The cruise industry won’t return to pre-pandemic levels until 2030: analyst

Yahoo Finance ^ | Tue, December 22, 2020, | Alexis Christoforous

[Capt. Tom]

“The vaccine may not be a panacea for the cruise line industry versus airlines or leisure hotels, where the outlook is a little bit better,” Jason Ader, CEO of SpringOwl Asset Management, tells Yahoo Finance Live. “The perception of the cruise industry is that it's a floating petri dish. And that's a bad perception.”

“I don't think you'll see a return to peak profitability in the cruise industry until 2030,” says Ader. “And that's just not a function of demand coming back, because I do think the cruise industry will see people want to go on cruises. But the prices will be a challenge. ”

Research from the cruising agency Mundy Cruising found that 81% of luxury cruise passengers plan on taking a cruise next year, although the majority will wait until they have been vaccinated first.

“I give the cruise industry, Carnival, Royal, Norwegian — tremendous credit. They've made unbelievable innovation on surface cleaning, air filtration. They're doing an amazing job,”

“These programs for surface cleaning and air filtration just don't come without added expense,” says Ader. “The time to clean and the utilization of the cruise ship is going to be lower for the foreseeable future. So to get back to normal levels of profitability, it just doesn't take demand coming back, it takes pricing, not just to go to where it was, but to even greater than where it was to offset the added cost of air filtration and surface cleaning.

From 2016 to 2018 the cruise line operators went on a building boom and that means at least 15 new ships are scheduled to come online in 2021.

“We're facing pretty significant industry capacity over the next few years, which will require more ships to come out of service just to absorb that capacity,” says Ader.

[Capt. Tom]

When I see the cruise lines beating the drums for 2022 cruises I get that feeling that 2021 is going to be a stop and start year, and not going to be a moneymaker for the Lines.

This article puts the economic recovery out to 2030,wich surprises me that anyone would dare predict a total recovery for the Lines since the peak may have been in 2018 and 2019 and never be reached again.

IMHO The future of our country politically and economically is in doubt, as is the future of Cruise Lines. -Tom

[CoastWatcher]

The cruise industry will return as soon as governments remove their Jack Boots from the industries neck.

All those who view the cruises as super spreaders were never going to cruise anyway.

[G Larry]

I seem to have done things in the correct order.

I've done all of the Cruises and overseas travel that I care to.

Lots of places to discover and revisit here in the U.S.

[libh8er]

Ignore the analysts. Analysts are in the business of getting clicks or selling publications. Some said the airline industry was going to go out of business after 9/11.

[Zhang Fei]

Assuming vaccinations go as planned, and the pandemic ends, I expect full cruise line recovery by 2022. Ultimately, cruises provide good value for money. Cruise line companies will discount to the extent necessary to get people back, and word-of-mouth will pull all the usual suspects back on the ships, to the point that BAU resumes, price- and volume-wise. The thing about surveys conducted in the middle of disaster situations is that people are skeptical that the disaster will ever be resolved and that affects their responses.

Note that air traffic did not falter, despite 9/11, the massive dot com bust (that saw stock prices of key companies halved or more) and SARS.

A good chunk of the issue with the airlines (and cruise lines) during this pandemic has been an economic bust due in part to mandatory business restrictions imposed by various governments. Once the restrictions are history, due to the abatement of deaths from the virus, the economy will recover and spending on leisure travel will resume.

[Don Corleone]

The cruise industry won’t return to pre-pandemic levels until 2030: analyst

And only then hauling the unwashed to Island gulags to be retrained.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

It will never return if George Soros and Bill Gates have anything to say about it.

[entropy12]

The cruise industry will return as soon as governments remove their Jack Boots from the industries neck.

All those who view the cruises as super spreaders were never going to cruise anyway.

Exactly what I am thinking.

[entropy12]

I just got off the Vacations to go web site, and they have listings of hundreds and hundreds of cruises for sale now.
Most are in March or later in the year. Tons in November and later in 2021.

[entropy12]

Yes, the 36 cruises I have sailed on were all such fantastic bargains and so much good times, no way I can stay away as soon as the gov’t stops playing mother role.

[OrangeHoof]

I don’t see the cruise industry returning at all. How many people want to get on a boat with a bunch of total strangers who may be carrying deadly diseases with no way to get off it? Remember that one ship that they wouldn’t even allow to dock after a COVID outbreak?

The industry was in perilous shape before the shutdown. Now, it’s gotta be bankrupt.

[Zhang Fei]

[The industry was in perilous shape before the shutdown. ]

---

Carnival had record revenues in 2019. Profit margins weren’t too shabby, either - roughly in line with the preceding years.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CCL/financials?p=CCL

[JLAGRAYFOX]

One thing I learned early in life is, do not listen to, or heed any Pundits, Analysts, Pollsters and Politicians. In 99% of the time, they know zero!!! Bottom Line...IMHO is, they all “Stink” to High Heaven!!! End of Story, Case Closed!!!

[JennysCool]

Err ... Umm ... It’s a virus with a more-than-99-percent recovery rate.

Nothing to destroy a whole industry — any industry — over.

[Texas resident]

Cruises bad. Homeless camps good.

I wonder why the bums in the homeless camps aren’t dropping like flies?

[foreverfree]

bump

[Capt. Tom]

The cruise industry will return as soon as governments remove their Jack Boots from the industries neck.

That is a big part of the problem, but there are other problems they have to to face: like a changing world and Governments, slow restart of the airline Industry, competition from vacation locations that will undercut them in prices; as will their competitors for what I believe will be less passengers overall, a loss of income that will go on for over a year; and their own desire to overcompensate to please the ports and countries and medical groups that want to do them in; and having enormous passenger ships on order for 2021 and 2022; and a world press ready to jump on them as soon as a perceived bad incident occurs. ETC. - Tom

[moovova]

"The cruise industry won’t return" to pre-pandemic levels until 2030: analyst

There...I fixed it.

[Tennessee Nana]

I STILL need a cruise !!!!

I got my Christmas wish for snow here in SE TN...

Where’s my Christmas (and all through 2020) wish for a cruise or 10 ???

[Capt. Tom]

I got my Christmas wish for snow here in SE TN.HP

I am glad that worked out for you .

Here in coastal Mass. the temps got over 60 deg. and the rain wiped out all our snow by Christmas day.

A lot of cruisers go on the Christmas and New Years cruises but they didn't get their wishes this year.

For the first time in this pandemic I know 4 people close to me that have just come down with COVID in the last two weeks; one was hospitalized.
Looks like we will have more hurdles to overcome before cruising resumes. -Tom