This is really Biden’s war. Totally avoidable, but Democrats have had a hard on for humiliating the Russians and pushing Ukraine into NATO. Failure imminent as to be expected.
Don’t know if Putin has the stomach to go full Lincoln on the opposing civilians, if he does they will surrender or all be killed.
>> and predict that without much more Western support, Russia will recapture Kharkov, Kherson, and the remainder of the Donbas by next summer. <<
That’s a qualification so huge as to render the prediction meaningless. Does “more” mean “continued” or “expanded”? Professional wordsmiths aren’t so sloppy. No-one doubts whether suddenly cutting Ukraine off would devastate their chances of victory, but he might be read as saying massive expansions of war effort are necessary.
I’m not impressed by former diplomats. They have a devastating track record of becoming apologists for the tyrants that rule the countries they stay in. Even those in the unaligned world are nearly all enemies of America.
You have to read to the end of the article to see that they also blame us if Iran attacks Israel and they want the Iran nuclear agreement back.
At the end they also say that their military prediction might not happen.
With some interest in the American Civil War, I know their opening statement about how Lincoln attempted to prosecute the war for 3 years simply was not accurate.
The poor citizens of Ukraine are broke, sitting in the dark, boiling water, and freezing and now that the ground is nearly frozen solid will experience the same sort of warfare that crushed the Germans in WW II. This doesn’t feel like winning. Let’s go Brandon!
A truly surprising analysis from a zombie deep-state publication like Newsweek.
The Civil War analogy is a good one, and works in many ways. The UK, the the hegemon/empire of the day (like the USA now), could have thrown in with the South to create a festering wound for the North, as the USA is doing against Russia. They did not.
The British were busy elsewhere (against Russia) to commit too much aid to the Confederacy - and Lincoln invited the Russian fleet to winter in US ports - particularly NY City.
https://www.boweryboyshistory.com/2022/02/150-years-ago-russians-invaded-new-york.html
My best guess it will turn into a stalmate. Both sides will dig in and a few missiles shot across each others lines every so often. Will last 10 year if not longer. A few troops killed on each side every so often. Acceptable losses each side.
This will allow both sides not to lose face. Neither will win or lose.
The South could have retreated to the hills and fought a gorilla war until the North gave up and quit.
Plus it was much easier to “win” any war back then. After WW2 we put “rules” in place to make war unprofitable and unwinnable. And until “we” lose, those rules will be obeyed more of less except when we choose to not obey them since we are sort of exempt.
The whole world system is designed to keep us in power forever, and until someone defeats us it will remain that way.
Russians never captured Kharkov. If any Freepers imagine Russia will recapture Kherson by next summer I’m here to take your money.
I bet exactly ZERO of the Russian fans on this site will take the bet. There is something about having to put your own money where your mouth is…
500-800 Ukies KIA a day, more than the US lost in Vietnam in one month....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdshHJW3PMU
If this is an attrition war, Ukies are not going to win, at all.
Are the Russians going to try a cavalry charge across the fields towards the Ukrainian lines?
The analysis from these two ambassadors seems completely divorced from the reality of the situation on the ground in Ukraine.
In the Second World War the Russians depended on significant support from the allied nations. They don't have that now.
Ukraine doesn’t need to win this war. They just need to stop Russia from winning and that is what they’re doing.
As his fuel supplies are pushed further back into Mother Russia…Putin will need a shitload of tanker trucks.
Ukraine Daily Losing Battalion in Bakhmut, Ex US Officials Ukraine Cannot Win, Putin Russian Buildup
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EbXYQPleZDM
Putin's autocracy is built on even worse systematic corruption than the Soviet Union in its dying days. The theft and lies stretch all the way from the platoon stealing explosives from their reactive armor and electronic components all the way to the top. It weakens every unit in the Russian army and ensures the chain of command has no idea of the state of the units under their command or even how many men are really present or where they are.
Putin will be able to marshal additional units, but they will be even worse trained and equipped than his current army. He may be able to cobble a few brigades of decently trained and equipped troops but they will still lack the ability to fight combined arms and take advantage of any breakthroughs achieved.
Even now, the Ukrainians are able to hold Bakhmut with far fewer losses than against the summer Russian Donbas offensive and with more and more accurate Western artillery are inflicting punishing losses on the Russian army. Meanwhile, Poland just received a few hundred South Korean tanks and self-propelled artillery. The upgraded T72s and artillery they replace will be going to Ukraine, and Germany is getting pushed to deliver Leopards.
Sherman or no Sherman, the North would have lost.
Zelensky could have stopped all this death and destruction by agreeing to this back in February. Some day he will.
Stupid analogy that does not work.