Posted on 03/06/2021 4:24:39 AM PST by MtnClimber
The U.S. has had a slew of black swan events of late. The next one could be the worst.
The U.S. has had a slew of black swan events of late. For the purposes here, I'll define a black swan as having the following characteristics. First, it disrupts the equilibrium of society. Second, it is not commonly foreseen, and, if discussed at all prior to happening, it is discounted as highly improbable. Thirdly, in retrospect, the black swan seems to have been inevitable. I'm sure Nasim Nicholas Taleb would not object to such a description.
In chronological order, the black swans we've experienced in just the past five years are:
1) the surprise election of Donald J. Trump in 2016,
2) the Chinese-induced pandemic and the anti-science response of most government officials to it,
3) the acquiescence to and even open encouragement of the Antifa and BLM riots in the summer of 2020 by large segments of the Democrat party, and
4) the boldness and success of the election coup of 2020.
Each of these in its own way permanently changed the country. Of these four, only the first one — the election of Donald Trump — had a positive effect. The other three left America seriously damaged. Given the shape of the country, what has already transpired, and the deep polarization within society, there are more potential black swans on the horizon. The one I'd like to focus on is the financial shape of the government.
The current U.S. federal debt is over $27 trillion for a country with a GDP of $21 trillion. This is more befitting countries like Greece and Italy than the United States. And each year, our illustrious government continues to spend trillions more than it takes in.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
“how did you go bankrupt?
Slowly, then all at once.”
Other than Bezos, Fat Cat valuations have more to do with their stock valuations than their companies’ gross profits.
People are buying their stock as opposed to being ripped off by them. But since all these Fat Cats promoted the Scamdemic they should be held fully liable for the damage to the US economy and people.
The FBI already tried this gambit with the Mandalay Bay massacre.
Smells like the Plague of Justinian to me.
Well that’s just having some foresight. I had 36 mega rolls of toilet paper, bought a freezer and filled it with meat a few weeks before there were shortages. Pretty soon there was no TP, freezers or meat. My magical insight; I saw empty shelves in Italy.
If I was rich, I would have gotten richer too. That’s capitalism. Maybe I should have got 72 mega rolls and sold some for $5 a roll. I doubt Buffet was the only one but he’s up top so he’s the target.
Where do you plan on going? Do you have friends, or family there already?
Have spent time thinking about this and Not sure there’s anyplace that will miss what’s coming.
The Black Swan is Powell doing nothing to counter rising interest rates which will tank the markets. Welcome back Carter.
“Where do you plan on going? Do you have friends, or family there already?”
I’m not far enough along to disclose it publicly yet, but I am taking names here and promise to get back.
But all I’ll say is that don’t think the window for immigration to other countries will stay open forever, as we’re a big country and if there is a mass departure from a dying America, it will be difficult for other countries to pick all of us up. Same problem the Jews in Europe faced when they waited too long in the 1930s.
-- increased rate of growth of the money supply followed by a decrease in the rate of growth
-- increase in taxes
-- increased interest rates
-- credit crunch
“Black Swan”
“Perfect Storm”
“Once in a lifetime”
*******
Such bullshit terms. There is a big difference between “unexpected” and “unpredictable”. And between “impossible” and “unlikely”.
Rant over for now.
Black swans approaching:
Market crash
Martial law and the return of Donald J Trump.
As part of my job, I have access to current pricing of large numbers of basic chemicals and metals in various regions around the world. The increases in pricing since November are STAGGERING in almost every commodity. Not all.. but, I'd say more than 80%. In many cases, prices have double, or even tripled in just a few months.
The raw materials needed to make a car have increased >70% just in the past few months. Do you think auto makers are just going to sit back and watch their profit margins disappear? Hell no. Prices are going UP! And, it's going to be faster than anyone under the age of 50 have ever seen.
I'm actually a little surprised this hasn't happened already. Russia and China have been trying to do it for several years now. But, few countries have gone along with them.
I wonder if our later binge of profligate spending will push the Euroweenies to finally join them? It will be a HARD time for us.
I see the first one, but not the second.
I’m looking at copper which I use as a leading indicator. Provide some examples of staggering increases. I’m curious.
Visit your friendly neighborhood grocery, and a pound of bacon is 12 oz., a pound of Kielbasa is 13 or 14 oz.
Visit your friendly neighborhood building supply store, and you’ll discover that a gallon is now 3.6 quarts, and it takes 4.75 gallons to fill a 5-gallon bucket.
Just in China, since last July:
Copper is up about 60%, up to $9,500 per ton.
Nickel is up 60%
Ruthenium is up 30%
Lithium Carbonate is up 166%
Coal is up 30%
Since November, 2020:
Styrene monomer is up 100%
Benzene is up 125%
Xylenes up >50%
Propylene is up 90%
Polyethylene is up 45%
LDPE is up 80%
Urea is up 50%
Maleic Anhydride is up 90%
Methanol is up 66%
Ammonia is >40%
Oh... and, OIL is up 60%>
Lumber has gone crazy too I noticed at the Home Despot store the other day....
Visit your friendly neighborhood grocery, and a pound of bacon is 12 oz., a pound of Kielbasa is 13 or 14 oz.
—
Like the “pound” of coffee which is like 12 oz.
Does this portend something fowl!
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