Lessons From the U.S. Civil War Show Why Ukraine Can't Win | Opinion

Newsweek ^ | December 6, 2022 | MICHAEL GFOELLER AND DAVID H. RUNDELL

[Cathi]

Russian President Vladimir Putin waited only six months before switching from a special military operation to full scale war against Ukraine. Putin's initial assault was limited to barely 150,000 troops. He expected a quick victory followed by negotiations on his principal concerns: Russian control of Crimea, Ukrainian neutrality, and autonomy for the Russian population in the Donbas, but he was wrong. Putin had not counted on Ukraine's stiff resistance or the West's massive military and economic intervention. Faced with a new situation, Putin changed his strategy. Now he is about to unleash his own General Sherman and make Ukraine howl.

Russia has now put its economy on a war footing, called up the reserves, and assembled hundreds of thousands of troops, including both conscripts and volunteers. This army is equipped with Russia's most sophisticated weapons, and contrary to much Western reporting, is far from demoralized. Ukraine on the other hand has exhausted its armories and is totally dependent on Western military support to continue the war. As Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley noted last week, Ukraine has done about all it can.

Once Ukraine's rich black soil has firmly frozen, a massive Russian onslaught will commence. In fact, it has already begun at the important transportation hub of Bakhmut, which has become something of a Ukrainian Verdun. We expect Bakhmut to fall and predict that without much more Western support, Russia will recapture Kharkov, Kherson, and the remainder of the Donbas by next summer.

(more at https://www.newsweek.com/lessons-us-civil-war-show-why-ukraine-cant-win-opinion-1764992)

[Armscor38]

The Civil War would very likely have turned out differently if several major powers of the time supported the South.

[Gunslingr3]

No, the Russia fans are the ones who try to spin 9 months of being driven backwards after the Russian high water mark in March as success.
I tried to get some of these Russia fans to tell me what would be an acceptable reason for the Russians to be driven from Kherson. There was one who said the Russians would never be driven from Kherson, but no others would or could offer an excuse beforehand. Now it’s come to pass and they’re buying it nonsense about the Russians retaking Kherson. None of them will accept my bet. Which tells me inside they don’t really believe what they’re posting. Why they still do it is a mystery, but they do.

[MileHi]

Fortunately there are still real men in the world who understand what it means to fight for freedom.

Indeed. As the Z man bans opposition political parties, media outlets, religious institutions, political speech. Yes, a shining beacon of freedom and democracy.

It's all about the Laundromat. Fools.

[pierrem15]

It's hard to tell what the Russian's are trying to do in Bakhmut. My guess is they are trying to pin a good part of the Ukrainian army down to keep them from further offensives in the east or south while wearing them down, sort of like the German strategy at Verdun. I occasionally read some front-line reporting in the German press from Bakhmut. The Germans are consistently impressed by how few units the Ukrainians actually have there and how they are pounding the Russians.

If I were to guess, what is really going on is that Prigozhin was trying to out-do the regular army who got sucked into this debacle, and they are blowing smoke up Putin's butt about what's really going on hoping he'll croak before the truth gets out. Meanwhile there are some "maneuvers" going on in Belarus but the Ukrainians no longer think the Russians will try another northern attack: Kiev's defenses are now much better and the Pripet marshes are still hell to traverse all the way to the Polish border, so I doubt there will be another assault there.

[Renfrew]

” Z man bans opposition political parties, media outlets, religious institutions, political speech”

So if you were in Britain in WWII:
* You would have opposed Churchill outlawing the British Union of Fascists
* You would have protested the Ministry of Information controlling press coverage

I’m glad we had Churchill rather than am imbecile like you in charge

[Renfrew]

“It’s hard to tell what the Russian’s are trying to do in Bakhmut.”

If you read Russian Telegram for months it has been focused on Bakhmut. Every time a block is gained it represents a national victory (and they don’t have to mention the blocks that are lost).

I think that is why they keep it going. Throw a few thousand Wagner Group convicts and other undesirables to gain some ground that can be used for propaganda.

[freeandfreezing]

It's all about the Laundromat...

A lot of people repeat that talking point, but so far I haven't seen anybody post any solid evidence of money laundering in Ukraine of the scale and type your accusation suggests. Do you have some evidence, or are you just repeating the talking point you have heard?

[Old West Conservative]

Yes, you described Russia perfectly.

[Old West Conservative]

Not to mention the freedoms that FDR took away in World War 2. Yet I don’t denounce him for it (I just point out the hypocrisy of the American left when they talk about conservatives forcing illegal immigrants into “concentration camps”)

I don’t denounce FDR for the brutal measures that were taken for a simple reason — for all of his countless socialist blunders, FDR did recognize that the U.S. was facing an existential threat in its struggle against the dictators in Germany and Japan.

He was willing to wage a fight to the finish.

Of course, FDR also blundered by giving Uncle Joe free rein in Eastern Europe.

Thankfully, despite FDR’s stupidity in assisting in the creation of the Soviet empire, we were eventually rescued — yet again — by the right man at the right time — Ronald Reagan.

[MileHi]

So now Z man is Churchill. That’s rich, ya brain trust.

[Bruce Campbells Chin]

The most powerful player within a sphere of influence always calls the shots.

Then how did Russia lose in Afghanistan? For that matter, how did we lose there, or in Vietnam?

[cowboyusa]

Don’t care, care more about fighting rhe reds and pinks here.

[Vaden]

Newsweek used to be verboten among conservatives but Putler’s fans have resurrected it to try to destroy Ukraine. So pathetic.

[jmacusa]

Yeah, right? “Jeffdem’’ is another so called ‘’conservative’’ who comes to a conservative web site venerating a bunch of treasonous Southern Democrats.

[Armscor38]

The most powerful player within a sphere of influence always calls the shots.

NATO, which borders UKR and Russia, is more powerful then Russia.

[Seruzawa]

Nice sounding, but the Ukraine govt won’t be handing out any freedom. I can only imagine the atrocities occurring in the areas “liberated” from Russia as “collaborators” (anyone the new Junta doesn’t like) are tortured and executed.

[x]

The South could have retreated to the hills and fought a gorilla war until the North gave up and quit.

Maybe, but a lot had changed between 1776 and 1861. Nationalism, democracy, mass-circulation newspapers. Give up Philadelphia for Lancaster or York or Annapolis or Baltimore in the 1770s and people figure it's just the way things are and go on fighting. Surrender Richmond and take to the hills in the 1860s and people eventually figure that the war is over or the new country isn't worth fighting for anymore.

Guerilla war worked in Vietnam because the base territory in North Vietnam was never invaded by the US and RVN. After four or five years of guerrilla war in the American South it might have been the rebel armies who gave up, as happened in the our war with the Philippines insurgents. Or maybe the rebellion would have dried up to manageable banditry as happened with recent Latin American civil wars.

[gleeaikin]

Actually Lee did go full “ape” and it ensured the failure of his army.

I am currently reading The Killer Angels (A novel of the Civil War). It specifically focuses on the battle at Gettysburg, and the top officers of both sides. It was well researched, and the thoughts and feelings of these key officers is presented in chilling detail.

This was the first, and last, major excursion into enemy territory, and Lee was determined to make the most of it. He was apparently feeling the effects and drain of the heart condition that would eventually kill him. He was seriously betrayed by Jeb Stuart who ignored his orders to use his cavelry to travel widely, determine size and location of Union forces, and maintain reporting to Lee. Stuarts deriliction of duty was so severe several Generals wanted him court marshalled.

Lee ignored important pieces of advice from his best general, Longstreet, who pioneered military concepts of defensive warfare. Taking and holding high ground is an important military concept. On the second day Lee did not send troops south of Little Round Top and lacking those extra troops the rebels were unable to take this piece of high grounds with very heavy losses. On the third day Lee insisted a reluctant Longstreet attack the center of Cemetary Ridge, up a steep hill against dug in and well fortified troops. The losses were catastrophic, and the war returned to the south and never again in the next 2 years entered the north. That night and intense storm washed all the blood into the earth. The following day was the 4th of July.

Will Putin do any better if he decides to go full “ape,” or is he already doing that?

[dangus]

I have, and actually the further I read, the more it becomes nakedly Soviet propaganda. Newsweek always did love them Stalinists. Still does, I guess.

[skepsel]

Thanks, but it was just a goof on “gorilla” war. 😉