Instead, I think they will gradually ratchet up an air and sea blockade, and dare the US Navy to break it. Our warships will be in CCP missile range long before they can approach Taiwan.
Will our submarines attempt to take out the blockading PLAN warships? Doubtful. That's WW3.
In the end, I think the Taiwanese billionaires will cut a deal with the CCP, and accept a "process" for gradual CCP control, in return for preserving their personal wealth.
Reality Check
Russia, one of the world’s “super powers” having a border with Ukraine, and more soldiers, planes, tanks, and ships then the Ukraine got their ass handed to them when combat began.
To invade Taiwan China would need to organize an invasion equal to D Day in WWII (which took years of planning).
Unlike Ukraine, Taiwan has been preparing the battle field for decades. As I understand it there only a few beaches suitable for landing craft and because of the weather only a few times during the year a fleet could cross the channel between the two countries.
The channel is relatively shallow and well patrolled by air, surface ships and submarines.
Taiwan itself is relatively small and has a mountain range running the length of the island effectively dividing it in two. I don’t know for a fact but I think we can assume that many caves have been created within that mountain range and stocked with supplies and equipment.
You can not simply tell your military to invade another country and expect it to be done quickly. Staging areas have to be created and men and supplies have to be brought to those areas which would soon become known by human and satellite intelligence.
One of the last points is that the Chinese Army is not very good. Mostly young men drafted for a set time, their Army spend more time as cheap labor for the government then it does training for war.
The final point is China is going broke. They don’t have the cash flow they had before they released the virus and like many newly rich people they have spent more then they had coming in using western banks and companies as ATMs.
So will China invade Taiwan - who knows, it would not be the best thing they could do. Could they take Taiwan - again who knows, perhaps but it would be costly.
While the US may do nothing to help, there are other nations in the region that would.
I would say I don’t think China will invade Taiwan but then I did not think Putin would invade Ukraine either. Sometimes nation leaders make ignorant decision based on lies they have been told.
The second “system” was for the former British colony of Hong Kong.
It was a 20-year frosting of freedom on a cake of communism.
China will eventually control Taiwan. The cheapest strategy is to begin the great brain drain now. Move the English-speaking Taiwanese that don’t want to live under CCP rule to central Ohio to help build the new $20 billion Intel plant. It will have the next generation technology, including robot factory workers.
We have some people there training the Taiwan soldiers.