Democrats to lose."
Lichtman is waiting until the DNC to make his final prediction.
(Excerpt) Read more at x.com ...
Lichtman is providing cover for the massive cheating that will follow.
My point is that Kamala is the worst possible candidate they could run.
If we can’t beat her we would lose the election to a chimp.
1. short-term economy: the economy is great! We can afford to eat noodles from WalMart!
2. long-term economy: the whole world is flocking to the dollar!
3. policy change: we have lots of “newcomers”, yeah!
4. foreign/military failure: Russia is down to fighting with shovels!
5. foreign/military success: we ran a successful test to see if Afghans can fly when jumping off transport planes!
5. incumbent charisma: who doesn’t love a yellow school bus?
Biden didn’t win in 2020
Forget everyone else.
I'm sure Trump understands this. This is the very reason why he picked JD Vance.
Oh my, look at all of the Democrat and anti-Trump activists on this thread, lol.
Yup. Only if they cheat. Which we can count on.
I don’t think the same rules apply that have been in place for decades. People are awake. People have learned so much about their fake government and fake media. So much has been exposed, and the uni-party is no longer the ruling body.
If things were the same as the past, I might think the guy is correct, but things are very different now. Very different. Cheating, however, is the one constant.
“Let the proxies point out how stupid she is.”
Yes. Let surrogates do that. And let female POC surrogates destroy her continuously.
He and Vance should stick to the issues.
No, he was correctly betting that when there is no incumbent the race more often goes to the challenger. As is the case this time around.
This seems like a stretch. If he was objective, which he isn't, he would put this on hold or dicard it for now
Nope. Wait until September.
*If the black vote turns out for Harris in MI-WI-PA, she could win those states. Those states would have gone for Hillary in 2016 except the black vote was lower than expected”
I agree. If Kamala continues to generate enthusiasm amongst black voters, especially black women, then I won’t be surprised one bit if Kamala wins those three states.
Is Lichtman the Jean Dixon of Psephologists?
When is this little liberal wimpy ho gonna go away? He’s been around too long.
Yes. Everyone was SURE Hillary had a 95% chance of beating Trump in 2016.
I remember some liberal woman in New York once famously cried out, “How could Nixon have won such a victory? Nobody I know voted for him.”
And he hasn't been objective in several categories this time around.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House
It's a long road until someone gets to put the key in the front door as the 47th. All the pearl clutchers need to stop blindly believing the people who've done nothing but lie to you for decades. How much do you all need to take before you begin to awaken?
If you're in the other camp who believes there's nothing can be done, 'The beast is too powerful!! Flee for your lives!', then go, wait for defeat, 'May your chains set lightly upon you.'
The rest of us know the road is never easy and there's much work to be done.
We are gonna see the 1968 convention replay in Chicago.
The protesters are already lined up.
I wouldn’t doubt that this time they get onto the convention floor.
I love these threads. It brings out the smug Never-Trumpers like flies to sh!t.
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