Posted on 04/29/2021 8:37:16 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
Your daily new cases drop from nearly 10,000 per day to 86. Your deaths drop from nearly 100 per day to 1. All while your neighbors see cases and deaths either hold steady or rise.
If the US vaccine distribution wasn’t delayed, you’d have a good case to make regarding similarities to the Israeli stats. But the vax administration delay is real and substantial. To say the vax administration resulted in the sharp SARS case & mortality decline is disingenuous.
I’m not arguing the vax pros, cons, nor anecdotes. The US stats do not yet make the vax case. And perhaps the stats will eventually favor the vaccines.
Thank you for posting the facts.
You’re quite the specious blowhard.
I provide factual information with links to authoritative sources. You reply with childish name-calling.
I think people can figure out who the trustworthy source of information is here.
Another KOZAK of BS but with pictures for THE even more pathetic Branch COVIDIANS.
Vaccines prevent disease. They don’t reduce symptoms.
Thank you for the additional and corrective data, however, if you want to be accurate then you should not be misconstruing what I provided as being a denial of Covid-19 as being real and causing increased deaths. But I am wary of the CDC as a government agency which needs to support its overreaching restrictions. Consider its specious conclusions on masking here: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7010e3.htm. Yet my main objection is to the all-ages long term restrictions (such as requiring masks whenever and wherever one is outside in public here in MA, regards of being alone or playing sports) and irrational fearfulness that it promotes.
And as the CDC states on this excess deaths study, "The causes shown here were chosen based on analyses of the most prevalent comorbid conditions reported on death certificates where COVID-19 was listed as a cause of death...reported counts are weighted to account for potential underreporting in the most recent weeks. This method is useful in detecting when jurisdictions may have higher than expected numbers of deaths, but cannot be used to determine whether a given jurisdiction has fewer deaths than expected given that the data are provisional...the total number of excess deaths in the US computed directly for the US using the Farrington algorithms was approximately 25% lower than the number calculated by summing across the jurisdictions with excess deaths. And "Deaths due to external causes (i.e. injuries) or unknown causes are excluded," and "Deaths due to all other natural causes were excluded" (under Cause of Death) then there is some degree of interpretation and uncertainty involved.
And what I substantiated was the broad criteria whereby deaths can easily be attributed to Covid when in reality that was not necessarily the cause, though the excess death data does support Covid as being the main cause for the excess.
"Problem is, heart disease deaths in 2020 did not drop. They were just above normal levels. (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) "
I do not see that for the whole period in the maze of tables, but presuming your figures are correct then you must deal with the conflicting stats cited by the Hopkins researcher.
"Know what did go way up? Total deaths. By over 18% from 2019 to 2020. Normal year-over-year increases in total deaths are 0.3% - 0.7%. 523,000 more deaths, out of nowhere. That’s World War II numbers."
Except in stark contrast to the 1918 flu, relatively few few young died due to Covid-19, with the vast majority being the age and those with 2 or more comorbidities. And when over 70% of Americans are overweight or obese (over 40% the latter [https://www.cdc.gov/media/pressrel/r991026.htm]) and this condition is a primary factor relative to serious and fatal COVID-19 infections A CDC study (released 3.8–21) found about 78% of people that were hospitalized, needed a ventilator or died from Covid-19 were overweight or obese. [https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/08/covid-cdc-study-finds-roughly-78percent-of-people-hospitalized-were-overweight-or-obese.html?__source=sharebar%7Ctwitter&par=sharebar] Another study finds that more than 77 percent of 17,000 hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the United States had excess weight or obesity.[https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.17.20156265v3] and another study found that people who didn’t exercise regularly prior to contracting COVID-19 were more likely to die,[https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/early/2021/04/07/bjsports-2021-104080] while some 42% of U.S. adults reported packing on undesired weight since the start of the pandemic.[https://dailycaller.com/2021/03/22/americans-packed-on-weight-pandemic/]
Meanwhile based upon a hard to find CDC estimate of the estimated total Covid infections in the US (Dec. 11) then the IFR for Covid figured out to be 0.33, and lower now, thank God.
" And no, it wasn’t suicides. Those were down 5% in 2020 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/leahcampbell/2021/04/23/suicide-rates-actually-went-down-in-2020-heres-what-parents-need-to-know/?sh=124547e766d1)"
Which again is based upon the CDC reports and analysis over the whole period (I presume), but this pertains to the population as a whole, not to specific groups or the increase in the latter months, while there are studies which indicate a rise in suicidal behavior in youths higher during COVID-19 closures than in 2019[https://www.aappublications.org/news/aapnewsmag/2020/12/16/pediatricssuicidestudy121620.full-text.pdf] and as the pandemic goes on. [https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01042-z]
“I provide factual information with links to authoritative sources. You reply with childish name-calling.”
I said nothing about this, did I?
“I think people can figure out who the trustworthy source of information is here.”
Again, I did not address this at all, did I?
I do want to be accurate and I did indeed misconstrue your intent. So that's my fault! I can say that I've been closely watching these stats over the past year and I haven't seen anything altered since Biden took over. The numbers I've referenced here have been the same since last year when President Trump was in office.
"Yet my main objection is to the all-ages long term restrictions (such as requiring masks whenever and wherever one is outside in public here in MA, regards of being alone or playing sports) and irrational fearfulness that it promotes."
I share your objection here. The guidelines are silly in light of the scientific data we've had for nearly a year at this point. They've been absurdly slow to make any updates based on the actual data. No fomite transmission, nearly no outdoor transmission; update the guidelines to something that make actual sense.
"I do not see that for the whole period in the maze of tables, but presuming your figures are correct then you must deal with the conflicting stats cited by the Hopkins researcher."
I could paste the screenshot, but what you need to do is scroll down to the table, click the radio button for "Weekly Number of Deaths by Cause Group", then click the Update Dashboard button. From there, the various groups are displayed with 2020, 2021 (so far), and the previous 5 years for context.
"Except in stark contrast to the 1918 flu, relatively few few young died due to Covid-19, with the vast majority being the age and those with 2 or more comorbidities. And when over 70% of Americans are overweight or obese (over 40% the latter [https://www.cdc.gov/media/pressrel/r991026.htm]) and this condition is a primary factor relative to serious and fatal COVID-19 infections A CDC study (released 3.8–21) found about 78% of people that were hospitalized, needed a ventilator or died from Covid-19 were overweight or obese. [https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/08/covid-cdc-study-finds-roughly-78percent-of-people-hospitalized-were-overweight-or-obese.html?__source=sharebar%7Ctwitter&par=sharebar] Another study finds that more than 77 percent of 17,000 hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the United States had excess weight or obesity.[https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.17.20156265v3] and another study found that people who didn’t exercise regularly prior to contracting COVID-19 were more likely to die,[https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/early/2021/04/07/bjsports-2021-104080] while some 42% of U.S. adults reported packing on undesired weight since the start of the pandemic.[https://dailycaller.com/2021/03/22/americans-packed-on-weight-pandemic/]"
Yes absolutely, but we can't just write off everyone who's fat, sick, or old (or all three), right? Still human life. Still worth protecting with reasonable precautions (I'm talking here about sensible guidelines to reduce transmission, vaccines, treatments, etc.)
"Meanwhile based upon a hard to find CDC estimate of the estimated total Covid infections in the US (Dec. 11) then the IFR for Covid figured out to be 0.33, and lower now, thank God."
Where are you seeing an updated IFR? By the figure in your link (114.5 million estimated infections against 589,222 current deaths that I'm grabbing from WoM), IFR is roughly 0.514%.
"Which again is based upon the CDC reports and analysis over the whole period (I presume), but this pertains to the population as a whole, not to specific groups or the increase in the latter months, while there are studies which indicate a rise in suicidal behavior in youths higher during COVID-19 closures than in 2019[https://www.aappublications.org/news/aapnewsmag/2020/12/16/pediatricssuicidestudy121620.full-text.pdf] and as the pandemic goes on. [https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01042-z]"
I was surprised to see an overall decline in suicides in 2020 (I think a lot of people were), but even if you jacked that up 20%, you're talking an additional 10,000 deaths. A drop in the bucket compared to the over 500,000 excess deaths across last year.
You said I was a “specious blowhard”. I didn’t take it as a term of endearment.
No reason why we can't see the same here in the U.S. If I'm the President, you haven't received your vaccine by now, it's on you.
“You said I was a “specious blowhard”. I didn’t take it as a term of endearment.”
Yes. I believe that was accurate in terms of your post.
They do both. Either prevent the disease, or make it less severe and shorter lasting by having your immune system trained in all instances for the possible infection.
We seem to have a lot of "new" definitions of what a vaccine is and is not in order to fit a certain narrative as of late.
Why some people are so invested in their alternate realities is beyond me...and in many cases it isn't even consistent from thread to thread.
Well the sharp declines began among the populations that were most vaccinated and vaccinated first. That’s a reality.
That can't be true. We've been told by this crowd there is no correlation between vaccination rates and infection rates...surely they aren't making that up for the sake of narrative...
That’s a fact.. the flu shot reduces the risk of flu illness by between 40% and 60% because there’s so many variants of flu’s and so many variants of flu shots. When you get a flu shot it’s against whatever flu they think may be most prevalent or what they think may work best for you.
It DOES NOT reduce the symptoms and you can still get the flu if you have the wrong shot.
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