Posted on 12/20/2022 1:59:12 AM PST by Cathi
Douglas Macgregor
Dec 20, 2022 12:03 AM
During a speech given on November 29, Polish Vice-Minister of National Defense (MON) Marcin Ociepa said: "The probability of a war in which we will be involved is very high. Too high for us to treat this scenario only hypothetically." The Polish MON is allegedly planning to call up 200,000 reservists in 2023 for a few weeks’ training, but observers in Warsaw suspect this action could easily lead to a national mobilization.
Meanwhile, inside the Biden administration, there is growing concern that the Ukrainian war effort will collapse under the weight of a Russian offensive. And as the ground in Southern Ukraine finally freezes, the administration’s fears are justified. In an interview published in the Economist, head of Ukraine’s armed forces General Valery Zaluzhny admitted that Russian mobilization and tactics are working. He even hinted that Ukrainian forces might be unable to withstand the coming Russian onslaught.
Yet, Zaluzhny rejected any notion of a negotiated settlement and instead pleaded for more equipment and support. He went on to insist that with 300 new tanks, 600 to 700 new infantry fighting vehicles, and 500 new Howitzers, he could still win the war with Russia. Truthfully, General Zaluzhny is not asking for assistance, he’s asking for a new army. Therein lies the greatest danger for Washington and its NATO allies.
When things go badly for Washington’s foreign policy, the true believers in the great cause always draw deeply from the well of ideological self-delusion to steel themselves for the final battle. Blinken, Klain, Austin, and the rest of the war party continue to pledge eternal support for Kiev regardless of the cost. Like the “best and the brightest” of the 1960s they are eager to sacrifice realism to wishful thinking, to wallow in the splash of publicity and self-promotion in one public visit to Ukraine after another.
This spectacle is frighteningly reminiscent of events more than 50 years ago, when Washington’s proxy war in Vietnam was failing. Doubters within the Johnson administration about the wisdom of intervening on the ground to rescue Saigon from certain destruction went into hiding. In 1963, Washington already had 16,000 military advisors in Vietnam. The idea that Washington was supporting a government in South Vietnam that might not win against North Vietnam was dismissed out of hand. Secretary of State Dean Rusk said, “We will not pull out until the war is won.”
By the spring of 1965, American military advisors were already dying. General Westmoreland, then commander of Military Assistance Command Vietnam, reported to LBJ: “It is increasingly apparent that the existing levels of United States aid cannot prevent the collapse of South Vietnam... North Vietnam is moving in for the kill... Acting on the request of the South Vietnamese government, the decision must be made to commit as soon as possible 125,000 United States troops to prevent the Communist takeover.”
The Biden administration’s unconditional support for the Zelensky regime in Kiev is reaching a strategic inflection point not unlike the one LBJ reached in 1965. Just as LBJ suddenly determined in 1964 that peace and security in Southeast Asia was a vital U.S. strategic interest, the Biden administration is making a similar argument now for Ukraine. Like South Vietnam in the 1960s, Ukraine is losing its war with Russia.
Ukraine’s hospitals and morgues are filled to capacity with wounded and dying Ukrainian soldiers. Washington’s proxy in Kiev has squandered its human capital and considerable Western aid in a series of self-defeating counter-offensives. Ukrainian soldiers manning the defensive lines facing Russian soldiers in Southern Ukraine are brave men, but they are not fools. The Spartans at Thermopylae were brave, and they still died.
The real danger now is that Biden will soon appear on television to repeat LBJ’s performance in 1965, substituting the word "Ukraine" for "South Vietnam":
Tonight, my fellow Americans I want to speak to you about freedom, democracy, and the struggle of the Ukrainian people for victory. No other question so preoccupies our people. No other dream so absorbs the millions who live in Ukraine and Eastern Europe… However, I am not talking about a NATO attack on Russia. Rather, I propose to send a U.S. led coalition of the willing, consisting of American, Polish, and Romanian armed forces into Ukraine, to establish the ground equivalent of a “no-fly zone.” The mission I propose is a peaceful one, to create a safe zone in the Western most portion of Ukraine for Ukrainian Forces and refugees struggling to survive Russia’s devastating attacks…
Disaster wrapped in rhetoric is not the way to save the people of Ukraine. The war in Ukraine is not a Call of Duty fantasy. It is an enlargement of the human tragedy that NATO’s eastward expansion created. The victims do not live in North America. They live in a region that most Americans can't find on a map. Washington urged the Ukrainians to fight. Now Washington must urge them to stop.
NATO’s governments are divided in their thinking about the war in Ukraine. Except for Poland and, possibly, Romania, none of NATO’s members are in a rush to mobilize their forces for a long, grueling war of attrition with Russia in Ukraine. No one in London, Paris, or, Berlin wants to run the risk of a nuclear war with Moscow. Americans do not support going to war with Russia, and those few who do are ideologues, shallow political opportunists, or greedy defense contractors.
When U.S. forces finally withdrew from Southeast Asia, Americans thought that Washington would exercise greater restraint, recognize the limits of American power, and pursue a less militant, and more realistic foreign policy. Americans were mistaken then, but Americans and Europeans know now that Washington’s refusal to acknowledge Russia’s legitimate security interests in Ukraine and negotiate an end to this war is the path to protracted conflict and more human suffering.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR Douglas Macgregor Douglas Macgregor, Col. (ret.) is a senior fellow with The American Conservative, the former advisor to the Secretary of Defense in the Trump administration, a decorated combat veteran, and the author of five books.
🇷🇺IL RUSSO🇷🇺, [12/20/2022 3:32 AM]
💥💥💥In the Kyiv region the situation remains critical, with no electricity in 80% of the region.
More Macgregor foolishness.
Whose stopping anybody from leaving Kyiv?
Good old Travis, justifying and excusing Russian conquering, genocide, and annexation of independent Ukraine and its 44 million people.
Evacuate or freeze? Kyiv braces for worst case of a winter without power
Even before I saw this article I’ve been thinking about the war there. Specifically the very worst possible outcome (besides it spreading into a wider war).
Which would be the detestation of Ukraine, complete loss of its sovereignty , the bleeding white of it’s young male population , coupled with massive debt from Western nations, food shortages and increased inflation.
Then Russia wins anyway, Which is a distinct possibility. From day one this administration should have used more diplomacy and tried to seek an agreement with Russia.
“Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to f... things up.”‘
—Barack Obama
After 10 months of invasion, the only russian 'victory' is how much of Kyiv has or hasn't electricity. Pretty sad
Washington wants to partner with Putin on a new Trump policy busting Iran deal. The facts are all sitting right in front of our faces. Ignore them if you wish.
Sure, I hear Kyiv will surrender any day now due to lack of electricity.
Russia can’t win so it’s useful idiot propagandists insist Ukraine must surrender. It such a typically Bolshevik gaslighting campaigning. Sadly, some weak and defeated American conservatives are so broken by domestic politics that they end up believing these Kremlin lies.
Right, all the press in Kyiv missed all the military checkpoints stopping people from leaving Kyiv. Okay
It’s a tragedy; no doubt about it.
Great Moon of Alabama article:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/12/ukraine-is-there-really-a-change-of-the-narrative.html#more
Sullivan: “We don’t know when this is going to end up. What we do know is that it is our job to continue to sustain our military support to Ukraine so that they are in their best possible position on the battlefield, that if and when diplomacy is ripe, they will be in the best possible position at the negotiating table.”
“That moment is not ripe now, and so, as a result, we’ve gone to Congress and asked for a substantial amount of further resources to be able to continue to ensure that Ukraine has the means to fight this war. We’re confident we will get bipartisan support for that… “
General Zaluzhny’s request:
“I know that I can beat this enemy. But I need resources. I need 300 tanks, 600-700 IFVs, 500 Howitzers. Then, I think it is completely realistic to get to the lines of February 23rd.”
Bhadrakumar: “Therefore, in the prevailing circumstances, Russia’s option narrows down to inflicting a crushing defeat on Ukraine in the coming months and installing a government in Kiev that is not under Washington’s control. But that requires a fundamental shift in the Russian military strategy, which would factor in the real possibility of a confrontation with the US and NATO at some point.”
“At the start of the war Ukraine had, at least on paper, a well equipped military”
Ukraine has a lot of tanks and is ranked 13th across the globe with 2,430. In terms of armored vehicles, Kiev also ranks high, occupying the seventh spot globally with 11,435. Kiev’s artillery power is also formidable at 2,040 batteries.”
“That General Zaluzhny requested all that new stuff is a confession that most if not all the old stuff is gone. That includes the weapons he received after the war started. If the 20 percent of the Russian military that was used in Ukraine could do so much material damage in such a short time how long would a NATO army in a war against Russia survive?”
______________________
Sounds like the American plan is to finance tens of thousands of more Ukrainian soldiers deaths until Ukraine is “in their best possible position on the battlefield, that if and when diplomacy is ripe, they will be in the best possible position at the negotiating table.”
Gawd life is cheap...:-(
bkmk
"It's high time the Slavic race was in charge of Europe."
Putin is channeling Stalin, and desperately wants to succeed where Stalin failed
Never forget that modern-day Russian culture is largely derived from the Mongol hordes who over-ran the region in the 13th century. They never really left.
If Western Civ is to survive, it must make it clear to Putin and his successors that such racial aggressions will be resisted without limit. We taught this lesson to Germany, now it's Russia's turn.
Right, like russians would hesitate shelling cities because of civilians.
This is what's left of Mariupol after Russians came to "liberate" it
It’s Kiev, not Kyiv, and the article discusses evacuation. Please keep up.
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