Posted on 07/18/2021 6:44:47 AM PDT by bert
The media are all concerned with inflation. Prices are in fact increasing, some increases seem exponential. However, one component has not inflated. Food prices in the Food City survey have remained pretty constant.
What will be the results of a Pelosi/Biden government?
Many think there will be inflation. Milton Friedman taught us that “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it cannot occur without a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” The $2Trillion covid relief plus the !5% minimum wage plus the forgiveness of college loans all pump money into the economy.
Those actions are the very definition of monetary phenomena. The Bureau of Economic Analysis keeps us informed on the inflation rate but fails in one respect. The inflation information provided leaves out food. So, in the era of Pelosi/Biden induced inflation, bert has developed a basket of 20 common food products and will track prices and compute the inflation rate on the basket total and each individual item at a one month interval. The reason given for excluding food in the BEA inflation figure is because there are so many variables that effect prices that monetary inflation gets lost in the shuffle. So, there will be no attempt to correct for other variables. One we know that is already happening is China. China is in terrible food shape. Crop failure, massive flooding, swine disease and poor management of stock piles have forced China to import phenomenally large quantities of soy beans and corn. Brazil is sold out of soy beans. American farmers will pick up all he slack.
There does not seem to be much China induced food price inflation to date.
Being bert and being conservative, I choose to ignore China and blame all the food price increases on Pelosi/Biden
The sixth monthly food inflation presentation is posted below. There is not much inflation noted for June.
There is in progress significant inflation in various components of the Consumer Price Index other than food. The anticipated food inflation has simply not occurred as evidenced by the actual survey of prices for the 20 items on the list.
A search for a graphical presentation of the inflation of the various CPI components did not yield a meaningful graphic. Perhaps someone with a better grasp of the overall situation can post one.
| Item Cost | Measure | January | July | Increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bread | 2# Loaf | $1.69 | $1.69 | 0% |
| Eggs | 1 dozen | $$1.99 | $1.79 | -10% |
| Bacon | 12 ounces | $4.99 | $4.99 | 0% |
| Ground Round | 1 pound pkg | $4.19 | $5.99 | 43% |
| Hot Dogs Oscar Mayer | 10 count | $2.99 | $2.99 | 0% |
| Zesta Saltine Crackers | 1 Box | $1.49 | $2.49 | 34% |
| Campbell’s Tomato Soup | Can | $1.00 | $1.25 | 25% |
| Le Suer Green Peas | Can | $1.89 | $1.89 | 0% |
| Campbell’s Pork and Beans | Can | $0.69 | $0.69 | 0% |
| Kellogg’s Frosted Flakes | 13.5 oz Box | $2.99 | $2.99 | -16% |
| Pic Sweet Frozen Corn | 28 Oz | $3.29 | $3.29 | 0% |
| Holly Farms Chicken Breast | Per Pound | $1.99 | $1.99 | 0% |
| New York Select Strip | per pound | $11.99 | $11.99 | 0% |
| Milk 2% | per Gallon | $3.99 | $3.99 | -7.5% |
| Water | 6 pack | $3.99 | $3.99 | 0% |
| Maxwell House Coffee | 11.5 Oz | $3.99 | $3.99 | 0% |
| Coca Cola | 12- 12 Oz | $5.99 | $5.99 | 0% |
| Budweiser Beer | 6 pack 12 Oz | $7.29 | $7.29 | 0% |
| McDonalds Big Mac | Each | $4.29 | $4.59 | 6.5% |
| Basket Total | $75.37 | |||
| Percent Increase | 3.3 % |
The various grocery items are those in common usage. Both National and Store brands are represented. Prices are taken from the local grocery store website and are current on the fifteenth of the current month.
Why is it that when some products, for instance, 2% milk sells for the same price it shows a 7.5% decrease?
Same for a lot of items...
Its the meat. Its at least 25%-40% higher. That’s what jacks up our bill.
I haven’t seen a noticeable increase in food prices since all the fearmongering posts began on here.
Just a comment: a lot of what used to be 15oz cans are now 14.5oz. Also, a pound of bacon is often 14oz — but that varies by brand.
Meant to say 16oz. Fat fingered the ‘6’.
FYI
You must be vegan. Meat has doubled. The cheapest beef chuck roast at Walmart is $6.47/lb. vs. pre covid at $3-something. Pre-covid boneless pork loin was $1-something/lb vs. $3.38/lb today.
This time last year, 18 count eggs were $1.63 vs $2.05 today.
Canned tomatoes were 50 cents on my last grocery trip but are now 72 cents.
“Its the meat. Its at least 25%-40% higher. That’s what jacks up our bill.”
That’s right. Beef has been going up for awhile. Chicken has just started to go up. Pork prices seem relatively stable. I can still buy bacon on sale.
Pre-fearmongering 4 oz frozen tilapia fillets were 70 cents each vs 83 cents today.
*** The cheapest beef chuck roast at Walmart is $6.47/lb. vs. pre covid at $3-something. ***
I just bought over 35# of sirloins, flat irons, cube steaks, ground beef, roasts, short ribs, etc, for $125.00 from the folks in Mason, TX. It is choice plus. After I bought a half of beef from them a year ago, I’m not going back to Supermarket beef.
Meanwhile WM coffee creamer has gone from $1.00 to $1.84, as has most stuff.
Several of the percentages listed don’t reflect the change in price correctly.
Meat has way more than doubled by me. 85/15 ground beef is almost $9/lb here. Looked at Ribeye Steaks yesterday, $19/lb. Passed on both.
Canned Tomato's are over $1/can here. If you buy the Hunts brand expect at least $1.50. Eggs are $2.49/doz and a loaf of generic store brand bread is $1.89.
I've been on a weight loss diet since April. My grocery bill back then was about $65. I buy the same staples weekly and rotate fruits and vegetables that I eat. I eat a lot of 4-5 veggie salads with 4oz of chicken for protein in them for dinner. Breakfasts for me are oatmeal and fruit, lunch is a veggie lettuce wrap and my snacks are typically nuts and yogurt with fruit.
What used to be $65 was $135 yesterday.
The food inflation is real and it sucks. Anyone who says it's not happening is a damn' liar.
That is very expensive. I dunno what state you live in, perhaps up north or on the coast. But, prime hamburger runs $5.20 per pound, and even 'grass fed' is %0.45 per oz in south Texas. Prime ribeye around $19 per pound, choice $14.41, and select $12.84.
I also want to add, I use www.mygrocerydeals.com, to find local deals and such. Sometimes something I ‘need’ pops up. Good luck, we’ll need it.
bert:" The Bureau of Economic Analysis keeps us informed on the inflation rate but fails in one respect.
The inflation information provided leaves out food.(Say What ?; Emphasis mine)"
"So, in the era of Pelosi/Biden induced inflation, bert has developed a basket of 20 common food products and will track prices and compute the inflation rate on the basket total
and each individual item at a one month interval.
The reason given for excluding food in the BEA inflation figure is because there are so many variables that effect prices that monetary inflation gets lost in the shuffle.
(My comment) Food is volatile, and varies according to the season, and conditions of nature, according to tillable land available (rain, snow, hail, flooding, etc.)
One we know that is already happening is China. China is in terrible food shape.
Crop failure, massive flooding, swine disease and poor management of stock piles have forced China to import phenomenally large quantities of soy beans and corn.
Brazil is sold out of soy beans.
American farmers will pick up all he slack."
Even cat and dog food prices are up.
We are having a very good year for crops here in Michigan.
Last year a lot of fallow fields. This year it is a rarity.
Winter wheat is being harvested now and it looks good. Beans are nice and corn looks terrific.
sorry.....
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