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Asteroid Apophis Could Still Hit Earth in 2068, New Measurements Suggest
Gizmodo ^ | 27 Oct, 2020 | George Dvorsky

Posted on 10/28/2020 6:09:01 AM PDT by MtnClimber

Only a small handful of objects are known to pose a serious threat to Earth, and the gigantic asteroid Apophis is one of them. Scientists are now re-evaluating its potential to strike our planet in 48 years, owing to improved observations of the problematic asteroid.

Observations made earlier this year from the Subaru Telescope in Hawai’i are providing astronomers with a better sense of how the Yarkovsky effect is influencing the orbital path of asteroid 99942 Apophis. This effect is like a built-in propulsion system for asteroids, in which trace amounts of leaking radiation can alter an object’s momentum in space, causing it to drift ever-so-slightly from the path otherwise chosen by gravity.

“Without taking Yarkovsky drift into account, Apophis is still a threatening object, just not in 2068,” Dave Tholen, a researcher from the Institute for Astronomy at the University of Hawai’i and a co-author of the pending study, explained in an email. “With Yarkovsky taken into account, the 2068 impact scenario is still in play. Small, but non-zero.”

Tholen, along with Davide Farnocchia from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, crunched the new numbers, finding that Yarkovsky acceleration is keeping the Apophis threat inside the 2068 window. Their findings are laid out in new research presented at the 2020 virtual meeting of the Division for Planetary Sciences of the American Astronomical Society.

SNIP

A collision with Earth—as improbable as it appears to be—would be seriously bad. Apophis, packed with nickel and iron, measures over 1,000 feet (300 meters) wide, or over three football fields, if that’s how you like to picture it. An impact with the surface would release the equivalent of 1,151 megatons of TNT. Such a calamitous event happens on Earth around once every 80,000 years.


TOPICS: Astronomy; Science; Society
KEYWORDS: 2068; 99942apophis; apophis; asteroids; astronomy; catastrophism; davetholen; davidefarnocchia; science; yarkovskydrift; yarkovskyeffect
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To: JimRed; All

Perhaps you could post a topic in the search bar and find an old topic there.


41 posted on 10/28/2020 9:33:22 PM PDT by gleeaikin
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Per Wikipedia: “The object that excavated the crater was a nickel-iron meteorite about 160 feet (50 meters) across.”


42 posted on 10/28/2020 9:34:57 PM PDT by BenLurkin (The above is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire. Or both.)
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To: deadrock; All

You will be 41 in 48 years????


43 posted on 10/28/2020 9:35:17 PM PDT by gleeaikin
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To: JimRed; Verginius Rufus; Jim Robinson; SunkenCiv; All

I decided to test my idea. I entered the word volcano, and after going back 15 or 20 pages arrived at 2002. Actually I had seen a few old dates mixed with newer dates. Like a 2003 article in the 2017 batch. So here is a link I found about what volcano might have caused Exodus. The article’s guess was Santorini. Mine is Etna.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/786902/posts


44 posted on 10/28/2020 9:57:15 PM PDT by gleeaikin
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To: Campion

Move it to a into earth and mine it.


45 posted on 10/28/2020 9:58:28 PM PDT by BiteYourSelf ( Earth first we'll strip mine the other planets later.)
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To: BiteYourSelf
I meant Earth orbit.🥴
46 posted on 10/28/2020 10:00:44 PM PDT by BiteYourSelf ( Earth first we'll strip mine the other planets later.)
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To: gleeaikin
Three-quarters, and hundreds of feet deep -- the impactor was somewhat in excess of 100 meters in diameter (probably wasn't spherical).

47 posted on 10/28/2020 10:03:48 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Imagine an imaginary menagerie manager imagining managing an imaginary menagerie.)
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To: BenLurkin; SunkenCiv; All

So 1000 feet (300 merers) versus 160 feet (50 meters). Can anyone do a calculation for how much more volume in the larger object and probable size of the crater?


48 posted on 10/28/2020 10:03:57 PM PDT by gleeaikin
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To: gleeaikin
Whatever the multiple is, CUBE it (for the 3-d)... for example, 100 meters (and that's middle of the road, I've seen an estimate of 150 meters) is 1/3 of 300 meters, so rough estimate of mass of the latter is 27 times larger.

49 posted on 10/28/2020 10:07:46 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Imagine an imaginary menagerie manager imagining managing an imaginary menagerie.)
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To: MtnClimber

I’m thinking there will be a new heaven and a new earth by then and earth will have a King. The King of Kings and the Lord of Lords. Maybe it will hit the old earth.


50 posted on 10/28/2020 10:09:38 PM PDT by Cottonpatch
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To: JimRed
Good question! I'd like to go back to 2000-2001 when I was a newbie and read some of my opinions from back then. Have not figured it out yet.

You’ll need to file a FOIA request to make Google and the CIA cough them up. :)

51 posted on 10/29/2020 7:02:10 AM PDT by Mr. Jeeves ([CTRL]-[GALT]-[DELETE])
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