The Sun's Most Powerful Flare in Seven Years Just Erupted

Science Alert ^ | May 16, 2024 | MICHELLE STARR

[absalom01]

A solar flare measured at X8.7 on the strength scale just emerged from AR 3664, the sunspot region responsible for last weekend's solar storms that sparked vivid auroras.

That's the most powerful solar flare of the current cycle, absolutely the most powerful since 2017, and comfortably within the top 20 solar flares ever measured.

As AR 3664 made its way toward the edge of the Sun's disk, it wasn't just the X8.7 flare on May 14 that erupted from the solar limb. On May 15, an X3.4 flare followed suit, suggesting that the giant sunspot region is going to continue its party on the far side of the Sun, out of view from Earth.

X-class flares are the most powerful eruptions our Sun can manage.

...

Because of the position of both flares, further solar storms from AR 3664 are unlikely. But a sunspot region that is just beyond the limb on the opposite side of the Sun, about to emerge from the far side, spat out an X2.9 flare, also on May 15 – which means we could be in for more interesting times here on Earth in the days ahead.

 

[Omnivore-Dan]

I’m sure there was. And am sure there will be again.

[citizen]

It largely missed the earth.

Someday, a Carrington-class flare will again hit earth.

[absalom01]

Someday, a Carrington-class flare will again hit earth.

Of that I have no doubt. The question is, and I have no idea what the answer might be, is would a massive CME like that actually be capable of a large and uncontrolled grid-down scenario. Back in the late 90's and early 00's when this was a hot topic among the "prepared", (or those trying to be) the thinking seemed to largely analogize an EMP event. Which would come out of the blue, without giving a grid operator or anyone else any time to take any measures. We would know that a CME was coming. Sure, communications satelites, GPS, basically anything in orbit could be knocked out, but the CME would take at least a couple of days to get to Earth. And if it did, would it be able to overwhelm a modern power transmission system?

Hoover dam, for example, is has a design rating of 2,000 megawatts, if memory serves, and the transmission lines from there to Los Angeles operate (again from memory) at around 3000 Kv. That's a far cry from a 6 volt 24 amp telegraph line.

I have no idea of the answers, just kinda curious about what the real impact might be.

The only thing that I could find on line says that a big CME could induce ~10Kv, coming as short-duration pulses, which doesn't seem like something that would endanger a major transmission line. So, local effects maybe? Dunno, just kinda curious.