Posted on 04/11/2022 4:10:55 AM PDT by MtnClimber
Strategic relations between China and Taiwan are at their lowest point in 40 years. China views Taiwan as a province, while the government of Taiwan considers itself a sovereign state. The Nationalist Chinese government has ruled Taiwan since 1949. Following the Chinese Civil War, Chiang Kai-Shek, the Nationalist leader exiled to Taiwan and formed his own government there. In the early 1980s, China devised a governmental solution that allowed Taiwan to have autonomy known as "One country, two systems."
The 2016 election of Tsai Ing-Wen escalated tensions as she campaigned for independence from China and rejected Chairman Xi's plan for reunification. As a result, the Taiwanese government is on high alert as China has practiced air drills within Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ). This zone extends out as far as the Taiwan Strait and a large part of China’s mainland. Anything crossing the unofficial line between China and Taiwanese territory is considered an incursion.
The National Chengchi University conducted a survey that found more than 64% of citizens on the island of Taiwan identify as Taiwanese, while only 3% identify as Chinese. A similar poll from the Taiwan Center for International Strategic Studies found that 77% of Taiwanese will fight for Taiwan if China invades.
Taiwan’s defense minister Chiu Kuo-cheng warns of a Chinese invasion as the Taiwanese parliamentary is considering a multi-billion-dollar bill for defense spending for warships and missiles. Mr. Chiu warns that China will have the capability to mount a full-scale invasion by 2025. Taiwan’s top military advisors have studied the Russian invasion of Ukraine, particularly the parliamentary resistance, to help develop a strategy for a possible war with China. President Tsai Ing-wen has been a strong advocate for "asymmetrical warfare," which is the military tactic used by Ukrainian nationalists by becoming more mobile...
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Instead, I think they will gradually ratchet up an air and sea blockade, and dare the US Navy to break it. Our warships will be in CCP missile range long before they can approach Taiwan.
Will our submarines attempt to take out the blockading PLAN warships? Doubtful. That's WW3.
In the end, I think the Taiwanese billionaires will cut a deal with the CCP, and accept a "process" for gradual CCP control, in return for preserving their personal wealth.
Reality Check
Russia, one of the world’s “super powers” having a border with Ukraine, and more soldiers, planes, tanks, and ships then the Ukraine got their ass handed to them when combat began.
To invade Taiwan China would need to organize an invasion equal to D Day in WWII (which took years of planning).
Unlike Ukraine, Taiwan has been preparing the battle field for decades. As I understand it there only a few beaches suitable for landing craft and because of the weather only a few times during the year a fleet could cross the channel between the two countries.
The channel is relatively shallow and well patrolled by air, surface ships and submarines.
Taiwan itself is relatively small and has a mountain range running the length of the island effectively dividing it in two. I don’t know for a fact but I think we can assume that many caves have been created within that mountain range and stocked with supplies and equipment.
You can not simply tell your military to invade another country and expect it to be done quickly. Staging areas have to be created and men and supplies have to be brought to those areas which would soon become known by human and satellite intelligence.
One of the last points is that the Chinese Army is not very good. Mostly young men drafted for a set time, their Army spend more time as cheap labor for the government then it does training for war.
The final point is China is going broke. They don’t have the cash flow they had before they released the virus and like many newly rich people they have spent more then they had coming in using western banks and companies as ATMs.
So will China invade Taiwan - who knows, it would not be the best thing they could do. Could they take Taiwan - again who knows, perhaps but it would be costly.
While the US may do nothing to help, there are other nations in the region that would.
I would say I don’t think China will invade Taiwan but then I did not think Putin would invade Ukraine either. Sometimes nation leaders make ignorant decision based on lies they have been told.
The second “system” was for the former British colony of Hong Kong.
It was a 20-year frosting of freedom on a cake of communism.
China does not lack for money.
It has overpriced apartments that need to be reduced in price to be affordable to typical Chinese workers.
It has a housing affordability problem like the USA, but it has the housing already built.
Taiwan would let them easily block the sea route.
And there is a large internet cable south of Taiwan. When an earthquake damaged this in the mid 2000s, we lost 80 percent of our internet ability.
A blockade might result in the Taiwanese taking out the Three Gorges Dam. There are other nations besides the US interested in not seeing Taiwan invaded. It’s a pretty bright line. So far China has not been interested in conquest.
They take Taiwan and every country in the region is on notice. Their intelligence of China is likely far better than ours as well.
If Chinese hardware is in the same operational shape as the Russians, they will have issues. Also, once you take something, you have to hold it.
China gaining control of chip fab plants means chip fab will no longer every be sourced from china. Neither will anything else. They know that, which is why they have only talked about invading, and not invaded.
When dealing with communists, never underestimate their ability to do stupid, monstrous things. As communists, I don’t believe they care one iota about the human cost of war with Taiwan, and if they inflict tremendous damage to the industrial base of Taiwan they could care less as long as they can gain control. Applying logical thinking to a communist is almost never a winning strategy. Their religion is communism, and advancing that and their control takes precedent over any other consideration. The communists in this country are the perfect examples.
China will eventually control Taiwan. The cheapest strategy is to begin the great brain drain now. Move the English-speaking Taiwanese that don’t want to live under CCP rule to central Ohio to help build the new $20 billion Intel plant. It will have the next generation technology, including robot factory workers.
My overriding concern are the coming Biden sanctions when the CCP makes its move. The embargo of Chinese pharmaceuticals will cost untold American lives. I wish I could horde my arthritis medicine. I foresee America suffering real pain on the business end of DC’s sanctions club again.
Very good points. It will be decades until China has a military that could invade Taiwan.
Consider air superiority. China’s airforce is mostly made up of Russian derived planes. Those same planes that have proved unable to fly regular sorties over Ukraine because of their vulnerability to SAM systems that are much less sophisticated than those Taiwan has.
We have some people there training the Taiwan soldiers.
China is definitely going to to take over, or re-unify with, Taiwan, whether they use a lot of military, a little, or none at all to do it, and they are going to do it while the current American regime is in power.
When dealing with communists, never underestimate their ability to do stupid...
I agree with you and would add:
Taiwan is a high-tech, manufacturing, freedom-loving, wealthy, island nation.
High-tech weapons would make a Seaborne Invasion impossible.
Anti-ship missiles would keep China’s large warships outside of artillery range. Landing craft could be destroyed by short range, hand-held missiles such as Javelin.
Surface to Air missiles (Patriot and THAAD) would make it impossible for China to establish a no-fly zone impossible.
Taiwan’s cruise missiles could effectively shut down key logistics on China’s coast.
High Value Asset Protection (HVAP). Taiwan most likely would have point defense systems, such as Iron Dome, to protect key infrastructure.
All of the above certainly add to your Reality Check.
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