Instead, I think they will gradually ratchet up an air and sea blockade, and dare the US Navy to break it. Our warships will be in CCP missile range long before they can approach Taiwan.
Will our submarines attempt to take out the blockading PLAN warships? Doubtful. That's WW3.
In the end, I think the Taiwanese billionaires will cut a deal with the CCP, and accept a "process" for gradual CCP control, in return for preserving their personal wealth.
A blockade might result in the Taiwanese taking out the Three Gorges Dam. There are other nations besides the US interested in not seeing Taiwan invaded. It’s a pretty bright line. So far China has not been interested in conquest.
They take Taiwan and every country in the region is on notice. Their intelligence of China is likely far better than ours as well.
If Chinese hardware is in the same operational shape as the Russians, they will have issues. Also, once you take something, you have to hold it.
China gaining control of chip fab plants means chip fab will no longer every be sourced from china. Neither will anything else. They know that, which is why they have only talked about invading, and not invaded.
My overriding concern are the coming Biden sanctions when the CCP makes its move. The embargo of Chinese pharmaceuticals will cost untold American lives. I wish I could horde my arthritis medicine. I foresee America suffering real pain on the business end of DC’s sanctions club again.