Reality Check
Russia, one of the world’s “super powers” having a border with Ukraine, and more soldiers, planes, tanks, and ships then the Ukraine got their ass handed to them when combat began.
To invade Taiwan China would need to organize an invasion equal to D Day in WWII (which took years of planning).
Unlike Ukraine, Taiwan has been preparing the battle field for decades. As I understand it there only a few beaches suitable for landing craft and because of the weather only a few times during the year a fleet could cross the channel between the two countries.
The channel is relatively shallow and well patrolled by air, surface ships and submarines.
Taiwan itself is relatively small and has a mountain range running the length of the island effectively dividing it in two. I don’t know for a fact but I think we can assume that many caves have been created within that mountain range and stocked with supplies and equipment.
You can not simply tell your military to invade another country and expect it to be done quickly. Staging areas have to be created and men and supplies have to be brought to those areas which would soon become known by human and satellite intelligence.
One of the last points is that the Chinese Army is not very good. Mostly young men drafted for a set time, their Army spend more time as cheap labor for the government then it does training for war.
The final point is China is going broke. They don’t have the cash flow they had before they released the virus and like many newly rich people they have spent more then they had coming in using western banks and companies as ATMs.
So will China invade Taiwan - who knows, it would not be the best thing they could do. Could they take Taiwan - again who knows, perhaps but it would be costly.
While the US may do nothing to help, there are other nations in the region that would.
I would say I don’t think China will invade Taiwan but then I did not think Putin would invade Ukraine either. Sometimes nation leaders make ignorant decision based on lies they have been told.
China does not lack for money.
It has overpriced apartments that need to be reduced in price to be affordable to typical Chinese workers.
It has a housing affordability problem like the USA, but it has the housing already built.
When dealing with communists, never underestimate their ability to do stupid, monstrous things. As communists, I don’t believe they care one iota about the human cost of war with Taiwan, and if they inflict tremendous damage to the industrial base of Taiwan they could care less as long as they can gain control. Applying logical thinking to a communist is almost never a winning strategy. Their religion is communism, and advancing that and their control takes precedent over any other consideration. The communists in this country are the perfect examples.
Very good points. It will be decades until China has a military that could invade Taiwan.
Consider air superiority. China’s airforce is mostly made up of Russian derived planes. Those same planes that have proved unable to fly regular sorties over Ukraine because of their vulnerability to SAM systems that are much less sophisticated than those Taiwan has.
China is definitely going to to take over, or re-unify with, Taiwan, whether they use a lot of military, a little, or none at all to do it, and they are going to do it while the current American regime is in power.
I agree with you and would add:
Taiwan is a high-tech, manufacturing, freedom-loving, wealthy, island nation.
High-tech weapons would make a Seaborne Invasion impossible.
Anti-ship missiles would keep China’s large warships outside of artillery range. Landing craft could be destroyed by short range, hand-held missiles such as Javelin.
Surface to Air missiles (Patriot and THAAD) would make it impossible for China to establish a no-fly zone impossible.
Taiwan’s cruise missiles could effectively shut down key logistics on China’s coast.
High Value Asset Protection (HVAP). Taiwan most likely would have point defense systems, such as Iron Dome, to protect key infrastructure.
All of the above certainly add to your Reality Check.