Posted on 09/20/2022 6:45:04 PM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks
The NOAA GFS model is showing a hurricane moving north through the Gulf and making landfall on the western Florida panhandle on September 30. The 12Z 09/20 run had it approaching Apalachicola, while the 18Z run has it making landfall at or near Pensacola. I suspect future model updates will continue to have the hurricane tracking further and further west. JMO.
They make the houses in Florida hurricane resistant. One of my friends from down there made a house with her father out of cinder blocks and concrete because the zoning required it.
I’ve been through about 6 or 7 on the east coast in VA and NC. If it hits at night, take a Benadryl and go to sleep. The lights will go off anyhow and you’ll have nothing to do.
If they aren’t ready by now then they never will be.
Ugh, no thanks.
A couple of days will do it.
Hurricane in Florida in Fall? Global warming is worserlier than ever!
My sis is now living in Jax and her hubby has kin just north of there within spitting distance from A1A on a bay
They build their octagon shaped house hurricane proof, with a 12” I-beam frame with the pilings going down 85 feet
They’ll lived in that area for 40 years, after living on a secluded barrier island in Georgia for several years
I figured that with all those tight isobars around the center, it’s going to be hurricane force winds. Hopefully, you will turn out to be correct, and it will be just a tropical storm.
There has been so little tropic development this year, just wait until the news stories next year saying how much worse it will be than this year because of globull warming.
anyway, the forecast is still a model that is pretty far off in the future, so while it's a good reminder for people to be ready, it may still change it's path.
for the geeky people on the board, here is a link that consolidate a lot of information on active systems for you. it currently doesn't have a gfs model for the system that was mention yet, though.
Like I said before, I figure successive model runs will have this thing tracking further and further west. There was a previous hurricane predicted to hit Pensacola around labor day, then the model had it ultimately hitting the NOLA area, then Texas around Brownsville, then finally no storm at all.
Is this the same model that predicted an above average season?
Being a hurricane forecaster means never being reminded of past predictions.
That and the media covering the long lines of people that were surprised and had to get out at the last moment. Its almost reminiscent of (The Holiday that they wont say) and reminds you to get out spending for the upcoming "Holiday season".
Mebbe Global Warming (TM) caused the wind-blown Sahara Dust phenomenon over the Atlantic that quieted things down. :-)
Weather forecaster is one of those occupations where you can be wrong 50% of the time and still have a job.
But that’s 10 DAYS away! They can predict within 100 miles of the actual landfall 2-3 days ahead, but it they get one right 10 days out, it was just luck.
Side note to pulled thread about
MAIL ORDER BRIDES,,,
I’D JUST popped in Dr. Strangelove..Strangely...
Ha!
They pulled it for;
SOLICITATION,,,,
.
.
CHEERS
It looks like from the colors 60-74 mph
mark
Yep. That’s why I said I’d figure the track will move westward over time. It’s why I alluded to a POSSIBLE hurricane strike.
VA and NC don’t get real hurricanes.
GFS shows lowest pressure at 929. That’s good enough for a cat 4. We’ll see.
Hazel in 1955 hit va and nc.
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