Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April
WSJ ^ | 18 Feb 2021 | Marty Makary

Posted on 02/18/2021 4:17:43 PM PST by DUMBGRUNT

Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news.

In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.

...Antibody studies almost certainly underestimate natural immunity. Antibody testing doesn’t capture antigen-specific T-cells, which develop “memory” once they are activated by the virus. Survivors of the 1918 Spanish flu were found in 2008—90 years later—to have memory cells still able to produce neutralizing antibodies.

...But the consistent and rapid decline in daily cases since Jan. 8 can be explained only by natural immunity. Behavior didn’t suddenly improve over the holidays; Americans traveled more over Christmas than they had since March. Vaccines also don’t explain the steep decline in January. Vaccination rates were low and they take weeks to kick in.

...

(Excerpt) Read more at wsj.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Chit/Chat; Health/Medicine; Science
KEYWORDS: herdimmunity
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-48 next last
To: DUMBGRUNT

The Masks and the School Shutdowns are but two lagging indicators of COVID status and recovery.
The Masks will probably be the last vestige of lockdown to disappear, since many people are now emotionally invested in the ritual. Some would call it a compulsion.


21 posted on 02/18/2021 4:48:57 PM PST by lee martell
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: HartleyMBaldwin

So did conveniently timed cutbacks in mandatory testing...


22 posted on 02/18/2021 4:50:48 PM PST by mewzilla (Break out the mustard seeds. )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: DUMBGRUNT
But the consistent and rapid decline in daily cases since Jan. 8 can be explained only by natural immunity.

Baloney. The rapid decline in daily cases since January 8th is directly the result of the changed standards established by the WHO for documenting positive COVID-19 tests.

23 posted on 02/18/2021 4:57:13 PM PST by Alberta's Child ("And once in a night I dreamed you were there; I canceled my flight from going nowhere.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: DUMBGRUNT

Meanwhile, stunningly, there have been almost no cases of seasonal flu for a year! It’s a freaking miracle!


24 posted on 02/18/2021 4:58:52 PM PST by JennysCool (2020: Aging “world socialists” promoting their ideology by scaring the crap out of gullible people.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: DUMBGRUNT

I wonder if they will discontinue Flu shots now.


25 posted on 02/18/2021 5:06:37 PM PST by philetus (Keep doing what you always do and you'll eventually get what you deserve)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MAGAthon

for the Biden years!

17 Feb: RT: BBC names as new chair ex-Goldman Sachs banker who advised Boris Johnson and gave £400k to UK’s ruling party
https://www.rt.com/uk/515849-bbc-chair-banker-johnson-adviser/


26 posted on 02/18/2021 5:07:34 PM PST by MAGAthon
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Skywise

Not to mention the guidelises for what was considered a “Case” were tightened up considerably right about then.


27 posted on 02/18/2021 5:13:34 PM PST by moonhawk (And then the cock crowed for the third time....)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: patriot torch

Time will tell

And with past vaccine tests lasting 12 years... might take a while.


28 posted on 02/18/2021 5:14:17 PM PST by DUMBGRUNT ("The enemy has overrun us. We are blowing up everything. Vive la France!"Dien Bien Phu last message.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: MV=PY

I’ve been hearing about immunity since...
Being hearing impaired since RVN, that was extra fun for me.

Thanx


29 posted on 02/18/2021 5:17:37 PM PST by DUMBGRUNT ("The enemy has overrun us. We are blowing up everything. Vive la France!"Dien Bien Phu last message.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: lee martell

” since many people are now emotionally invested in the ritual. Some would call it a compulsion.”

With the MSM propaganda machine pushing the BS as fast as they can; how will they change directions?

Good propaganda needs a steady background to be believable.

“we have always been at war with Eastasia”


30 posted on 02/18/2021 5:26:54 PM PST by DUMBGRUNT ("The enemy has overrun us. We are blowing up everything. Vive la France!"Dien Bien Phu last message.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: moonhawk

Yeah - the death rate has nearly tripled since then too. (From 1% of cases to nearly 3%) coincidence?


31 posted on 02/18/2021 5:29:41 PM PST by Skywise
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: DUMBGRUNT

“rapid decline in daily cases since Jan. 8 can be explained only by natural immunity.”

That is probably one of a few significant factors (and it is significant).

It is also likely that COVID-19 hit its natural seasonal peak for the year. Most coronaviruses are seasonal.

The testing standard was drastically relaxed on inauguration day (coincidentally).

The vaccinations are disproportionally going to those most likely to have serious cases. Those shots started in November, and under two weeks later (before the second shot), significant resistance has developed. Hard to say how active health care providers may have been in the transmission of the disease (including among vulnerable populations), but they have largely moved off the table during this time, due to vaccination.

Treatment and prevention may have improved. Have more people started taking zinc? HCQ? Ivermectin?

Herd immunity may well have been the dominant factor in the cresting of the case load, but vaccination will become the overwhelming factor in the coming months.


32 posted on 02/18/2021 5:34:39 PM PST by BeauBo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: DUMBGRUNT

Herd immunity is not political immunity. Can we believe the controls will betaken off? or rather tightened and state controls of the more rigorous states federally imposed on the nation as a whole? The Left has total control of the reins and the buttons and the population is not reacting. It’s all Please, Daddy DC, don’t let me die!


33 posted on 02/18/2021 5:47:30 PM PST by arthurus ( covfefek |)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Skywise

Because nothing changed. Same number of cases, same number of deaths. But if you SAY, there are fewer cases then it will appear that a higher percentage of cases are dying.


34 posted on 02/18/2021 5:57:07 PM PST by moonhawk (And then the cock crowed for the third time....)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: grumpygresh
We won’t have herd immunity or resolution as long as politicians and criminals like Bill Gates can make money and gain power on the crisis.

Isn't that just amazing!

35 posted on 02/18/2021 6:14:19 PM PST by Grampa Dave (History, as we know it, is written by the winners not the losers! Who will be writing our history??)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: HartleyMBaldwin

They didn’t just change the cycle number. They also said there must be symptoms. Just like that all those “asymptomatic” cases went away.


36 posted on 02/18/2021 6:25:20 PM PST by sheana
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: DUMBGRUNT

No no no, you don’t understand. You must still wear your mask. Two if you’ve got ‘em.


37 posted on 02/18/2021 6:30:02 PM PST by lakecumberlandvet (Appeasement never works.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: RC one
I would argue that it is the dead of winter and nobody is really gathering anywhere for the virus to spread. When people to go out, they're masked up and social distancing

, Depends where you are I guess. Behaviors here were pretty open before the holidays, stayed open throughout, and opened up more lately. Regardless of the hype in the media, the peaks aren’t timed right for holiday get togethers. Not here, not in most places. And now everyone is behaving! Better than ever before, because it’s pretty cold now, unlike the cold it was four months ago when more restrictions were in place... I’ve got a bridge to sell...

38 posted on 02/18/2021 6:38:29 PM PST by !1776!
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: DUMBGRUNT

What crap!

We already have herd immunity here in the U.S....
Just look at how easily our communist rulers are trampling every aspect of (now) former American greatness and freedom...

The herd just wants its checks...
Nothing else matters...


39 posted on 02/18/2021 7:19:06 PM PST by SuperLuminal (Where is Joe McCarthy now that we desperately need him sober?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: RC one
it's certainly a safe bet that we'll see a drop in cases in April since that's when cases started to drop in wave #1 for whatever reasons.

It's mid February. Cases have already dropped dramatically. At this rate, there won't be any new cases in two weeks, never mind April.

Look at the new daily cases chart, not the daily deaths chart.

40 posted on 02/18/2021 8:13:55 PM PST by FreeReign (Never forget The Steal)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-48 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson