Figure 1. Daily number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Uttar Pradesh between 4 March 2020 and 5 October 2021. Daily new confirmed cases are presented as the rolling 7-day average. Data and image from covid19india.org.
Posted on 01/01/2022 9:14:39 AM PST by SeekAndFind
FULL CLAIM:
"The most populated state in India just declared they are officially COVID-19 free after promoting widespread use of the safe proven medicine"
In mid-September 2021, a similar claim that the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh had become COVID-19 free, proving the effectiveness of [the] ‘deworming drug’ Ivermectin” spread on outlets, including One America News Network (OAN), The True Defender, and Gateway Pundit. Versions of the claim received more than 100,000 interactions on social media platforms like Facebook, Instagram, Reddit, and Twitter, according to the social media analytics tool CrowdTangle.
The government of Uttar Pradesh started recommending the use of ivermectin to prevent and treat mild COVID-19 patients in August 2020. By comparing the epidemiological data in Uttar Pradesh with other Indian states and the U.S., these outlets suggested that ivermectin is more effective than COVID-19 vaccines to control the pandemic. However, no scientific evidence supports this claim, as we will explain below.
According to data from covid19india.org, a project spearheaded by volunteers dedicated to documenting COVID-19 statistics using multiple official sources, Uttar Pradesh suffered two COVID-19 waves peaking around mid-September 2020 and end-April 2021 (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Daily number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Uttar Pradesh between 4 March 2020 and 5 October 2021. Daily new confirmed cases are presented as the rolling 7-day average. Data and image from covid19india.org.
In September 2021, the regional government announced a 99% decline in the number of cases that some linked to ivermectin recommendations. However, Uttar Pradesh isn’t “COVID-19 free”, as some outlets claimed (see examples here and here). Although the state reported only 147 active COVID-19 cases as of 7 October 2021, only 37 of its 75 districts have been declared free of COVID-19.
Furthermore, the difference between the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and the percentage of the population with antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 (seroprevalence) indicates that India is largely undercounting SARS-CoV-2 infections. This underreporting is unevenly distributed among regions, making it difficult to compare the epidemiological situation in different states.
For example, Kerala currently accounts for about half of the new COVID-19 cases in India. OAN and Gateway Pundit claimed that this was proof that this state, which they described as “over-dependent on vaccines and less dependent on Ivermectin”, failed to control COVID-19 cases. However, estimates from July 2021 based on seroprevalence studies indicated that, at that time, Kerala had a far more effective testing strategy than Uttar Pradesh. While Kerala detected one COVID-19 case every six, Uttar Pradesh only detected one case every 100. This means that Kerala doesn’t necessarily have more COVID-19 cases than Uttar Pradesh, but rather might have detected a higher proportion of them.
Simply because two events happened at the same time doesn’t necessarily mean that one caused the other. In other words, correlation alone doesn’t imply causation. Instead, this correlation can be coincidental or the result of a third “confounding factor” that affects the other two events. For instance, the fact that drownings increase at the same time that ice cream consumption doesn’t mean that eating ice cream causes drowning. What happens is that both events are more frequent when the weather is hot, which is the confounding factor.
Likewise, the ivermectin recommendation didn’t necessarily cause the current drop in COVID-19 cases in Uttar Pradesh, which can be due to other factors. In an article for The Conversation, epidemiologist Rajib Dasgupta explained that the sharp decline in COVID-19 cases in June 2021 might be due to the high proportion of previously infected individuals, combined with COVID-19 vaccination and increased testing.
Indeed, the fourth nationwide seroprevalence study conducted by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) in June and July 2021 showed that 67.6% of the population over the age of six had antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 as a result of either vaccination or previous infection. This figure is much higher than in the previous three national serosurveys (0.7% in May-June 2020, 7.1% in August-September 2020, and 24.1% in December 2020-January 2021)[1].
While previous infections account for a proportion of this high seropositivity rate, COVID-19 vaccination also plays an important role. As of 7 October 2021, almost 40% of the Indian population received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, and 18% is fully vaccinated, according to Our World in Data. Based on data collected between April and August 2021, Indian public health experts found that a single dose of the COVID-19 vaccine is “96.6 percent effective in preventing death”.
The fact that many people have antibodies against the virus means that a large proportion of the population is protected from disease to a certain extent, reducing the chances of new infections happening. In late July 2021, an article in the Hindustan Times reported that Uttar Pradesh was one of the states with the highest seropositivity rate (71%).
Interestingly, Kerala had the lowest seropositivity rate (44.4%). Notably, at that time, 35% of its population had received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine and almost 20% were fully vaccinated. These statistics taken together suggest that the seropositivity was mainly the result of vaccination, not infection. This suggests that Kerala was more effective at slowing the spread of the virus in the early stages of the pandemic than in the rest of the country. In a New York Times article published in May 2021, health experts explained that this result was due to a combination of high investment in healthcare and rigorous testing and contact tracing strategies from the beginning of the pandemic.
Finally, OAN claimed that ivermectin allowed Uttar Pradesh to control COVID-19 “without the need of lockdowns” and other restrictions. This is false. The administration of Uttar Pradesh did implement restrictions to curb the spread of the virus, including a complete lockdown on 30 April 2021. The lockdown was extended several times across May 2021, followed by night and weekend restrictions until September 2021.
Uttar Pradesh’s government did release guidelines recommending ivermectin to treat mild COVID-19 patients in August 2020. However, this recommendation isn’t on its own proof that the Uttar Pradesh population used the drug more than populations in other states.
Furthermore, ivermectin has been promoted throughout the country at some point during the pandemic, particularly in some states such as Goa. And during the second COVID-19 surge, India’s Ministry of Health & Family Welfare included ivermectin as a possible treatment for patients with mild COVID-19. On 17 May 2021, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) followed suit, although it acknowledged the low quality of evidence supporting ivermectin use in COVID-19 patients. But like in the case of Uttar Pradesh, we don’t know whether these recommendations translated into greater ivermectin use among the population.
OAN’s claim that ivermectin is one of the “safest, most effective medicines in the world” is also misleading. This status only applies to the concentrations and conditions recommended for treating parasitic infections, not as an antiviral in COVID-19 patients.
Public health agencies, including the World Health Organization and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, warn about the lack of clear evidence supporting claims about ivermectin’s effectiveness in reducing disease severity, hospitalization, or mortality in COVID-19 patients. Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz, an epidemiologist at the University of Wollongong in Australia, explained in his blog that most of the studies so far evaluating the effectiveness of ivermectin against COVID-19 have important methodological limitations, including small sample sizes and a small number of events.
Notably, one of the studies that contributed to positive assessments of ivermectin as a COVID-19 treatment was withdrawn in July 2021 over ethical concerns. As Health Feedback explained on numerous occasions (here, here, here, and here), more reliable studies didn’t find a benefit of the drug in COVID-19 patients. In a July 2021 Cochrane review of 14 previous studies, the authors concluded, “we are uncertain whether ivermectin reduces or increases mortality compared to no treatment”[2]. Given the lack of evidence supporting ivermectin’s use, the ICMR removed this drug from the September 2021 update of its COVID-19 treatment guidelines.
The claim that Uttar Pradesh is now COVID-19 free due to the use of ivermectin is inaccurate and unsupported by scientific evidence. Uttar Pradesh isn’t entirely free of COVID-19, and comparisons with other states are challenging due to differences in testing capacity. Furthermore, many factors other than ivermectin use could have influenced the course of the second COVID-19 wave in Uttar Pradesh, including restrictions and immunity from previous infection and vaccination.
In addition, the quality of evidence supporting ivermectin use in COVID-19 patients is very low. For this reason, public health authorities don’t recommend the use of ivermectin for preventing or treating COVID-19 outside of clinical trials. Given all these uncertainties, we can’t determine whether ivermectin played any role at all in the decline of COVID-19 cases in Uttar Pradesh.
https://www.mhlw.go.jp/search.html?q=ivermectin&cx=005876357619168369638%3Aydrbkuj3fss&cof=FORID%3A9&ie=UTF-8&sa=
診療の手引き www.mhlw.go.jp › content サムネイル画像 ファイル形式: PDF/Adobe Acrobat 2021/07/29 ... Ivermectin for the treatment of COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. Clin Infect Dis 2021.
Ⅲ－④－11 www.mhlw.go.jp › file › 06-Seisakujouhou-11120000-Iyakushokuhinkyoku サムネイル画像 ファイル形式: PDF/Adobe Acrobat イベルメクチン(Ivermectin). 0.5%外用剤(ローション). 販 売 名. SkliceR. (米). 会 社 名. Sanofi Pasteur,Inc. 国内関連学会. 日本皮膚科学会、日本臨床皮膚科医 ...
“Let anyone who wishes to take the drug take it, and have those who believe CNN that IVM is nothing more than a horse dewormer can join a control group.”
That’s crazy talk.
L
Start about five minutes before that and you will hear Dr Malone state unequivocally that both Hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin ARE effective against Covid and the US government IS actively suppressing this information.
Dr Malone also states unequivocally that getting The Jab is riskier if you already have natural immunity (says it's "Nuckin' Futz" to get jabbed it you have natural immunity). Those who have natural immunity are 2-4x more likely to have adverse reaction to The Jab, and >140 studies have shown that natural immunity is several times more effective than any vaccine (27x more effective against being re-infected).
If you can spare the time there is a mass of incredibly information in the first 90 minutes of that video.
“So the conclusion is that they don’t know?”
*****
Seems to me the conclusion is yes, they are virtually free of covid, yes, they used ivermectin widespread, but no, we don’t know if that’s why they are almost free of covid, it could have been something else.
Apparently my wife’s best friend wasn’t one of those who could have appreciated your vaxx shilling since she died of the evil you promote 6 weeks after getting the jab.
Shame on you.
No, it’s not the doctors’ fault directly. They were threatened by the AMA with losing their license if they used it. Blame the CDC and AMA for banning Ivermectin.
————-
Your moral ground is built on shifting sand. I guess by your “ reasoning”, the Nazi SS, camp guards, deadly medical experiments, etc….are not at fault, just following orders Sir! The Nuremberg war crime trials proved different. I guess the historic Stalin purges were okay to. At 63, I have many first hand accounts by my parents who fled both the Nazi and the Soviet atrocities.
You are a youngster I assume.
Yikes! My Japanese is nonexistent!
Could this be it, translated to Japanese? English version here:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34181716/
LOL, yeah sure.
ColoCdn wrote: “Apparently my wife’s best friend wasn’t one of those who could have appreciated your vaxx shilling since she died of the evil you promote 6 weeks after getting the jab.”
Do you have a credible basis for blaming the vaccine?
An interesting position, considering you posted without comment.
Let’s all meet again here in 5-10 years, if you’re still around.
Wow.
Just wow.
You’ve become that hardened!?
I feel great pity for you.
But, just to satisfy your hardened, soul-sick heart, yes I do have the most credible basis for my statement.
zipper wrote: “Let’s all meet again here in 5-10 years, if you’re still around.”
My odds of being around are far greater than yours (assuming of course that you’re not vaccinated).
Sez you, newbie…
Actually, you’d be wrong. I’ll be 79 in a few months. I said nothing about Stalin, Nazis, or Nuremberg. Perhaps you need to read the main article, the OP, and my response again.
Here is your thread from 12/31 with Dr. Malone talking about this (thank you for posting it):
Dr. Robert Malone Bombshell: After Meeting With Biden, India’s Prime Minister Modi Covered Up Uttar Pradesh’s Miracle Covid Treatment - Ivermectin
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4025840/posts
Some relevant excerpts:
“The virus was just ripping through Uttar Pradesh,” Dr. Malone said. “It has almost the same population as the United States. It’s huge, okay, dense, urban, poor, all the characteristics of a stereotype of the Indian countryside. The virus was just ripping through there causing all kinds of death and disease.
“And the decision was made out of desperation in that province to deploy early treatments as packages widely throughout the province, and it included a number of agents. The composition has not been formally disclosed. It was done in coordination with WHO and whatever was in those packages was rumored to include Ivermectin.”
“There was a specific visit of Biden to Modi and a decision was made in the Indian government not to disclose the contents of those packages that were being deployed in Uttar Pradesh, which they’re still there, and Uttar Pradesh is flatlined right now,” Dr. Malone said. “The rest of the world is yelling about Omicron and hospitalizations — well, South Africa isn’t — but Uttar Pradesh is still flatlined in terms of deaths.”
Who ya gonna believe? Malone’s got my vote.
You should be on your 21st-41st “booster” by then….or not
Kitasato University Hospital worked on a doctor-led midstage clinical trial, the results of which are not yet available. Kowa Co. has recently launched a final-phase clinical trial. The Tokyo Medical Association has also extended its support to Kowa’s trial. At the height of Japan’s fifth wave in mid-August, its president, Haruo Ozaki, proposed the emergency use of ivermectin to deal effectively with the pandemic. “Although an examination is necessary by conducting a clinical trial properly, under a strained situation like this, I think we’ve reached a stage where it’s OK to have the authorization issued to use ivermectin on patients after getting their informed consent,” he told reporters on Aug. 13.
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