Posted on 02/18/2021 9:01:18 AM PST by SeekAndFind
A number of states are approaching the threshold needed for “herd immunity” from COVID-19, according to an analysis from Fundstrat, a financial research and consulting firm.
At least ten states may already have at least 50% of residents either vaccinated or previously infected with COVID-19, according to the firm’s analysis. Scientists have not reached a precise consensus on how many members of a population must be immune to the virus to have reached herd immunity, but common answers range from 60%-90%.
FUNDSTRAT: Slowly, “the US is getting to that threshold of presumable herd immunity,” as seen in this ranking of states by “combined penetration” (vaccinations + infections). “As we commented in the past, the key figure is the combined value >60% ..” @fundstrat pic.twitter.com/rZsS7oTUvt
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) February 17, 2021
North and South Dakota are the top two states on the list from Fundstrat, with approximately 64% and 62% of the residents in those states having been either infected with the virus or been vaccinated, according to the firm’s estimates. Fundstrat calculates the number of COVID-19 infections in a given state as the number of confirmed cases multiplied by a factor of four. (RELATED: WHO COVID-19 Investigator Tried To Hide Involvement In Pro-China Statement, Email Reveals)
Worth keeping an ???? on ???? https://t.co/vzBKXUayLQ
— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) February 17, 2021
Numerous scientists have said at various points during the pandemic that it’s almost certain there have been far more cases of COVID-19 in America than have been confirmed through testing. This is due to the number of mild or asymptomatic cases that individuals may not have sought testing for. The most aggressive of those estimates suggest that as many as eight or nine times as many people in America have gotten COVID-19 than have actually tested positive.
Other states at 50% or more in the Fundstrat estimate include Arizona, Rhode Island, Utah, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Indiana.
A rather meaningless term, statistically and medically.
RE: A rather meaningless term, statistically and medically.
Can you elaborate?
Simply adding the two figures is misleading. Some number of the people who have been infected previously with mild or asymptomatic cases have also been vaccinated. Many of them wouldn’t even know they had been infected previously.
Further, those who’ve had mild or asymptomatic cases have been shown to have low levels of neutralizing antibodies which quickly dissipate. The infection they experienced triggered a relatively weak immune response. They’re vulnerable to reinfection, particularly with the South African variant, which has shown a level of resistance to the neutralizing antibodies formed after infections from other variants.
The two vaccines currently authorized for use in the United States provide sufficient levels of neutralizing antibodies to protect against all known variants. The Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine does NOT provide significant protection against the South African variant, but it’s not terrible against the others.
Well, for one thing the true infection rate is unknown. Many people were infected that were not tested. This has to be the case, because the majority of people are asymptomatic that have the virus. Also, it is not known what herd immunity is defined as being for this. In general, it is usually defined as enough immunity to get the R0 lower than 1.
50% vaccinated?
How in the heck does that statistic translate into "herd immunity"?
Is there any medical proof, for this virus, that any such measure results in "herd immunity?
Herd immunity?
Moo!
Put us in the chutes.
There is no way I’m taking the “Bill Gates vaccine” - far more dangerous than the flu that has a 99.5% survivor rate.
Additionally, I haven’t had a cold or flu in years and years...and I’m a “seasoned citizen”.
We don’t get TV but I visited a buddy last night and on the news they were showing kids getting the vaccine. They’re “testing” it on kids to see if it’s ok to give it to them. They’re hoping it will lessen the symptoms if they get covid. Meanwhile, kids aren’t really affected by covid.
Insanity. Half the news was vaccine, vaccine, vaccine.
TPTB really really want everyone to get the vaccine and I don’t trust TPTB.
Took the flu vaccine once and it made me sicker than the flu ever has.
My wife started working at a nursing home 8-9 years ago and we got the flu every year, sometimes twice a year for a few years and then it stopped. We haven’t been sick in 4 years now. Guess we got every variant and are immune now.
I think we’ll just stick with that method.
The Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT) is the point at which enough individuals within a population are immune to a disease (either because of infection or vaccination) that each infection produces less than one transmission (new infection) on average (Rt). With an Rt of 1, each infected person spreads the disease to one other person on average, so the disease can continue to propagate. At an Rt value less than 1, cases dwindle toward zero.
We calculate the Herd Immunity Threshold using the R0, which is the number of new infections spawned - on average - from each infection in a population where nobody has any immunity through prior exposure or vaccination. The formula for HIT is 1-1/R0. The R0 for the original SARS-CoV-2 variant (from November 2019 - around February 2020) was around 1.8. 1-1/1.8 gives us 0.44 or 44%. In April 2020, a new variant that spread far more rapidly completely replaced the original variant in a matter of weeks across the globe. Its R0 is roughly 2.5, giving us a HIT of 60%. In Fall 2020, new variants in the UK and South Africa emerged. The R0 is still being narrowed down, but it's believed to be roughly 4.3-5.7, giving us a HIT of 77-82%. For reference, Measles has an R0 of 12-18 and seasonal flu has an R0 of 0.9-2.1.
"Is there any medical proof, for this virus, that any such measure results in "herd immunity?
There's nothing special about this virus, so basic rules of epidemiology apply. It spreads at a certain rate. If enough people are inoculated (through infection or vaccination), the virus can't find vulnerable hosts and it dies off.
At the current rate of infection and vaccination, the US will reach HIT by about July of this year. After that point, we'll see cases slowly decline toward zero. By the end of this year, the media will be reporting on individual cases of COVID-19 discovered because they'll be so few and far between.
RE: What does “herd immunity” mean? 50% vaccinated?
It says in the article:
Scientists have not reached a precise consensus on how many members of a population must be immune to the virus to have reached herd immunity, but common answers range from 60%-90%.
How does it apply to our situation, where we've been lied to about the number of "positive tests"?
Were people who's specimens were PCR'd to the 40th power actually sick?
Is the "vaccine" really contributing to the reduction in cases?
Looks to me like the Biden Inauguration was the real turning point for the corrupt data.
Who estimated the infection rate?
Official AZ estimates are like 11% or maybe 14%.
Far from 44% listed here.
Looks to me like some Democrat trying to badmouth Republican Governors. See all the Democratic run states on the bottom of the infection rate.
The RT-PCR test is a laboratory diagnostic tool used to determine whether SARS-CoV-2 is present at the point of collection. For those individuals who test positive with an RT-PCR test, the virus is present. When you say "actually sick", what you're looking for is a clinical diagnosis based on symptoms. The case definition for COVID-19 is looking for either one. 40% of COVID-19 cases (per the US CDC case definition for COVID-19, linked above) are asymptomatic, meaning they present no outward symptoms. 40% have mild symptoms, similar to a cold or allergies. 20% require some medical care. 5% become hospitalized. 3% go to the ICU. 0.65% die. Those numbers are a little old as some effective therapies (mostly monoclonal antibody therapy) are helping to reverse the course of the most severe cases.
"Is the "vaccine" really contributing to the reduction in cases?"
Not today's drops, no. We're at the end of the holiday wave. Most of the world experienced the same wave. What the vaccine does is prevent future waves and drive us to herd immunity. It also prevents variants like the South African variant from spreading among those who had mild or asymptomatic cases, as their levels of neutralizing antibodies are potentially too low to provide adequate protection against that one particular variant.
"Looks to me like the Biden Inauguration was the real turning point for the corrupt data."
The rates of new cases and new deaths followed the same bell curve path in the US and every other country, for each wave of this infection. It's the same basic curve seen in any disease where you have periodic outbreaks followed by lulls as conditions alter the virus' ability to spread. Joe Biden hasn't done anything to help matters. President Trump's Operation Warp Speed certainly did. With the help of the vaccines, we'll reach HIT some time in July and this thing will be over and done with.
I think you’re right: those case numbers don’t look right to me at all. Case numbers depend a lot on testing. Death numbers are a lot easier to work from. With an IFR of 0.65%, simply take the number of deaths and divide by .0065. Then divide by the population. That gives you a rough estimate of the total number of resolved cases, only missing the cases from the past couple weeks (average of about 12 days for cases to resolve one way or the other).
When you do that, who pops up to the top of the list? New Jersey, New York, and Massachusetts.
After all the LIES that have been put our in the last year, who even believes this mierda anymore?
You don't really believe that these fascists are going to let go of their political control mechanism do you?
They aren’t going to have any choice in the matter. Average Joe Sixpack isn’t going to follow any more rules after he hears “95% effective” and gets the shot. As the number of vaccinated persons climbs up into the 70 and 80%+ range and the case and death numbers plummet, everyone’s going back to work and going about their business. Nobody’s going to care about COVID-19 anymore.
Why do you think Joe Biden has been pivoting toward “climate change”? He knows this thing has a very limited shelf life. By the end of July, we’re back to normal.
They don't let the facts get in the way of their policies.
Are students attending school in person today, when the CDC has declared it safe?
Or is the Biden/Teacher's Union policy prevailing?
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