Posted on 12/08/2022 2:34:59 PM PST by Cathi
Russian President Vladimir Putin waited only six months before switching from a special military operation to full scale war against Ukraine. Putin's initial assault was limited to barely 150,000 troops. He expected a quick victory followed by negotiations on his principal concerns: Russian control of Crimea, Ukrainian neutrality, and autonomy for the Russian population in the Donbas, but he was wrong. Putin had not counted on Ukraine's stiff resistance or the West's massive military and economic intervention. Faced with a new situation, Putin changed his strategy. Now he is about to unleash his own General Sherman and make Ukraine howl.
Russia has now put its economy on a war footing, called up the reserves, and assembled hundreds of thousands of troops, including both conscripts and volunteers. This army is equipped with Russia's most sophisticated weapons, and contrary to much Western reporting, is far from demoralized. Ukraine on the other hand has exhausted its armories and is totally dependent on Western military support to continue the war. As Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley noted last week, Ukraine has done about all it can.
Once Ukraine's rich black soil has firmly frozen, a massive Russian onslaught will commence. In fact, it has already begun at the important transportation hub of Bakhmut, which has become something of a Ukrainian Verdun. We expect Bakhmut to fall and predict that without much more Western support, Russia will recapture Kharkov, Kherson, and the remainder of the Donbas by next summer.
(more at https://www.newsweek.com/lessons-us-civil-war-show-why-ukraine-cant-win-opinion-1764992)
(Excerpt) Read more at newsweek.com ...
This is really Biden’s war. Totally avoidable, but Democrats have had a hard on for humiliating the Russians and pushing Ukraine into NATO. Failure imminent as to be expected.
Don’t know if Putin has the stomach to go full Lincoln on the opposing civilians, if he does they will surrender or all be killed.
>> and predict that without much more Western support, Russia will recapture Kharkov, Kherson, and the remainder of the Donbas by next summer. <<
That’s a qualification so huge as to render the prediction meaningless. Does “more” mean “continued” or “expanded”? Professional wordsmiths aren’t so sloppy. No-one doubts whether suddenly cutting Ukraine off would devastate their chances of victory, but he might be read as saying massive expansions of war effort are necessary.
I’m not impressed by former diplomats. They have a devastating track record of becoming apologists for the tyrants that rule the countries they stay in. Even those in the unaligned world are nearly all enemies of America.
>> full Lincoln on the opposing civilians, <<
That means a lot from someone named JeffersonDem on a conservative site.
You have to read to the end of the article to see that they also blame us if Iran attacks Israel and they want the Iran nuclear agreement back.
At the end they also say that their military prediction might not happen.
With some interest in the American Civil War, I know their opening statement about how Lincoln attempted to prosecute the war for 3 years simply was not accurate.
You might want to read the whole article before forming an opinion. Free Republic only allows 300 words in the excerpt.
The poor citizens of Ukraine are broke, sitting in the dark, boiling water, and freezing and now that the ground is nearly frozen solid will experience the same sort of warfare that crushed the Germans in WW II. This doesn’t feel like winning. Let’s go Brandon!
A truly surprising analysis from a zombie deep-state publication like Newsweek.
The Civil War analogy is a good one, and works in many ways. The UK, the the hegemon/empire of the day (like the USA now), could have thrown in with the South to create a festering wound for the North, as the USA is doing against Russia. They did not.
The British were busy elsewhere (against Russia) to commit too much aid to the Confederacy - and Lincoln invited the Russian fleet to winter in US ports - particularly NY City.
https://www.boweryboyshistory.com/2022/02/150-years-ago-russians-invaded-new-york.html
My best guess it will turn into a stalmate. Both sides will dig in and a few missiles shot across each others lines every so often. Will last 10 year if not longer. A few troops killed on each side every so often. Acceptable losses each side.
This will allow both sides not to lose face. Neither will win or lose.
The South could have retreated to the hills and fought a gorilla war until the North gave up and quit.
Plus it was much easier to “win” any war back then. After WW2 we put “rules” in place to make war unprofitable and unwinnable. And until “we” lose, those rules will be obeyed more of less except when we choose to not obey them since we are sort of exempt.
The whole world system is designed to keep us in power forever, and until someone defeats us it will remain that way.
Russians never captured Kharkov. If any Freepers imagine Russia will recapture Kherson by next summer I’m here to take your money.
I bet exactly ZERO of the Russian fans on this site will take the bet. There is something about having to put your own money where your mouth is…
So Lee should have gone ape, eh?
Is it mandatory for Freepers to take sides between 2 non-free countries at war with each other? I think not.
500-800 Ukies KIA a day, more than the US lost in Vietnam in one month....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdshHJW3PMU
If this is an attrition war, Ukies are not going to win, at all.
Are the Russians going to try a cavalry charge across the fields towards the Ukrainian lines?
The analysis from these two ambassadors seems completely divorced from the reality of the situation on the ground in Ukraine.
In the Second World War the Russians depended on significant support from the allied nations. They don't have that now.
“The poor citizens of Ukraine are broke, sitting in the dark, boiling water, and freezing”
And yet they fight on.
If you were at Valley Forge freezing and starving for six months, I expect you would have been one to call to abandon the Revolution and surrender to the British.
If you were in London in 1940 being kept awake every night by the German bombs pounding the city I expect you would be pleading with Churchill to give in to the Nazi forces.
Fortunately there are still real men in the world who understand what it means to fight for freedom.
You are correct. In Ukraine there are plenty of men, women, and even children who refuse to give up their freedom. Even behind the Russian lines there are many civilians risking their lives to help their nation.
The authors of the article look like they wouldn't lift a finger to preserve freedom anywhere unless they were getting paid to do so. They look like they would surrender if they couldn't have jam with their croissants.
Freedom in that place is a fact not yet in evidence, yet it seems to be assumed by many on this board. Banning opposition political parties? Banning opposition speech? Shutting down media unless it is pro-goverment? Sounds almost like the Biden mis-administration is in charge over there
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