Posted on 07/06/2022 9:45:41 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Before the mayhem, Ukraine was known as “Europe’s breadbasket.”
The most fertile soil deposits on Earth lie within the country’s borders. This “chernozem” (or “black soil”) lets the nation produce massive wheat and oilseed exports.
But the Russia-Ukraine war threw the breadbasket into chaos…
A Russian blockade halted Ukraine’s agricultural exports. Food prices have soared worldwide as a result – and that’s on top of existing inflation.
I’m not sharing this to alarm you, though. In fact, I want to highlight some early signs of relief…
New data shows that the rate of food inflation may be stalling, at least for the moment. And if this trend holds, we should see a pause in our climbing grocery bills.
Let me explain…
This February marked almost two years of food supply-chain chaos.
In 2020, staff shortages due to COVID-19 crippled meat-packing plants. That put a squeeze on beef and chicken. Then, turnaround times for cargo vessels nearly doubled in 2021, slowing food imports to a crawl.
Plus, nearly $20 billion worth of U.S. crops failed due to natural disasters in those two years combined.
The costs of these headwinds made their way to store shelves. From 2020 to 2022, the price of food and drink soared by 10% for urban consumers.
Then, on February 24, the situation went from bad to worse. That’s when Russian troops set foot on Ukraine’s treasured soil.
The Russian blockade kept Ukraine from selling grain. On top of that, much of the world sanctioned Russian oil, making it more costly to transport food and agricultural products.
That one-two punch sent food inflation soaring.
We can track food prices using the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index. This index shows the cost of agricultural commodities like wheat, soybeans, and corn… And it broadly reflects the supply-demand dynamic for food in the U.S.
Before the pandemic, this index rose modestly. It was up about 9% in 2019.
The next year was a different story. Supply-chain issues drove the index up 24% in 2020. Then, 2021 saw another 23% year-over-year increase.
But the first half of 2022 has dwarfed even those moves. This year, the index soared almost 30% to its mid-May peak. Take a look…
This dizzying rise put a major dent in consumers’ wallets. But relief might be on the way. You can see it on the right side of the chart…
This index is now in decline. In fact, June was its biggest monthly fall in more than 10 years. That’s great news for American consumers.
What’s more, this move is being echoed outside the U.S.
The U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Organization (“FAO”) tracks price changes in various food commodities across the globe. It wraps this data into the FAO Food Price Index.
The Food Price Index has fallen for two consecutive months. Take a look…
After a blistering streak to the upside, food prices are starting to come back down…
The U.N. credits this move to falling demand and price declines in vegetable oil. Indonesia recently ended a ban on palm-oil exports, which helped create new supply.
Prices are also falling for coarse grains like corn, thanks to improved growing conditions in the U.S. And as for Ukraine, the nation’s agriculture exports were up 80% in May.
Whatever the causes, the decline in food prices is a much-needed reprieve for consumers. It means that our grocery budgets may be a little less stretched, for now.
We’re finally seeing a change in the trend. And with any luck… it means food inflation has reached a short-term peak.
“Oddly remained”
That is the way I’d bet it if I had to put money on it.
Nope, not buying it. These prices are here to stay. Right now we are seeing the glut of freight arriving in stores from the LA Port. I am hearing scattered reports of ‘no fruit’ in stores, Walmart limits in some locations, and the actual food shortage is still looming on the horizon for autumn.
Well let’s see. The food that it being grown right now is costing triple in fertilizer and double in diesel. How does that make it cheaper in the coming months?
This doesn’t mean prices are declining,just not going up more-
As long as it happens before midterms.
Heck, even Popcorn has gotten expensive. I’ve never been a fan of microwave pre-packaged or other stuff, just plain white popcorn cooked in a skillet. And it’s pushing 3 dollars a pound.
Drain the fat - though don’t throw it away! Maybe you know this already.
But, it’s like liquid gold for making gravy.
One thing I’ve wondered about, ground beef is approx. 975 calories per pound. That must include the fat. If drained, then some of the fattier versions are a lot less. I think maybe 100 calories per Tbsp. would be in the ballpark.
Reminds me of this little clip...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jwx09n6Yuv4
I’ve been told that beef fat is awesome for deep-frying, too. I haven’t tested that yet, but it’s on my list of things to try.
Yes, I bet it is. French fries & potatoes in particular if I had to guess.
Fats are very hard to source in emergencies. They are called “lean times” for a reason, ai expect. As an aside I read Lewis & Clark in their expedition journal, mentioning at one point the entire company were eating 7 to 10 pounds of venison daily per person (and little else was available) and were still ravenously hungry and wasting away, because there was so little fat on wild game in that season. I put up a couple cans of Crisco for emergency use or “just in case” and found if kept cool and dry it keeps practically indefinitely.
Prediction, if oil spikes again, which it probably will, food prices will rise.
It’s not over yet.
Isn’t the basic rule in the N Hemisphere (where most of the worlds land exists) that big food crops are harvested in the FALL? So the world is still using last years Ukraine grains? My guess is we arent even seeing the worst effect of the war yet. It will be sometimes this winter when last years supply runs out and this years supply fails to match.
For hundreds of years kingdoms in Europe attacked each other like clockwork in those countless mid-evil wars in late summer. The reason being they could make use of the ripened food and deny it to their enemy.
The only thing I can see to cancel that is food production booms in places like here, I’m not seeing that. Crops around S Indiana look worse this year.
FYI interesting fact.
They also suffered chronic constipation from lack of fiber. To combat this they ate a LEAD compound (which I understand is inert but I wouldnt want to eat it!) as a Laxative. The lead shows up nicely on detectors and as each night they made camp everyone would literally go shit in the woods. This makes it easier for archeologists today to track their movements as they can Go to a reported camp site and easily sensor the soil.
Just in time for the election.
That was a really good find!
I hadn’t heard that, it is my understanding that a common treatment widely used for Syphilis at that time was the use of Mercury containing compounds. The dose was said to be about right, if metallic Mercury was observed oozing from the scalp when squeezed. Venereal disease was rampant. Consequently archaeologists look for the presence of Mercury at probable latrine sites as evidence of their camp sites.
This could just as likely be a live balloon bounce off the bottom of a street light.
Yeah right sure
That newly inflated price will become the new base price.
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And the packaging will stay at the current, smaller sizes.
Prices may come down, but not back to what it was before, except maybe seasonally/regionally for a few areas when *the season* hits.
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