Assuming vaccinations go as planned, and the pandemic ends, I expect full cruise line recovery by 2022. Ultimately, cruises provide good value for money. Cruise line companies will discount to the extent necessary to get people back, and word-of-mouth will pull all the usual suspects back on the ships, to the point that BAU resumes, price- and volume-wise. The thing about surveys conducted in the middle of disaster situations is that people are skeptical that the disaster will ever be resolved and that affects their responses.
Note that air traffic did not falter, despite 9/11, the massive dot com bust (that saw stock prices of key companies halved or more) and SARS.
A good chunk of the issue with the airlines (and cruise lines) during this pandemic has been an economic bust due in part to mandatory business restrictions imposed by various governments. Once the restrictions are history, due to the abatement of deaths from the virus, the economy will recover and spending on leisure travel will resume.
The cruise industry won’t return to pre-pandemic levels until 2030: analyst
And only then hauling the unwashed to Island gulags to be retrained.
Yes, the 36 cruises I have sailed on were all such fantastic bargains and so much good times, no way I can stay away as soon as the gov’t stops playing mother role.